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National Situation Update: Monday, March 23, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Midwest
Two strong storm systems are moving toward the Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, and from the Dakotas to central parts of Oklahoma. A low is moving east from Colorado to Minnesota, with the other coming from the Pacific Northwest. The combined storms will produce a variety of weather and cause multiple impacts on the region.
Rain, strong winds and severe thunderstorms will impact areas from the Dakotas to the western Great Lakes. This will aggravate the already serious flooding for the Red River and its tributaries in western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. Numerous Flood Warnings remain in effect for parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Blizzard Warnings are in effect this morning through Tuesday afternoon due to heavy snowfall and strong winds in western South Dakota and western Nebraska.
West
Heavy snow and strong winds are forecast for southern Montana, Wyoming and the mountains of Utah and Colorado; both lower and higher terrains may experience a foot or more of new snow.
Numerous Blizzard Warnings are in effect this morning through Tuesday afternoon for Wyoming and Montana. Strong winds are anticipated for portions of the Southwest including New Mexico where a high fire danger exists. Red Flag Warnings will be in effect on Monday for most of New Mexico and western Texas.
South
Strong onshore winds, active rip currents, high surf and scattered showers continue in the southeast coastal areas. Severe thunderstorms are possible for portions of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Monday into early Tuesday.
Northeast
Minor snow showers are forecast in far northern New England. The rest of the Northeast will remain dry.(NWS, Media Sources)

Red River Flood Preparations

Current Weather
The approaching strong storm system is moving west to east and producing heavy rain and thunderstorms. Widespread rain totals of 1 to 2 inches are likely, with additional precipitation today through Wednesday. This precipitation will quickly run off frozen ground; ice clogged ditches and culverts. Rapid snowmelt along with rapid river rises will create the possibility of significant overland flooding. Additional heavy rain will move into the southern Valley and eastern North Dakota this evening and will continue east of the Red River through Tuesday evening. The precipitation will likely turn to snow Tuesday night. (NOAA)

Federal Response:
FEMA NRCC is at Watch/Steady State (24/7). The NRCC continues to monitor activation readiness and any anticipated actions by Regions V and VIII through teleconferences. National IMAT-West is deploying to ND EOC in Bismarck today.

Region V
RRCC is at Watch/Steady State - 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. CDT (12/7); FEMA LNO is deployed to the Minnesota EOC; Region V IMAT on stand-by. RRCC prepared to go 24/7 and increase to Level III; the RRCC operating hours will mirror MN's EOC.

Region continues to monitor the flooding and maintains communications with USACE and ESFs.
Flood Warnings are in effect for rivers in northwestern Minnesota through Wednesday night. Rain and thunderstorms have begun throughout western Minnesota and will continue until Monday night.
No limiting factors or unmet needs at this time.

Minnesota
EOC is partially activated from 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. CDT until further notice; the state anticipates full activation sometime this week.

The Governor of Minnesota declared a State of Emergency on March 20 for seven counties to include activation of the Minnesota National Guard (MN NG).

Minnesota NG has increased troop activation to 118 personnel; operations include security at sandbagging sites, conducting dike patrols, and manning traffic control points in Moorhead (Clay County) and Breckinridge (Wilkin County). Guard personnel expected to muster up to 200 personnel. Ten state aircraft available. Clay County and the City of Moorhead are operating 24/7; a permanent dike has been installed and local personnel are adding temporary dikes as well as sandbags.

Minnesota Dept. of Agriculture activated its internal incident command team. Minnesota Housing Flood Team on alert.

Region VIII:
RRCC is at Watch/Steady State - 6:30 a.m. to 6:30 p.m. MDT (M-F). Region VIII ERT-A is scheduled to arrive at the ND EOC today. On March 24, a five person MERS team will deploy to augment the Region VIII ERT-A team.

Flood Warnings have been issued for much of western and central North Dakota. Heavy runoff from snowmelt and ice jams causing widespread flooding.

There are no limiting factors or unmet needs at this time.

North Dakota
EOC remains at Level III (Normal Operations), 7:00 a.m. - 8:00 p.m. CDT. The North Dakota Air Operations Branch will become active this morning at the ND EOC.

On March 13, the ND Governor declared a statewide flood emergency; 16 cities and 13 counties have declared local States of Emergency. There are 26 counties supporting current flood fight operations.

There is a high priority in Wahpeton to increase the height of dikes. The NG began 24/7 patrolling of dikes on Sunday, March 22. Currently, 253 North Dakota National Guard personnel are assisting with the construction of temporary levees, sandbagging operations, and security patrols in Fargo, as well as dike patrol and the removal of ice jams in Richland County. If needed, six state aircraft are available. (NGB Sit Rep #5 Mar 21)

US Army Corps of Engineers
USACE St. Paul District EOC is fully activated conducting 24 hour operations to provide technical assistance and resources in the form of various flood measures and sandbagging operations to North Dakota and Minnesota, Statewide flooding preparations are on-schedule for North Dakota and Minnesota.

Primary activities include the emergency construction of levees and ring dikes, increasing the height of levees to protect communities and infrastructure. Construction is completed or ongoing in 12 communities in North Dakota and Minnesota. Fargo, Kindred, and Wahpeton, ND are key communities receiving an extensive series of levees. Federal flood control projects in Breckenridge and Wahpeton are near completion. Valley City, ND is receiving non-federal levees. All protection will be in-place prior to river's cresting. 1.7 million sandbags, 9 pumps, 310 rolls of poly have been issued through the Red River Basin. (FEMA TC March 22)

Mount Redoubt Volcano Eruption

An eruption of Mt. Redoubt, located at the Cook Inlet - South Central Alaska, began at approximately 2:38 a.m. EDT, March 23, 2009. Alaska Volcano Observatory has raised the aviation color code to "Red" and the alert level to "Warning."

Presently, the initial height of the eruption cloud is estimated at 50,000 feet above sea level. Mudflows are possible on Drift and Crescent Rivers. Ashfall advisory is in effect until 8:00 a.m. EDT for the Susitna Valley, including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell. Volcanic ash is falling and is expected to reach the surface across Susitna Valley. Preliminary indications are that the ashfall will be very light. Updated reports will be issued as more information becomes available

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Western Pacific:
Tropical cyclone (TC) 22s Ilsa, is located approximately 357 miles south of Cocos Island, and has tracked west-southwestward at 10 mph over the past six hours. Over the last 6 hours, TC 22s has weakened due to increased dry air entrainment in the circulation and lower sea surface temperatures. The tropical cyclone does not pose a threat to any United States Territories.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:26:44 EDT