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National Situation Update: Monday, May 11, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

West:
A series of disturbances moving in off the Pacific, will produce showers in the lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest and mountain snow from the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. Snow levels will fall to 3000 feet in the Washington Cascades by tomorrow night.  To the south, high pressure moving in the from the Pacific along with low pressure over the Southwest will bring strong, northerly winds, elevated temperatures, and lower humidity levels back to portions of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties, increasing the fire danger.  The high pressure will continue to keep the Desert Southwest hot and dry with high temperatures above 100 and remaining about 10 degrees above average until midweek.
Midwest:
Under high pressure, the area around the Great Lakes will be cold and dry. Frost and freeze advisories/warnings are in place across lower Michigan, northern Indiana and northwest Ohio for this morning.  Areas from southern Missouri to Ohio may see scattered showers.  A stationary front extends across the nation from Texas to the Carolinas. North of the frontal boundary, the Southern Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley will get a significant amount of rain, rain showers and thunderstorms.  Some areas will receive an inch or more of precipitation today.  The threat of severe thunderstorm activity will again be concentrated in southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and eastern Texas until this afternoon. 
South:
The stationary front will produce a broad swath of precipitation across the Gulf Coast states with a chance of thunderstorm activity. Some areas will receive an inch or more of precipitation today.
Tuesday, as the front moves southward, the Florida Peninsula will see increasing cloudiness and the threat of scattered thunderstorms.
Northeast:
A cold and dry Canadian high pressure system will dominate the weather over New England. A frost advisory is in effect until 8:00 am EDT for northern Pennsylvania, southern New York and southern New England.   The Mid-Atlantic region will have periods of steady rain or frequent showers as a weak disturbance aloft moves through. (National Weather Service, various media sources)

H1N1 Influenza Outbreak Update

H1N1 Flu Outbreak - USA
The H1N1 Influenza Outbreak continues to grow in the United States. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday, May 10, 2009, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported 2,532 laboratory-confirmed cases in 43 states.  There were 98 hospitalizations, including three confirmed deaths in the US.  As of Sunday, May 10, 2009, there were 865 probable cases in 41 states.

H1N1 Influenza Outbreak - International
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), as of 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday, May 10, 2009, 4,379 confirmed cases in 29 countries, including the US was reported.  Mexico had 1,626 confirmed cases of H1N1, including 45 deaths

Alaska Flooding Update

Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Yukon river until 8:00 am AKDT May 11, 2009, and the Lower Kuskokwim River Delta until 8:00 am AKDT May 12, 2009.  AK SECC activated at Level 4, 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. AKDT, with two additional staff assigned.  One Red Cross shelter has opened in the town of Eagle for residents displaced by Yukon River flooding (population unknown).  No Federal Assistance has been requested.  (Region X, Bothell MOC)

Severe Weather/Tornadoes

Region III:
West Virginia Flooding
WV Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management are at partial activation due to flooding.  The Governor has declared six (6) counties and surrounding areas local disaster areas (McDowell, Mingo, Raleigh, Boone, Logan and Wyoming).  PDA Teams deploying to participate in Joint/Federal assessments are starting on May 11, 2009.  Sixty miles of highway are closed making homes inaccessible.  There have been 15 bridges destroyed and 25 damaged.  Damage assessment:  300-400 homes destroyed, 1,000 damaged, 2,000-3,000 homes are affected  by flooding.  There are 254 customers without power; restoration is unknown.  The state potable water needs are being met by adequate supplies from local vendors.  No unmet needs or anticipated requests for Federal Assistance.

Region V:
Illinois
National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed that an EF-1 tornado touched down in northern Jackson County, resulting in tree debris, downed power poles and building damage.  Local officials are continuing damage assessments in Jackson, Franklin and Williamson counties.  Water treatment plants in Williamson and Jackson counties are without power.  Boil Water Order has been issued in Carbondale (Jackson County), population 26,367.  38,967 customers are without power and the restoration is unknown.  There are no fatalities.  State Rte 13 remains closed in Carbondale.  No request for Federal assistance.

Region VII:
Missouri
State Emergency Managemant Agency (SEMA) has activated at Level 1, SEMA staff only.  There are four (4) confirmed tornadoes, four (4) fatalities and 12 injuries reported.  Two shelters are open with a population of 10.  Forty-eight homes have been destroyed and 48,000 customers remain without power; restoration unknown.  No requests for Federal assistance have been received.

Mild Solar Storm Season Predicted

Although its peak is still four years away, a new active period of solar storms will be the weakest since 1928, predicts an international panel of experts led by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and funded by NASA. Despite the prediction, Earth is still vulnerable to a severe solar storm.
Solar storms are eruptions of energy and matter that escape from the sun and may head toward Earth, where even a weak storm can damage satellites and power grids, disrupting communications, the electric power supply and GPS. A single strong blast of "solar wind" can threaten national security, transportation, financial services and other essential functions.
The panel predicts the upcoming "Solar Cycle 24" will peak in May 2013 with 90 sunspots per day on average. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since number 16, which peaked at 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began.
The most common measure of a solar cycle's intensity is the number of sunspots-Earth-sized blotches on the sun marking areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that solar storms will occur, but a major storm can occur at any time.
"As with hurricanes, whether a cycle is active or weak refers to the number of storms, but everyone needs to remember it only takes one powerful storm to cause huge problems," said NOAA scientist Doug Biesecker, who chairs the panel. "The strongest solar storm on record occurred in 1859 during another below-average cycle." The storm shorted out telegraph wires, causing fires in North America and Europe, sent readings of Earth's magnetic field soaring, and produced northern lights so bright that people read newspapers by their light. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a storm that severe occurred today, it could cause $1-2 trillion in damages the first year and require four to 10 years for recovery.
As the world economy becomes more reliant on satellite-based communications and interlinked power grids, interest in solar activity has grown dramatically.
(excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090508_solarstorm.html)

Volcano Activity:

Mount Redoubt, AK
A growing lava dome at the summit may be increasingly unstable.  Aviation Color Code remains at ORANGE; Alert Level remains at WATCH. (AVO)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern Pacific:
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season will officially start on Friday, May 15, and run through November 30th.
Western Pacific:
No activity affecting US territories.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Jesusita Fire, Santa Barbara, CA
Cal Fire reported 8,733 acres burned as of Sunday, May 10, 2009, at 65% contained.  Full containment is expected on May 13.  There are 31 residences destroyed and 47 residences damaged.  Evacuations are gradually being lifted; 90% of the evacuated population has returned home.  Two  shelters remain open with 135 people.  There are 4,543 personnel assigned to the incident  with 18 firefighter injuries reported.  Current equipment in use:  37 dozers, 45 water tenders, 5 air tankers and 15 helicopters.   FMAG FM-2817 was approved on May 6, 2009.  No requests for Federal Assistance have been received.  (FEMA Region IX RRCC, NWS, InciWeb, CalFire, Santa Barbara County, State of CA)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:25:04 EDT