Skip to content

National Situation Update: Saturday, June 6, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

Midwest 
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast for parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas, north to western Michigan and northern Indiana. One to two inches of rain is expected from southern North Dakota and South Dakota to Upper Michigan. Severe thunderstorms are likely for parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The storms may contain large hail, strong winds, and possible tornadoes.
Northeast
Some afternoon thunderstorms are predicted in extreme northern New England.
South  
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Carolinas, central and southern Georgia and Florida.
Parts of southern Oklahoma and Texas will become extremely hot and dry with elevate fire danger.
West  
Thunderstorms, some severe, are possible from northern California and Oregon, to Montana and Wyoming with only isolated thunderstorms across the mountains of Utah and Colorado. Some storms may produce localized flash flooding. Critical fire weather is forecast for Arizona and New Mexico. (National Weather Service, various media sources)

Transition to El Nino Conditions during June – August, 2009 Could Impact 2009 Hurricane Season

For the past five consecutive months, increased sea surface temperatures (SST) and above-average temperatures have extended across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Also, subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies continued to increase in response to a large area of above-average temperatures.

These surface and subsurface oceanic anomalies typically precede the development of El Niño. An El Niño or La Niña is a temporary change in the climate of the Pacific Ocean. It can be seen in measurements of the sea surface temperature in the region around the equator.

El Nino produces stronger westerly wind at upper levels of the atmosphere across the tropical Atlantic than is normal during non-El Niño seasons. In general, El Niño events suppress Atlantic hurricane activity so fewer hurricanes than normal form in the Atlantic during August to October, the peak of Atlantic hurricane season.

Current observations, recent trends, and the dynamical model forecasts indicate that conditions are favorable for a transition to El Niño conditions during June ? August 2009.
Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for July 9, 2009. (NWS Climate Prediction Center, June 6, 2009)

Seasonal Drought Assessment -

Additional rainfall in the past week, along with robust rains predicted in upcoming weeks will have all but eliminated the widespread, severe drought that had affected Florida until very recently. Expect improvement across the southern Plains, especially for Oklahoma and northern Texas. Severe drought will most likely persist for southern Texas.

During the next few weeks, expect some relief from the long-term drought in the Upper Midwest. The trend for developing dryness in South Dakota and Nebraska should be reversed in the next few weeks as a wetter pattern forms.

Continued drought relief is forecast across the Southwestern U.S., largely because of the summer monsoon. For the West Coast, rainfall in the next few weeks should be beneficial for the northern quarter of California, Oregon, and extending into the northern and central Great Basin and Rockies.

In Alaska, short-term dryness will likely persist over the southeastern portions of the state, including the Panhandle, while increasing dryness is indicated over Hawaii. (NWS Climate Prediction Center, June 4, 2009)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity. (FEMA HQ)

Wildland Fire Outlook – June 2009 through September 2009

During June 2009, significantly above normal fire potential is expected across portions of Washington, California, and the western Great Lakes. For July through September 2009, significant fire potential is forecast to increase or persist across parts of California and Washington, and decrease across the western Great Lakes. Below normal significant fire potential is expected across portions of Nevada, Colorado, the Southwest, Southeast, and Puerto Rico from June through September, 2009.(National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook, Predictive Services, June 1, 2009)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
No cyclone activity affecting U.S. territories.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
National Fire Activity as of Friday, June 5, 2009:
Initial attack activity:  Light (153 new fires)
New large fires: 3
Large fires contained: 2
Uncontained large fires: 3
States affected: Alaska and Arizona (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 08-Jun-2009 07:36:59 EDT