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National Situation Update: Friday, May 22, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

South
Parts of Florida will continue to see heavy rain today, and portions of the Gulf Coast may receive accumulations ranging between four and six inches through the weekend.  Showers and thunderstorms are also possible across the southern Plains, eastern Tennessee, north Georgia and the Carolinas.
Flood Warnings remain in effect for rivers in the mid and lower Mississippi Valley.
West
Heavy rain continues to fall across portions of the Southwest and could spread northward into parts of Montana by Sunday.  Flash Flooding is possible in the Colorado Rockies.  Flood Advisories have been issued at several gauge points along the Colorado River.  Rapid snowmelt due to unseasonably mild weather has resulted in high water levels on many rivers across the region. Minor flooding of low lying areas is possible.
Midwest
A cold front entering the Upper Midwest from Canada may produce showers and thunderstorms from southern North Dakota to Kansas; severe weather is unlikely.  Flood Warnings continue for several rivers in the Upper Midwest.
Northeast
No significant weather is forecast. (National Weather Service, various media sources)

H1N1 Influenza Outbreak Update

H1N1 Flu Outbreak - USA
The H1N1 Influenza Outbreak continues to grow in the United States. As of 11:00 am EDT on Thursday, May 21, 2009, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported 5,764 confirmed and probable cases in 48 states and the District of Columbia. The CDC reports 9 confirmed fatalities in the United States.

H1N1 Influenza Outbreak - International
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), as of 2:00 am EDT on Thursday, May 21, 2009, there were 11,034 confirmed cases in 41 countries, including the United States. Mexico has 3,892 confirmed cases and 75 fatalities.

NOAA Issues Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Encourages Preparedness

NOAA forecasters say a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. However, as with any season, the need to prepare for the possibility of a storm striking near you is essential.   "Today, more than 35 million Americans live in regions most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes," Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said. "Timely and accurate warnings of severe weather help save lives and property. Public awareness and public preparedness are the best defenses against a hurricane."

In its initial outlook for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November, NOAA's National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center calls for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season. Global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of having 9 to 14 named storms, of which 4 to 7 could become hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5).  "This outlook is a guide to the overall expected seasonal activity. However, the outlook is not just about the numbers, it's also about taking action," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "Prepare for each and every season regardless of the seasonal outlook. Even a near- or below-normal season can produce land-falling hurricanes, and it only takes one land-falling storm to make it a bad season."

Tropical systems acquire a name upon reaching tropical storm strength with sustained winds of at least 39 mph.  The first for 2009 will be Ana.  NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.
(Excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090521_atlantichurricane.html)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern Pacific:
No significant activity
Western Pacific:
No activity affecting US territories (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, May 21, 2009:
Initial attack activity:  Light (106 new fires)
New large fires:  1
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires:  4
Fire Weather: A flattened upper ridge and surface high will result in warm and dry weather from the southern plains into the mid Atlantic and New England.  Scattered thunderstorms will occur over the Four Corners States with moisture moving northward ahead of a weak upper low over Southern California, with isolated dry storms likely over eastern central Nevada during the afternoon. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, NGB)

Disaster Declaration Activity

As of May 21, 2009, Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1839-DR for the State of Tennessee, dated May 15, 2009, is amended (Amendment #1) to add Humphreys County for Public Assistance. 

As of May 21, 2009, Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1833-DR for the State of Georgia, dated April 23, 2009, is amended (Amendment #4) to add Baker and Early counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance.) (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:25:02 EDT