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National Situation Update: Monday, December 1, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West:
The region will be dry, except for rain moving into the Pacific Northwest from an approaching low pressure system and a few snow showers in the Rockies.  High wind warnings and watches are posted for the eastern slopes of the Montana Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Wind gusts in some passes and valleys could reach 60 mph. The strong down slope winds, off the mountains, could bring record or near-record high temperatures to some locations in Montana.
Midwest:
Winds on the backside of the low over the Great Lakes will produce snow and snow showers in the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys with additional accumulations of one half to one inch.
South:
Northerly winds on the backside of the low will produce unseasonably cold temperatures for much of the region, especially the southern Mississippi River Valley.  A trough of low pressure extending southwest from the low will produce a mix of rain and snow showers as far south as the Tennessee Valley. Accumulations of snow are only expected in the higher elevations of the Appalachians.  Tonight, a few rain showers may appear along the eastern Gulf Coast as a weak low pressure system develops over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Most of the region will have gusty winds throughout the day.
Northeast:
The low over the Great Lakes will produce a mix of rain, snow and sleet from West Virginia to Maine. Northern New York State and New England will begin the day with rain but, as the low moves eastward, temperatures will drop and precipitation will become frozen. Forecast accumulations are less than an inch. (NOAA, National Weather Service and Various Media Sources)

Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Records

The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially came to a close on Sunday, Nov 30, marking the end of a season that produced a record number of consecutive storms to strike the United States and ranks as one of the more active seasons in the 64 years since comprehensive records began.

A total of 16 named storms formed this season, based on an operational estimate by NOAA's National Hurricane Center. The storms included eight hurricanes, five of which were major hurricanes at Category 3 strength or higher. These numbers fall within the ranges predicted in NOAA's pre- and mid-season outlooks issued in May and August.  "This year's hurricane season continues the current active hurricane era and is the tenth season to produce above-normal activity in the past 14 years," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Overall, the season is tied as the fourth most active in terms of named storms (16) and major hurricanes (5), and is tied as the fifth most active in terms of hurricanes (8) since 1944, which was the first year aircraft missions flew into tropical storms and hurricanes.

For the first time on record, six consecutive tropical cyclones (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) made landfall on the U.S. mainland and a record three major hurricanes (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) struck Cuba. This is also the first Atlantic season to have a major hurricane (Category 3) form in five consecutive months (July: Bertha, August: Gustav, September: Ike, October: Omar, November: Paloma).


Bell attributes this year's above-normal season to conditions that include:

  • An ongoing multi-decadal signal. This combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions has spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995.
  • Lingering La Niña effects. Although the La Niña that began in the fall of 2007 ended in June, its influence of light wind shear lingered.
  • Warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures. On average, the tropical Atlantic was about 1.0 degree Fahrenheit above normal during the peak of the season.

NOAA's National Hurricane Center is conducting comprehensive post-event assessments of each named storm of the season. Some of the early noteworthy findings include:

  • Bertha was a tropical cyclone for 17 days (July 3-20), making it the longest-lived July storm on record in the Atlantic Basin.
  • Fay is the only storm on record to make landfall four times in the state of Florida, and to prompt tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for the state's entire coastline (at various times during its August lifespan).
  • Paloma, reaching Category 4 status with top winds of 145 mph, is the second strongest November hurricane on record behind Lenny in 1999 with top winds of 155 mph).

"The information we'll gain by assessing the events from the 2008 hurricane season will help us do an even better job in the future," said Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center. "With this season behind us, it's time to prepare for the one that lies ahead."

NOAA will issue its initial 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook in May, prior to the official start of the season on June 1. (Excerpt from NOAA News www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20081126_hurricaneseason.html)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
The 2008 hurricane season has concluded.  The Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2009.  Should any disturbances develop during the off-season, special tropical disturbance statements will be issued as needed.

Eastern Pacific:
The 2008 hurricane season has concluded.  The Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2009.  Should any disturbances develop during the off-season, special tropical disturbance statements will be issued as needed.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:31:11 EDT