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National Situation Update: Thursday, March 26, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant Weather

Midwest:
Three separate systems will impact portions of the region on Thursday.   Low pressure moving out of the Southeast into the Northeast will bring some showers to portions of the eastern Ohio Valley.  Another area of low pressure weakening over southern Canada will produce some snow showers in the Upper Midwest.  A third, stronger system will begin to develop in the southern High Plains. Gusty, northerly winds will develop over Nebraska and western Kansas.

Snow or rain changing to snow will develop in western Kansas and southwest Nebraska by Thursday night. Accumulations of 6 inches or more will be possible in portions of southwest Kansas.  Rain will begin to move out of eastern Kansas Thursday night and into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Friday morning.

Highs on Thursday will range from the 20s and 30s in the Northern Plains and Minnesota to the 60s and near 70 across portions of the mid-Mississippi and lower-Ohio Valleys. 

South:
Rain and thunderstorms predicted on Thursday continuing into the weekend.

A wave of low pressure will be moving out of the southeastern part of the region early in the day with heavy rain and the possibility of some severe thunderstorms.  The possibility of thunderstorms, some severe, through Thursday night will extend westward through the lower-Mississippi Valley to near the Oklahoma/Texas border.

There is a possibility of a significant severe weather outbreak on Friday extending from eastern Texas to the lower-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The rain and thunderstorms associated with this low pressure will spread through the rest of the Southeast through the weekend.

Over the next several days, many areas in the South may pick up 3 or more inches of rainfall with some locations possibly receiving as much as 6 inches.  Thursday night into Friday will be the possibility of a major snowstorm with heavy wet accumulating snow in the Texas Panhandle to southwest Kansas to northwest Oklahoma.

West:
An upper-level low moving across the Intermountain West will bring snow through the Rockies. Portions of the Colorado Rockies are likely to see 1 to 2 feet with more than 8 inches possible in the northern New Mexico Mountains.  Along the Front Range, a foot or more of snow is possible in the foothills and the Palmer Divide along with blowing, drifting and low visibilities.  Accumulating snow and wind are also likely to impact the I-25 corridor including Denver, Pueblo and Colorado Springs. More than 8 inches of snow is possible along the I-25 urban corridor.

Snow will taper off in the Northern Rockies as high pressure builds south out of Canada.
Gusty winds through portions of Utah, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico

The national weather service in Las Vegas, NM has issued a red flag warning for potions of Las Vegas, NM which is in effect from 12:00 p.m. PDT /12:00 p.m. MDT to 8:00p.m.PDT/8:00 p.m. MDT Thursday.

Red flag warning remains in effect from noon to 9:00 p.m. MDT Thursday for southwest and south central New Mexico and for all of far west Texas. Red flag warning remains in effect from noon to 9:00 p.m. MDT Thursday.

The national weather service in Tucson has issued a red flag warning for southeast Pinal County, Tohono O'Odham Nation, Graham County south of Gila River, Santa Cruz County, Cochise County and eastern Pima County which is in effect from 11:00 a.m. To 7:00 p.m. MDT Thursday.

The national weather service in Phoenix has issued a red flag warning for the lower Colorado River Valley, the southwest and south central Arizona deserts and southern Gila County which is in effect from noon MST /noon PDT to 7:00 p.m. MST/7:00 p.m. PDT Thursday.(NWS, Media Sources)

Red River Flood Preparations

States
Minnesota (Region V)

  • SEOC is activated - full activation 24/7.
  • The Governor of Minnesota requested an expedited Disaster Declaration on Mar 25, 2009.
  • The Governor declared a State of Emergency March 20 for seven counties.
  • NG operations are focused on levee patrolling and performing traffic control points.
  • The Minnesota Department of Health Department Operations Center was partially activated on March 25 at 8:00 A.M. CDT.
  • The City of Perley (Norman County) is raising dike levels by one foot; operations ongoing.
  • The MN NG has deployed seven Generator Light Sets and 12, five ton trucks to the City of Moorhead.
  • ARC has opened a shelter at the University of Minnesota-Crookston with an unknown population.
  • ARC has opened shelters in Bemidji (Beltrami County) and Silver Bay Area (Lake County) with a population of 3.
  • MDOT is currently building a four foot high dike on 1500 feet of the North side of I-94 in Moorhead.
  • No unmet needs. (Reg V DSAR, MN HSEM, FEMA VTC Mar 25)

North Dakota (Region VIII)

  • EOC is at Level II; 24/7
  • The President approved Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1829-DR for North Dakota on March 24, 2009.
  • Local, state and Federal officials, at the direction of Governor Hoeven, engaged Advanced Explosives Demolition (AED) Team to address a major ice jam south of Bismarck. Demolition activities took place on March 25 with a gradual relief of the ice jam.  A second demolition mission is underway. They are waiting on additional quantities of C4.
  • The ice jam north of Bismarck is reported to be two miles long.
  • An ice and log jam at the railroad bridge North of Dickey (LaMoure County) is causing residents along the river to voluntarily evacuate themselves and their livestock.
  • JFO will be operational in Bismarck and Fargo by March 30.
  • Rescue efforts of stranded residents are ongoing in Burleigh County.
  • Approximately 4,000 people will be evacuated from Burleigh County.
  • ARC shelter at First Evangelical Free Church in Bismarck with unknown number of occupants.
  • The Missouri River at Mandan is currently at 15.95 feet. If the river reaches 16.7 feet, a voluntary evacuation notice will be issued. If the river's level reaches 18 feet, evacuation will be mandatory.
  • A voluntary evacuation order was issued for rural residents along lower lying areas of the James River between the cities of Adrian and LaMoure.
  • Two trailer courts are totally inundated, Airport Village and Skyway Park.
  • A Boil Water Order for City of Washburn residents is expected to continue for three to four weeks due to the quality of Missouri River water.
  • As of 8:00 a.m. EDT March 25, the ND DOE Services reports several counties with power outages. Specific customer outage data have not been reported. Available power information as follows: 
    • Power outages have occurred in the following towns: Nortonville, Kulm, and north of Jud. Utility crews are working on restoration.
    • Grant, Hettinger, Morton, and Pembina Counties - Intermittent power outages reported.
    • Wells and Eddy Counties - Power lines are down due to ice buildup.
  • Rural residents of LaMoure County that are without power may not be repaired for 3-4 days.
  • I-94 is closed between Oriska to Casselton
  • The City of Fargo is building/topping off earthen levees, building a sandbag dike and deploying HESCO flood protection.
  • Two USAF rescue helicopters arrived at the Bismarck Army Aviation Support Facility to support rescue hoist operations.
  • National Guard troops assisting with sandbagging, patrolling of dikes and Traffic Control Points.
  • The NWS has forecast the river in Fargo will continue rising to between 39 and 41 feet by March 28. (Reg VIII DSAR, Reg VIII DoD Director, FEMA VTC Mar 25, NDDOE Mar 25)

Bismarck, ND, mayor 'cautiously optimistic'

Demolition crews blasted chunks of ice near a huge ice jam in the Missouri River on Wednesday in a bid to open a channel, like pulling out a giant plug to drain a flood threatening the city. Officials planned two more rounds of explosives.
"We are cautiously optimistic," Bismarck Mayor John Warford said after explosives detonated on about 500 feet of ice just south of the jam.

Water backing up behind the dam of car-size ice blocks already had forced the evacuation of about 1,700 people from low-lying areas in North Dakota's capital city.  Gov. John Hoeven said the first demolition round, "blew a large chunk" of ice out of the river.
"Right away, you could see water moving, as well as ice and trees that were in the water," he said. "Clearly, they are moving water through the ice jam now."

Meanwhile, on the eastern side of the state, volunteers continued stacking sandbags to protect Fargo amid new concern over the rising Red River. After days of predicting a crest ranging from 39 to 41 feet, the National Weather Service settled on the higher number.

City officials said they would build their dikes a foot higher than planned, to 43 feet, and would distribute evacuation information to residents on Thursday. The river was projected to crest on Saturday afternoon.

Mayor Dennis Walaker described 41 feet as "uncharted territory." The Red's record high at Fargo was 40.1 feet in 1897. Walaker said he was still confident the city would beat the flood, but that contingency plans were needed.  Police Chief Keith Ternes urged people with disabilities to consider leaving the city.

In Bismarck, the Missouri River jam was created by ice floating down the Heart River, with some chunks up to 3 feet thick and the size of small cars. The jam was about 11 miles downstream from the city.  "The ice is just solid as a rock," the Assistant Water Commission Engineer said.

Crews from Advanced Explosives Demolition, with help from National Guard, the Army Corps of Engineers and the Coast Guard, drilled 80 holes in the ice to detonate clay-like explosives. The state's homeland security director, said salt would be used to help speed the breakup and officials were considering backhoes to break up ice sheets near the river's west bank.  An Army Corps of Engineers hydraulic engineer, said ice downstream from that jam appeared to be melting and weakening, meaning less resistance once the jam is broken loose.  A second ice jam about 10 miles upstream of Bismarck was also a concern, holding back a growing reservoir.

The National Weather Service posted a flash flood warning for a three-county area, saying the integrity of that ice jam, in an area called Double Ditch, was unpredictable.
Residents of low-lying subdivisions in Bismarck and neighboring Mandan had been told to evacuate.  Minot Air Force Base was deploying two rescue helicopters to Bismarck, in case people need to be saved from floodwaters.

More sandbagging was planned in part of Grand Forks, the city hardest hit by the 1997 Red River flood. An elaborate dike system was built after that disaster. The Red rose to 42.5 feet in Grand Forks by midday Wednesday with a crest near 52 feet projected for Monday. The record there was 54.4 feet, set in 1997.

Snow fell Wednesday in the Red River Valley region, with several inches on the ground, and people were advised not to travel. The continuing bad weather forced Grand Forks to cancel two busloads of volunteers who planned to head upstream to Fargo. The Bismarck area got 8 inches of snow, the weather service said Wednesday morning.

The National Weather Service said 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected in Bismarck on Thursday, while up to 1 inch is expected in Fargo.  The blizzard had blocked hundreds of miles of highways in Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, North Dakota and Nebraska. The southwestern North Dakota town of Marmarth reported 22.5 inches of snow and up to 2.5 feet of snow fell in South Dakota's rugged Black Hills.  (Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Eastern Pacific:
There are no current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting U.S territories in the Western Pacific.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A swarm of earthquakes near Bombay Beach, CA continue. They range from 1.3 to 2.5 magnitude with a depth of 2.5 - 8.2 miles. No reports of damage or injuries. (USGS, AK Earthquake Information Center, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Governor of Minnesota requested an expedited Disaster Declaration on Mar 25, 2009 for Severe Storms and Flooding. He is requesting IA & PA for 7 counties (Clay, Kittson, Marshall, Norman, Polk, Traverse & Wilkin) (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:26:40 EDT