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National Situation Update: Friday, June 19, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
Severe thunderstorms are possible today for much of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Some storms will contain damaging winds and hail. Tornadoes are also possible. Morning storms are expected over Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and Iowa; afternoon thunderstorms are expected through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions.

South 
Near record high temperatures and high humidity levels will continue. With the high humidity, heat indices well over 100 degrees are expected today and Saturday. Thunderstorm activity should be confined to Virginia, northern North Carolina, the Florida Peninsula and western Texas.

Northeast
Rain will slowly move away from New England and Long Island; Maine should receive the steadiest and heaviest rain with 1 to 2 inches possible by nightfall.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today for southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia; strong winds and heavy rain may accompany some of these thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is possible from New Jersey to New England through Saturday night.

West
Phoenix has not hit 100 degrees since June 4, 2009 (a 14 day stretch through Thursday) - the longest since a 17 day streak in 1913. This streak is forecast to be broken by Sunday. A storm in the Pacific is expected to bring rain to the Northwest today.

Tropical Depression One-E off the coast of Mexico may possibly bring precipitation into New Mexico and West Texas over the weekend; some flooding is possible. (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located about 245 miles south of Mazatlan Mexico and about 190 miles west-northwest of Manzanillo Mexico.  The depression has increased its forward speed slightly and is now moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will be near Islas Marias later today and the Mainland coast of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph, with higher gusts.  There is still a possibility that the depression could become a tropical storm today. Moisture flowing northward from the depression could enhance rainfall in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo Mexico have diminished.  There is a low chance...less than 30 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific: 
No activity. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, June 18 2009:
Initial attack activity:  Light (93 new fires)
New large fires:  2
Large fires contained:  2
Uncontained large fires:  5
States affected:  AK, AZ & NM.   (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, NGB)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Friday, 19-Jun-2009 07:52:00 EDT