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National Situation Update: Monday, March 16, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
Rain expected today from southeast Louisiana to the Carolinas. High pressure moving in on Tuesday will bring an end to the rain except in Florida where a few showers may linger.

West
Rain will continue from northern California to Washington with the heaviest rain in California's northern coastal range. Snow levels will remain low -- as low as 1000 feet in portions of the Washington Cascades.  Snow in the northern Rockies may be heavy at times. The Tetons, Yellowstone National Park and the Absaroka Mountaines may see 1-2 feet of snow. Strong, gusty winds will add to the blowing and driting snow with wind gusts between 50-60 mph  possible from the northern Sierra into western Nevada.

Northeast
Mainly light rain is expected in the region today. Southern New York to the Virginias should see clouds and showers throughout the day. New England and northern upstate New York should remain dry until another front enters the interior northeast by Wednesday.

Midwest
The Midwest will remain dry today except for some showers in North Dakota. Tuesday will see only minor amounts of rain near the Canadian border.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Midwest Flooding Update

FEMA Region V
Indiana
The State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is not activated. There are no fatalities and two injuries were reported. Fulton, Marshall and Pulaski Counties have issued local Emergency Declarations.
Five shelters remained open overnight Saturday with a population of nine. Flood Warnings continue for portions of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin with flood levels ranging from minor to major; however, most rivers have crested and will continue to recede through Monday. Major flooding continues along the Illinois, Kankakee and Tippecanoe Rivers.  A 40 ft private agricultural levee broke along the Kankakee River in Kouts, Indiana, affecting 1 home; owners have been contacted by the Porter County officials.  No unmet needs have been identified, and no State or Federal assistance has been requested.  (Region V, NWS, media sources)

Flood Safety Awareness Week

Floodwaters can be swift, powerful and, at times, deadly. However, advanced planning can help protect lives and minimize property losses due to flooding. With the spring thaw approaching, NOAA's National Weather Service and FEMA are partnering to observe the fifth annual Flood Safety Awareness Week, March 16-20, 2009.  The National Weather Service, along with FEMA's FloodSmart program, has launched a new Web page (www.floodsmart.gov/floodsmart/pages/landing_pages/landing_noaa.jsp?WT.mc_id=FEMA_NOAA) that shows the effects and cost of flooding to millions of people in the United States. The site also provides essential information on what to know and do before, during and after a flood, and a variety of safety tips and online tools, including one that lets them see whether their homes and businesses are threatened at various flood stages.
 "Floods claim nearly 100 lives and cost billions in property damage in the United States annually," said Jack Hayes, director of NOAA's National Weather Service. "Spring is peak flood season in many parts of the country, but floods can happen anywhere, at any time of the year. Many lives could be saved by following some simple and essential flood safety tips."
"Knowing what you can do to protect against the impact of flooding is critical in keeping your family, home and financial well-being secure," said Ed Connor, acting federal insurance administrator for FEMA's Mitigation Directorate. "Purchasing flood insurance is one important step you can take now. Many residents incorrectly believe that homeowners insurance covers the costs of flooding, but in fact, only a flood policy can."  (Excerpt from www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090313_floodsafety.html)

Red River Basin Spring Flood Outlook

On Friday, March 13, 2009, the National Weather Service issued an updated 2009 Spring Flood Outlook for the Red River Valley and adjacent portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. This outlook, issued in addition to actual flood warnings and 7-day river forecasts that will be issued during the Spring snowmelt period, continues to indicate record flooding is possible at many locations on the Red River of the North and its tributaries, with major spring flooding expected for most of the Red River Basin.

Locations having a 50% or greater chance of record flooding include: Oslo, High Landing, Valley City, Abercrombie, Lisbon, Kindred and Harwood. Locations having a near 100% chance of reaching Major Flood Stage are Fargo, Grand Forks, Oslo, Drayton, Pembina, Abercrombie and Harwood.

Hydrologic data for the Red River of the North Basin indicates precipitation for the months of October through January was much higher than normal. USGS monthly-average streamflows also were much higher than normal for the same period. New snowfall that occurred during the last week in February and into the beginning of March added another one half to one inch of water equivalent bringing snow depth reports to around one to two feet in the southern Valley and around a foot in the northern Valley. 

During March and April, we can expect weather patterns to tend toward below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.  These tendencies would increase the possibility of a later than normal start of the Spring thaw with an increased threat of heavy rainfall during the melt and spring river rises.

The extended weather outlook for the period of March 21st through March 27th calls for slightly above normal amounts of precipitation and near normal temperatures. The normal high temperatures range from the upper thirties to lower forties with normal lows ranging from the middle of the upper teens.

The City of Grand Forks issued a Declaration of Emergency and Natural Disaster on March 11 authorizing the use of resources as necessary to prepare for and respond to flood conditions.

The Governor of North Dakota issued a statewide declaration on March 13 to activate state resources, and has asked for help from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.(NWS, Region VIII, AP)

Volcano Activity

Redoubt Volcano, Alaska
Low level volcanic tremors are continuing and a steam plume is visible from the Kenai Peninsula and in web camera views of the volcano. Redoubt has not erupted, but has returned to the level of unrest observed during parts of late January and February. The AVO operations center has resumed 24/7 monitoring of the volcano.The Aviation Color Code has returned to ORANGE and the Volcano Alert Level has returned to WATCH.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern Pacific:
There are no current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:26:51 EDT