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National Situation Update: Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:  Rain and mountain snow will blanket most of California again today, but the amounts of rain and coverage will lessen as the storm weakens and moves into the Interior West.  Heavy snow is expected to coat the Tetons, Wasatch, Uintas and western Colorado Rockies, as well as the Sierras.

Midwest:  Arctic air sliding southward into the northern Plains and northern Upper Midwest will trigger snow showers and flurries.

The colder air will be setting the stage for winter storm conditions over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes tonight as the Plains' storms moves northeastward and grows stronger.

South:
Light showers or an isolated thunderstorm today in southern and eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, far western Tennessee, Mississippi and northern Louisiana will be the first warning shots from a storm developing over the southern Plains.

Southerly winds will impact much of the region as the day goes on and the storm gathers strength.   (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Storm Dumps Rain, Snow on California, Closing I-5

A winter storm blanketed California with heavy rain and snow on Monday, forcing the closure of a major highway.  The storm stretched from the Mexican border up to Oregon and Washington and was expected to last through Tuesday afternoon, said a forecaster for the National Weather Service in San Diego. He said rain clouds extended several hundred miles off the Pacific coast.
"This one here is hitting the entire state," the forecaster said.

Heavy snow forced the closure of a 50-mile stretch of Interstate 5 in both directions in the mountains north of Los Angeles. The roadway is the region's main north-south artery.  In Northern California, a flood advisory was issued for the San Francisco Bay area and a flash flood watch was in effect for much of California's central coast.

In the San Diego area, firefighters made rescues after flood waters overtook two vehicles just before noon. No injuries were reported in either incident.  Rain brought renewed fears of mudslides in areas ravaged by wildfires last year. The eastern Los Angeles County city of Sierra Madre has warned residents they may need to leave their homes, and a voluntary evacuation order was in effect early Monday.

Up to 7 feet of snow had fallen in the Sierra Nevada over the past week, and more was expected by early Tuesday.   (Media Sources)

Extremely Critical Fire Weather

The National Weather Service has issued the following fire weather warnings:

Extremely Critical Fire weather area for far Eastern New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma Panhandles and extreme Southern Colorado and Southwest Kansas

Critical fire weather area for Eastern New Mexico significant portions West Texas, Western Oklahoma, Southeastern Colorado Southwestern Kansas

A surface low will rapidly deepen over central Kansas by late Tuesday as an upper trough and strong jet moves over the central and southern plains. Dangerous fire weather conditions will be likely across a widespread area that has been under drought. Despite some recent rainfall mainly dry fuels exist at this point. Winds near 35 to 45 mph will affect areas near and behind the dry line. Deep mixing will allow stronger gusts near 50 to 60 mph to reach the surface. Farther west near the eastern slopes in New Mexico and Colorado sustained winds near 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph will be likely.  (NOAA/NWS)

Winter Ice Storms - Update

Recovery efforts continue for impacted areas.  Federal, State and Local governments are coordinating response and recovery operations.

Region VI

Region VIII will assume operational control for OK response. (FEMA Region VI)
Region VI is assisting Region VIII with setting up the JFO in OK.
Denton MERS has deployed personnel and equipment to assist Region VIII in setting up the JFO in Oklahoma City, OK. (Denton MERS, Feb 16)Arkansas   
Power Outages: 13,494 customers from a peak outage of 315,324 (corrected number). (AR JFO Feb 14)
Shelters: 4 / Occupants: 28; All ARC shelters closed.(AR JFO Feb 14)
No unmet needs or limiting factors.

Region VII

Missouri
The MO EOC is activated at Level II, 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. CST.
Fatalities: 8.
Power Outages: 6,800 customers; the majority of power outages remain isolated to the extreme southwest portion of the state. (Region VII DSAR Feb 13)
Shelters: 2 / Occupants: 21.(Region VII DSAR Feb 13)

La Niña Likely to Continue into Spring

On February 5, 2009 NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued the first La Niña advisory under its new El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System. Forecasters expect La Niña to influence weather patterns across the United States during the remainder of the winter and into the early spring.

Defined as cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Niña impacts the weather globally. La Niña's opposite is El Niño, or warmer than normal ocean temperatures. These changes in ocean temperatures alter the tropical wind and rainfall patterns with far reaching implications.

"The typical weather patterns associated with La Niña and El Niño affect many industries including agriculture, transportation, energy, shipping and construction," said the deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. "The ENSO Alert System will succinctly inform industry, government agencies, academia and the public about the onset and status of La Niña and El Niño. This system will also help decision makers plan for the potential effects presented by these conditions."

La Niña conditions have been present since late December, but it is too early to say exactly how strong the event will be and precisely how long it will last. However, for the next few months La Niña is expected to bring milder and drier than average conditions to the southeastern and southwestern states. It is also expected to bring wetter-than-average conditions to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and cooler than average temperatures to the Pacific Northwest.

The new ENSO alert system includes La Niña and El Niño watches and advisories which the Climate Prediction Center will issue when specific conditions exist.

  • La Niña or El Niño Watch: conditions in the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the development of La Niña or El Niño conditions in the next three months.
  • La Niña or El Niño Advisory:  La Niña or El Niño conditions have developed and are expected to continue.

These watches and advisories are now part of the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, which is issued by the Climate Prediction Center on the Thursday falling between the 5th and 11th of every month.(Excerpt from www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090205_enso.html)

Volcanic Activity – Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

As of 16 February, unrest at Mount Redoubt continues.

Elevated seismicity is continuing, dominated by ongoing volcanic tremor and occasional small earthquakes.

FAA continues to restrict air travel in a 10 mile radius around Redoubt to 60,000 MSL
The Aviation Color Code remains at ORANGE and the Volcano Alert Level remains at WATCH(Region X, AVO, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Fire Management Assistance Grant

No activity  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Western Pacific:
There are no current tropical cyclone warnings.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:27:25 EDT