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National Situation Update: Thursday, March 19, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Midwest
Showers will be ending in the lower Midwest early in the day from Kentucky to southern Missouri.  Some lake-effect snow showers are possible early in the day in for portions of northern Michigan.

Temperatures will fall across portions of the Ohio Valley to the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Highs will go from the upper 60s and low 70s in these areas to mostly 50s on Thursday.
Highs will range from the 60s in much of the Central Plains to the 30s and 40s from North Dakota to the Great Lakes.

West
Highs are expected to be as much as 10 to 20 degrees above average from Montana, southern Idaho, and southeastern Oregon to the desert southwest and the High Plains.
Temperatures in the 50s and 60s across the lower elevations in the northwest to the 80s and low 90s in portions of the desert southwest.

A weak cold front will bring rain and mountain snow to Washington, northwest Oregon and the Northern Rockies. Snow levels in the Washington Cascades will be around 4,000 feet which is much higher than the last several days.

A cold front will move in by Friday bringing the northwest more rain and mountain snow.  Over the weekend, a cold upper trough will begin to move into the west with rain and higher elevation snow spreading south into California and into Inter Mountain West.

Northeast
A cold front will bring rain along much of the I-95 corridor Thursday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light.   Parts of the interior from northern Pennsylvania and Upstate New York northward may end with a little bit of wet snow or a rain/snow mix.
Rain may linger in portions of Virginia and the southern Del-Mar-Va Peninsula through the evening.

 Temperatures will generally be in the 40s and 50s across the region.  A few 30s will be possible in western New York and far northern New England. The mildest spot will be the southern half of Virginia where 60s are expected.

South
A cold front will move southward bringing scattered showers from North Carolina to Oklahoma and extreme north Texas.

South Florida will see showers and thunderstorms due to the end of a front, easterly flow and an upper trough moving through the area.  Widespread drought relief is not expected, but some areas will pick up locally heavy amounts.

Temperatures will range around 10 degrees or more from Wednesday to Thursday from Tennessee to Oklahoma and northern Texas. This will include Nashville, Tenn., Little Rock, Ark., and Oklahoma City, Okla.

High temperatures are expected to remain above average from the Carolinas to the lower-Mississippi Valley westward to central and south Texas.
Temperatures will reach into the 70s across much of the Carolinas. Areas from Florida west along the Gulf Coast to South Texas will generally be in the 70s to low 80s.

The cooler 60s and upper 50s predicted from the Southern Appalachians west across Tennessee and northern Arkansas to Oklahoma. (NWS, Media Sources)

North Dakota Flood Preparations

Current Weather
Record-to-near-record-flooding is a possibility in Fargo, Grand Forks, Sabin, Hawley, Dilworth, Hendrum, Hallock and Mapleton.

A powerful storm system currently well off the west coast of the United States is forecast to move inland late this week. As the low pressure center moves through, significant precipitation amounts in the form of rain or rain mixed with snow may occur.   If this storm develops as currently forecast, it could have a significant impact on area flooding.
As the low pressure center moves through, significant precipitation amounts in the form of rain or rain mixed with snow may occur.  (Region VIII DSAR, NOAA)

North Dakota: 
Monitoring Red River Flooding preparations.

Governor declared statewide flood emergency in anticipation of potential flooding.

State has requested US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) assistance with river flooding preparations.

The ND Governor has activated the National Guard.

National Park Services (NPS)
1 Short Team (person management team) identified.

2 Boat Teams (22 person & 10 boats each) identified.

U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE):
Working with local & state EMA for flood preparations.

1 million sandbags available across the region.

Flooding engineers surveying basin for threatened communities.

Provided tech assistance to raise levees in Oslo, MN by 3ft.

Pre-positioned pump in Pembina, ND.

Reducing reservoir levels
Lake Traverse, Wheaton, MN; from 977.3ft to 974.5ft
Orwell Reservoir, Fergus Falls, MN; from 1064ft to 1050ft

Fargo, ND
Requested construction of temporary Levees to protect city.

Nelson County (Devil's/Stump Lake)
Projects 3-4ft rise during spring; may flood historic sites
Requested construction of temporary Levees

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.(FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
No current tropical cyclone warnings.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Eastern Pacific:
There are no current tropical cyclone warnings.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment No. 2 to FEMA-1824-DR-OR (Severe Winter Storm and Flooding) adds one (1) county (Tillamook County) for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:26:48 EDT