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National Situation Update: Sunday, May 24, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

South
The low-pressure are in the Gulf area will move northward over the next three days from the lower Mississippi River Valley to Arkansas and Missouri. The heaviest rain will fall just east of its track, worsening existing river flooding. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are predicted for the remainder of the South. A cold front will move through the region over the next three days, with showers and thunderstorms moving toward the Southeast Coast, Gulf Coast and Texas by late week.
Midwest
 A cold front will move southward into the Ohio Valley, Missouri and Nebraska today bringing showers and thunderstorms. Today, temperatures in the 30s are forecast for parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan with some frost possible. On Monday and Tuesday, an upper-level disturbance, low-pressure area and weak front will move into the northern Plains and Minnesota. A front stalling in the Ohio Valley and Missouri area will move rain from Arkansas into Missouri. Several inches of rain are possible in the Ohio Valley early in the week.  Heavy rain will move into parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota on Monday. Wednesday into Thursday, heavy rain and thunderstorms will move into the Ohio Valley.
Northeast
A second cold front will move through New England and southward into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday, preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Monday and Tuesday the Mid-Atlantic will receive more showers and thunderstorms. Midweek, the front will push northward as a warm front, moving showers northward across New York and New England. Forecast for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday are due to a cold front moving through the Northeast.
West
Scattered thunderstorms are possible from Montana to northern New Mexico today with isolated thunderstorms extending westward into the Nevada Great Basin and the mountains of northern California. Thunderstorms are predicted Monday for Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah and Colorado. Tuesday through Friday, scattered thunderstorms will persist, mainly from Wyoming and Utah, through Colorado, to New Mexico.The California central valley may see highs near 90 with parts of the desert southwest seeing highs near 100.(National Weather Service, various media sources)

H1N1 Influenza Outbreak Update

H1N1 Flu Outbreak - USA
The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) will now publish updated information Monday, Wednesday and Friday each week, except holidays.  The H1N1 Influenza Outbreak continues to grow in the United States. As of 11:00 am EDT on Friday, May 22, 2009, the CDC reported 6,552 confirmed and probable cases in 48 states including the District of Columbia. The CDC reports 10 confirmed fatalities in the United States.
H1N1 Influenza Outbreak - International
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), as of 2:00 am EDT on Friday, May 23, 2009, there were 12,022 confirmed cases in 43 countries, including the United States. Mexico has 3,892 confirmed cases and 75 fatalities.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.   (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic:
The area of low pressure centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico has moved inland near the Alabama-Mississippi border.  This system is likely to produce locally heavy rains over portions of the southeastern United States during the next day or two. 
Eastern Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico are disorganized.  Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development.  There is a low chance, less than 30%, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
No activity affecting US territories(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Beginning on May 23 at 5:51 pm. EDT a swarm of nine (9) earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 1.5 to 4.7 with depths of .1 to 3.2 miles have occurred 7 to 8 miles SSE of Keeler, California (Central California). No tsunamis, damage or injuries reported. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
National Fire Activity as of  Saturday, May 23, 2009:
Initial attack activity:  Light (136 new fires)

New large fires:  0
Large fires contained:  0
Uncontained large fires:  3

Fire Weather: Isolated dry storms are possible across western Nevada, the Sierra Nevada of California and into southern Idaho.  Relative humidity will increase with scattered showers across portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, NGB)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:24:57 EDT