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National Situation Update: Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Midwest
Most of the Midwest will be dry today except for a few showers near the Canadian border. On Wednesday, shower activity will increase from the lower Great Lakes to the mid-Mississippi Valley. A few thunderstorms are possible, but few, if any, will be severe. Temperatures will be warner with some cities up to 25 degrees above average, then will cool down again on Wednesday. 

West
More mountain snow and lower elevation rain showers today with rain mixed with snow or small hail possible around Seattle. Parts of the Washington Cascades saw up to 4 feet of snow since this weekend with a few more inches of snow expected. Another weather system will move into the Pacific Northwest tonight into Wednesday targeting western Washington and northwest Oregon. This new system will bring more rain and mountain snow to the area through the end of the week.

Northeast
Most of the Northeast will be dry today although a few showers may linger along the mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. Temperatures will continue to increase, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s on Wednesday from Boston to Philadelphia and the 60s to 70s in Virginia and West Virginia. On Wednesday a front will bring rain to upstate New York, Pennsylvania and northern New England.

South
A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms in the Florida peninsula today, otherwise the South will be dry and suny with highs in the 80s across the southern plains. Dense fog may cause problems in parts of Alabama, eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia, and parts of the western Carolinas through this morning. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Midwest Flooding Update

Flood Warnings continue for portions of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, with flood levels ranging from minor to major. Most rivers have crested and will continue to recede.

Major flooding continues along the Illinois, Kankakee and Tippecanoe Rivers. No unmet needs have been identified, and no State or Federal assistance has been requested.  (Region V, NWS, media sources)

North Dakota Flood Preparations

The Governor of North Dakota declared a State of Emergency for the threat of flooding and has activated the State Emergency Operations center. The Governor declaration authorizes State agencies to prepostion response assets and has also activated elements of the ND National Guard for response operations. Additionally, the State has requested assistance from the US Army Corps of Engineers for flood control efforts in the Red River of the North basins. Record-to-near-record-flooding is a possibility in Fargo, Grand Forks, Sabin, Hawley, Dilworth, Hendrum, Hallock and Mapleton.

Red River Basin Spring Flood Outlook

On Friday, March 13, 2009, the National Weather Service issued an updated 2009 Spring Flood Outlook for the Red River Valley and adjacent portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. This outlook, issued in addition to actual flood warnings and 7-day river forecasts that will be issued during the Spring snowmelt period, continues to indicate major or record flooding is possible at many locations on the Red River of the North and its tributaries

Locations having a 50% or greater chance of record flooding include: Oslo, High Landing, Valley City, Abercrombie, Lisbon, Kindred and Harwood. Locations having a near 100% chance of reaching Major Flood Stage are Fargo, Grand Forks, Oslo, Drayton, Pembina, Abercrombie and Harwood.

The extended weather outlook for the period of March 21st through March 27th calls for slightly above normal amounts of precipitation and near normal temperatures. The normal high temperatures range from the upper thirties to lower forties with normal lows ranging from the middle of the upper teens.

The Governor of North Dakota issued a statewide declaration on March 13 to activate state resources, and has asked for help from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.(NWS, Region VIII, AP)

Red River History and Geology

The Red River is formed by the confluence of the Bois de Sioux and Otter Trail Rivers in Minnesota and flows north through several major urban areas including Fargo, Moorhead, and Grand Forks. 395 miles of its 550 mile length flows through the U.S. 
Several factors cause the potential for flooding. During the spring thaw runoff from the southern part of the Valley joins with fresh melt off waters from the northern portion. Ice from the southern Valley meets with freshly-broken ice in the central and northern Valley. This ice concentration causes retarding or damming of water flow.
Add to this the fact that the Red River flows across one of the flattest expanses in the world (the floor of Glacial Lake Agassiz). The Red River is too young in geological terms to have carved a significant valley-floodplain system so the lake plain becomes the "floodplain" to the river.
Finally, the gradient or slope of the river drops to 1.5 inches per mile in the Drayton-Pembina region so during floods, the Red River at Drayton tends to pool due to the lack of slope and the region becomes essentially a massive, shallow lake.

Volcano Activity

Redoubt Volcano, Alaska
Elevated levels of seismic activity continue. This activity is principally small discrete earthquakes. Redoubt has not erupted, but has returned to the level of unrest observed during parts of late January and February. The AVO operations center has resumed 24/7 monitoring of the volcano.The Aviation Color Code has returned to ORANGE and the Volcano Alert Level has returned to WATCH.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern Pacific:
There are no current tropical cyclone warnings.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At 9:13 p.m. EDT, March 16, 2009, a magnitude 4.0 earthquake occurred approximately 25 miles northwest of Happy Valley, Alaska and 104 miles southwest of Anchorage, Alaska, at a depth of 53 miles.  There were no reports of tsunami, damage or injuries (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-1824-DR-OR (Severe Winter Storm, Record or Near Record Snow, Landslides and Mudslides) adds Washington County for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:26:50 EDT