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National Situation Update: Saturday, May 23, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

South
An area of low pressure off the Gulf Coast may become a tropical depression before landfall today. Heavy rain will move into parts of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi,
Louisiana, Tennessee and Arkansas. Several inches of rain are expected with this system. Flooding is possible over the next few days from lower Mississippi River Basin to the Ozarks. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will move into Tennessee and the Carolinas.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the southern Plains, however southern Texas will see little or no rain. Rain and thunderstorms from Arkansas and Tennessee southward to the northern Gulf Coast are forecast for Monday. Isolated thunderstorms are predicted for the southern Plains. Flood Warnings remain in effect for rivers in the mid and lower Mississippi Valley.
West
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the holiday weekend for the Rockies and the Front Range. Isolated thunderstorms will extend westward into the Nevada Great Basin, Oregon and the Sierra. The heaviest rain may saturate the Colorado Rockies, producing flash flooding.
Midwest
A cold front will move through the Great Lakes today and will stall over southern Ohio and the central Plains through Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into most of the region. Thunderstorms will move into the Plains and across Missouri and the Ohio Valley where rainfall could locally exceed 3 inches.
Northeast
A cold front approaching the eastern Great Lakes late in the day may bring widely scattered thunderstorms over much of the region except for northern Maine and the southern mid-Atlantic.
Thunderstorms could develop across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will expand northward across the region by midweek. (National Weather Service, various media sources)

H1N1 Influenza Outbreak Update

H1N1 Flu Outbreak - USA
The H1N1 Influenza Outbreak continues to grow in the United States. As of 11:00 am EDT on Friday, May 22, 2009, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported 6,552 confirmed and probable cases in 47 states and the District of Columbia. The CDC reports 9 confirmed fatalities in the United States.

H1N1 Influenza Outbreak - International
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), as of 2:00 am EDT on Friday, May 27, 2009, there were 11,168 confirmed cases and 86 deaths in 42 countries, including the United States. Mexico has 3,892 confirmed cases and 75 fatalities.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic:
An area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is located 200 miles south of Pensacola, Florida. Additional development of this system is possible and a Tropical Depression could form before the low moves inland over the northern Gulf Coast today. There is a 30-50 percent chance that this system could become a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Heavy rains and occasionally gusty winds are expected along the northern Gulf Coast. 
Eastern Pacific:
An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico remains poorly organized. There is a less than 30 percent chance that this system becomes a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
No activity affecting US territories (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At 3:24 p.m. EDT on May 22, 2009, a 5.7 magnitude earthquake occurred 95 miles SE of Mexico City, Mexico, at a depth of 34.8 miles.(USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
National Fire Activity as of Friday, May 22, 2009:
Initial attack activity:  Moderate (209 new fires)
New large fires:  2
Large fires contained:  3
Uncontained large fires:  3
Fire Weather: Cooler over the Great Lakes with low humidity over portions of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Southwest and Florida. Mild onshore flow persists over southern California with a few thunderstorms over the southern Sierras.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, NGB)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On May 22, 2009, an amendment to Major Disaster Declaration request was received from the Governor of Kentucky for Severe Storms, Heavy Rains, Flooding, High Winds, Tornadoes and Mudslides that occurred May 3-20, 2009. The Governor is now requesting Individual Assistance for 12 counties, Public Assistance for 22 counties, and Hazard Mitigation statewide. The amended request also includes Federal funding at 100% for debris removal and emergency protective measures under the Public Assistance program, and direct Federal assistance for the first seven (7) days. (FEMA HQ)