National Situation Update: Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
A large storm system will produce precipitation over most of the region. Snow will fall in the Sierra Nevada's above 4,500 feet. Areas above 7,000 feet will see six inches to a foot of new snow. A tight pressure gradient will cause strong gusty northwesterly winds and produce blowing dust and sand from southern California to Texas. Gusty winds and low relative humidity will result in high fire danger. Red Flag warnings are in effect for parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and western Texas. The next weather system will impact the Pacific Northwest and Northern California with rain and mountain snow tomorrow.
Midwest:
Much of the region will be dry except for some light showers or rain/snow mixed for portions of northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A few showers are forecast over portions of Indiana, Ohio, and eastern Kentucky this evening. The next storm to affect the region will emerge from the Rockies tomorrow and Friday spreading rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley.
South:
Under high pressure, the region will be dry and cold. This morning's lows over most of the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee will be in the 30s and some 20s. South Florida will start the day in the mid 50s. A new storm system will produce showers and thunderstorms on Thursday night from eastern Texas to the lower-Mississippi Valley.
Northeast:
A trough of low pressure, extending southward from a low over Canada, will continue to produce precipitation from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. Inland areas from Pennsylvania to Maine will have snow. Storm totals of up to a foot are likely east of Lake Ontario in the Tug Hill Plateau and in the higher elevations east of Lake Erie. A weak disturbance will swing through the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night bringing some showers to portions of the Virginias and some snow in the mountains.(NWS, Various Media Sources)

Red River Flood Preparations

Federal Response:
FEMA Headquarters

FEMA NRCC is at Watch/Steady State 24/7 (Watch only)
National IMAT West deployed to ND EOC

Region VIII:

RRCC at Watch/Steady State 6:30 a.m. - 6:30 p.m. MDT
ERT-A is deployed to ND EOC
FEMA LNO is deployed to SD OEM providing technical assistance to the State in its planning for the second crest in mid-April
Denver MERS will re-deploy assets today to support FEMA Region VIII with setting up 4 fixed Disaster Recovery Centers sites

Current Situation:
North Dakota:

State EOC remains activated at Level 1 (24/7 operations)
IA PDAs are continuing; estimated completion date unknown
Second Red River crest forecast Apr 15-22; expected to equal or exceed previous river crest in Fargo
The Grand Forks AFB NLSA will remain open until the second river crest occurs

Region V

RRCC at Level III, 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. CDT with all ESFs and other federal agencies on standby
Region V IMAT deployed to MN SEOC
FEMA LNO released from MN SEOC
Command and control of FEMA-3304-EM scheduled to transition to the JFO today, in Dilworth, MN

Current Situation:
Minnesota:

State EOC remains fully activated 8:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT; State agencies on standby

Flooding and Severe Weather in the South

Heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding over southern Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and northern Florida on March 26 and continuing. Numerous flood warnings exist throughout the Region

Region IV Concerns / RRCC Status:

RRCC - Level III, 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. EDT as of Apr 8, 2009
FEMA LNOs in FL & GA EOC
Selected IMAT members traveling to Tallahassee, FL today to assist the State EOC with operations and planning activities; Situation Awareness team dispatched to flooded area to serve as liaison with State Management Team
FCO-designee monitoring from Florida EOC
States of Emergency declared in MS, AL, GA & FL
3 rivers in GA and 5 in FL predicted to reach major flooding
Flooding will move east and affect the Suwannee River Basin

Georgia

EOC activated Level II (Partial Activation), 24/7
1 fatality
Voluntary evacuations for flood prone areas: Brooks, Colquitt, Decatur, Lowndes, Miller, Pierce, Thomas and Tift Counties
2 shelters / 18 occupants
Joint IA PDAs for 19 counties ongoing; PA PDAs will begin today
The following damages were reported SEOC as of: 4:30 EDT Apr 6, 2009
- Single Family Homes: Major: 216 Destroyed: 10
- Mobile Homes: Major: 95 Destroyed: 15
- Multi Family Dwellings: Major: 1
- Businesses: Major: 20

Florida

EOC will be activated Level I (Full Activation), 24/7 today at 7:00 a.m. EDT
Record flooding in may locations
Interstate 75 may also be impacted (South of Valdosta, GA)
2 confirmed fatalities.
2 shelter / 0 occupants
Joint PA PDAs ongoing for 12 counties; IA PDAs in 8 counties will begin Apr 9
US 90 at the Suwannee River (Madison and Suwannee County line) could be closed as early as Apr 9
I-10 at the Suwannee River could be closed as early as Apr 10 if water levels continue to rise

Alabama

EOC activated Level III (Partial Activation), 24/7
2 fatalities (Houston County)
Power restored to most customers
PA PDAs for 20 counties and IA PDAs for 3 counties ongoing (FEMA Region IV)

Mt Redoubt

The eruption of Redoubt volcano continues with growth of a lava dome in the summit crater. Small earthquakes and tremors continue
A small plume of steam and ash is observed in satellite and radar data, extending 10-15 miles to the southeast of the volcano at an approximate height of 15,000-20,000 ft
The aviation color code ORANGE; alert level WATCH
AVO continues to be staffed 24 hours per day (USGS/Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FEMA-2804-FM-TX was issued for the Steele Fire in Callahan County near Clyde, TX. The fire has burned 200 acres and there have been 100 evacuations with 200 residences threatened and 2 homes lost. The fire is 10 percent contained. There is no estimated date for full containment. (FEMA HQ)

Colorado State University 2009 Hurricane Forecast

Hurricane experts at Colorado State University have scaled back their prediction for the Atlantic and now say this will be an average season with 12 named storms, including six hurricanes. Two of them could be major hurricanes.
Researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach had earlier predicted an above-average season. Gray said yesterday the forecast was dialed down because of improved chances of El Nino conditions that suppress hurricane formation.
NOAA will issue its initial 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook in May, prior to the official start of the season on June 1.(Colorado State University, Media Sources)

NOAA Forecasters: Red River Will Crest Again in Late April

Warming temperatures in the Red River of the North basin will begin melting ice and snowpack, setting the stage for a dangerous second crest in Fargo, N.D., and Moorhead, Minn., later this month, according to forecasters with NOAA's National Weather Service.
After using all available forecast temperature information to assess its impact on the remaining snow and ice in the Red River Basin, the National Weather Service updated the outlook for the second crest at Fargo. The current National Weather Service outlook indicates a high probability (75 percent chance) of reaching or exceeding 41 feet and a 25 percent chance of reaching or exceeding 42.8 feet. This second crest currently is expected to occur in the latter half of April.(Excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090403_redriver.html)

National Tornado Experiment to Begin in May

A collaborative nationwide project exploring the origins, structure and evolution of tornadoes will occur from May 10 through June 13 in the central United States. The project, Verification of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment2 (VORTEX2 or V2), is the largest and most ambitious attempt to study tornadoes in history and will involve more than 50 scientists and 40 research vehicles, including 10 mobile radars.
"Data collected from V2 will help researchers understand how tornadoes form and how the large-scale environment of thunderstorms is related to tornado formation," according to Louis Wicker, research meteorologist with NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory and V2 co-principal investigator.(Excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090406_tornado.html)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting U.S territories in the Western Pacific. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (USGS)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Initial attack activity: Light (163 new fires)
New large fires: 6
Large fires contained: 10
Uncontained large fires: 12
(National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity