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National Situation Update: Sunday, March 15, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
One half to one and a half inches of rain is expected across northern sections of Alabama and Georgia and continuing into upstate South Carolina and North Carolina. A few thunderstorms are possible along the northeastern Gulf coast and into southern Alabama and Georgia; however, the storms are not expected to be severe.

West
Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over western Oregon and into extreme northern California. Two to four inches of rain are expected, with some local areas receiving over six inches by Monday evening. Lighter rain is forecast over western Washington, where an inch or two is possible. Some showers may extend as far south as San Francisco and Sacramento. Heavy snow is expected in the mountains, with over a foot likely in Washington, Oregon, northern California, Idaho and Montana.

Northeast
Light rain, less than one half inch, is expected over Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and northern Virginia. Heavier rain is forecast across central and southern Virginia, where up to one and a half inches are possible. Southern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware may experience a few sprinkles.

Midwest
Skies should be sunny to partly cloudy with warming temperatures across the Midwest Sunday and Monday.(NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Midwest Flooding Update

FEMA Region V
Indiana
The State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) deactivated from Level 3 (Partial Activation) on March 14. No fatalities or injuries have been reported. Three shelters remained open overnight Saturday with a population of ten. Two locations on the Tippecanoe River and three locations on the Kankakee River are at Major Flood Stage. The National Weather Service (NWS) does not anticipate the surge of flood water from the Tippecanoe River to cause significant flooding on Lake Shafer or in areas below the Oakdale and Norway Dams. The Norway and Oakdale Dams (White and Carroll counties respectively) water discharge levels have fallen to Flood Warning level, and discharge rates continue to fall. No unmet needs have been identified, and no State or Federal assistance has been requested.
Ohio
The State EOC is not activated. One unconfirmed fatality; no injuries have been reported. No shelters were open Saturday night. Putman and Defiance County declared a local emergency. All Ohio river locations are below Moderate Flood Stage and are continuing to recede. No unmet needs have been identified, and no State or Federal assistance has been requested.
Michigan
The State EOC is not activated. No fatalities or injuries have been reported, and no shelters were open Friday night. All rivers are below Major Flood Stage. No Federal assistance has been requested.
Illinois
The State EOC is not activated. No fatalities or injuries have been reported, and no shelters were open Friday night. Four locations on the Illinois River are at Major Flood Stage. No unmet needs have been identified, and no State or Federal assistance has been requested. (Region V, NWS, media sources)

Red River Basin Spring Flood Outlook

On Friday, March 13, 2009, the National Weather Service issued an updated 2009 Spring Flood Outlook for the Red River Valley and adjacent portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. This outlook, issued in addition to actual flood warnings and 7-day river forecasts that will be issued during the Spring snowmelt period, continues to indicate that record flooding is possible at many locations on the Red River of the North and its tributaries, with major spring flooding expected for most of the Red River Basin.

Locations that have a 50% or greater chance of record flooding include: Oslo; High Landing; Valley City; Abercrombie; Lisbon; Kindred and Harwood. Locations that have a near 100% chance of reaching Major Flood Stage are Fargo; Grand Forks; Oslo; Drayton; Pembina; Abercrombie and Harwood.

Hydrologic data for the Red River of the North Basin indicates that precipitation for the months of October through January was much higher than normal. USGS monthly-average streamflows also were much higher than normal for the same period. New snowfall that occurred during the last week in February and into the beginning of March added another one half to one inch of water equivalent bringing snow depth reports to around one to two feet in the southern Valley and around a foot in the northern Valley. 

During March and April, we can expect weather patterns to tend toward below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.  These tendencies would increase the possibility of a later than normal start of the Spring thaw with an increased threat of heavy rainfall during the melt and spring river rises.

The extended weather outlook for the period of March 21st through March 27th calls for slightly above normal amounts of precipitation and near normal temperatures. The normal high temperatures range from the upper thirties to lower forties with normal lows ranging from the middle of the upper teens.

The City of Grand Forks issued a Declaration of Emergency and Natural Disaster on March 11 authorizing the use of resources as necessary to prepare for and respond the the flood conditions.

The Governor of North Dakota issued a statewide declaration on March 13 to activate state resources, and has asked for help from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.(NWS, Region VIII, AP)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern Pacific:
There are no current tropical cyclone warnings.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:26:53 EDT