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National Situation Update: Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast
A rapidly deepening area of low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast will track northward today through western New England.

A winter storm warning is in effect until Wednesday morning for the western and southern Adirondacks, the Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys and the eastern Catskills. Precipitation will gradually transition to all snow with snow continuing for the rest of the afternoon and tonight. The snow will be heavy at times with snowfall rates up to an inch per hour across the higher elevations of the Catskills and Adirondacks. Total accumulations by Wednesday morning will range between 8 and 16 inches.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for the Saint Lawrence Valley and for north central Vermont including the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

Winds associated with this storm will increase today with speeds of 20 to 30 mph and occassional gusts to between 45 and 55 mph by this afternoon. The combination of heavy snow and strong winds may result in downed trees and power lines.

A flood watch remain in effect for  portions of northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, east central New York and southern Vermont. Several rivers will experience water rises to near bankfull.

South
Sub-freezing temperatures and strong gusty winds are expected Tuesday morning across much of the South. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible by late Tuesday morning across the higher terrains of southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee mountains and the Smoky mountains.

Temperatures are expected to fall rapidly on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning across much of the Southeast.  Below freezing temperatures are expected Tuesday night from the Florida Panhandle north to Tennessee, and interior portions of North and South Carolina and west to the Mississippi River.

Midwest
The first significant lake-effect snow is developing across the Great Lakes.  A mixture of rain and snow is possible over portions of Michigan and northern Ohio early Tuesday with some accumulation in northeastern Ohio and over parts of Lower Michigan. On the west side of the Great Lakes, freezing temperatures are possible.

During the day Tuesday, highs will range from the 30s and 40s around the Great Lakes, to the 40s to lower 50s in the Ohio Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, to the 60s to near 70 over the Plains.

West
Much of the west will remain very warm and dry for the next couple of days with clouds on the increase across western Washington by Wednesday.

The warm air and low humidity will keep the fire danger at a high level through Tuesday before a developing onshore flow reduces the threat.

A chance of showers will increase Thursday into Friday along the West Coast down to the San Francisco bay area.(NOAA; National Weather Service; Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Area 1 (92L):  A large area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure is located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.  Development, if any, should be slow to occur as the system drifts west-northwestward, until upper-level winds become less conducive in a couple of days.

Eastern Pacific:
Area 1: Shower activity in association with a weak area of low pressure located about 575 miles southwest of Acapulco Mexico has remained disorganized this evening.  Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur as it moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph during the next two days.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Monday, October 27, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 1
Initial attack activity: Light (34 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Uncontained large fires: 1
Large fires contained: 0

A critical fire weather area will be in effect for much of the Florida peninsula on Tuesday. Long duration low relative humidity and sustained surface winds will produce an unseasonably cool dry area mass across much of Florida.

Red Flag Warning will be in effect for much of Tuesday for parts of north and central Georgia, including the Chattahoochee and Oconee National Forests, southwest and south central Georgia, the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle and much of the Florida Peninsula due to low humidity and gusty winds.

Red Flag warning will be in effect for portions of southern California through Tuesday night due to an extended period of low humidity. A very warm and dry air mass will continue through at least Tuesday across the mountains.  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President signed a major disaster declaration on October 27, 2008, for the state of Florida (FEMA-1806-DR) as a result of Hurricane Gustav.  The declaration is for 6 counties for Public Assistance and Hazard Mitigation statewide. (FEMA HQ)  

FEMA-1802-DR-Kentucky, Amendment #2.  Effective October 27, 2008 the major declaration is amended to include Washington County for Public Assistance.  (FEMA HQ)