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National Situation Update: Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Most of the West will be sunny and dry; isolated storms are possible from Montana southward into New Mexico and southern Arizona.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 5:00 p.m. PDT for the mountains of Los Angeles County and the Antelope Valley due to an extended period of low relative humidity.  High temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s along the Pacific Coast to over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.
Midwest:
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the Midwest and Plains.  Flood Warnings continue for the Buffalo River at Sabin and near Dilworth in Minnesota.  Recent rainfall has caused enough runoff to bring the Buffalo River level to above flood stage.  High temperatures are forecast to range from the 70s in northeast Minnesota to the 90s in southwest Kansas.
South:
Heavy rain is forecast for the Southeast today.  Severe thunderstorms, along with some isolated tornadoes, are expected from Louisiana through southern Georgia, eastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect today for all of southeast Alabama, southwest and south central Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and the western big bend.  High temperatures are forecast to range from the 70s in the Carolinas to the upper 90s in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area.
Northeast:
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the region today.  Scattered thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail for portions of Maine and New Hampshire.  High temperatures are expected in the 70s and 80s.  (National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:

A Tropical Wave (1) located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Conditions appear somewhat conducive for development and a Tropical Depression may form during the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

A disorganized low pressure area (2) associated with a Tropical Wave is located over the eastern tropical Atlantic about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  Any development of this system is expected to be slow and to occur during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Hernan
At 11:00 pm EDT the center of Tropical Depression Hernan was located about 1,640 miles west of the southern tip of Baja, California and about 1,330 miles east of Hawaii.  TD Hernan is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph with higher gusts.  TD Hernan should continue to slowly weaken during the next couple of days.  The National Hurricane Center has issued the last public Advisory on TD Hernan.

An area of low pressure (1) centered about 250 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to show signs of organization.  Conditions appear to be favorable for further development and this system has the potential to become a Tropical Depression over the next day or two.  Heavy rain could occur along portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Thunderstorm activity (2) associated with an area of low pressure located about 750 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California remains disorganized.  Upper-level winds are currently not favorable for development but could become more conducive for Tropical Cyclone formation over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly westward. 

Central Pacific:
The remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Kika are located 1,300 miles southwest of Honolulu, and are moving to the west at 15 mph.  Redevelopment is not expected before it crosses the dateline into the northwest Pacific.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, August 12, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 4
Initial attack activity: Light (187 new fires)
New large fires: 6
Uncontained large fires: 34
Large fires contained: 7
States with Large fires: AZ, CA, ID, MT, NC, OR, TX, UT, WA and WY
The Craig Fire in northern California was contained at 2,001 acres.  Thirteen large fires continue to burn 441,133 acres throughout the northern part of California.
The West Coast will continue to have warm and dry weather conditions.  Showers and thunderstorms are predicted across the Gulf Coast states today. (NIFC, CAL Fire)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Iowa: Amendment #16 to FEMA-1763-DR for the state of Iowa was approved.  Seven counties designated for Individual Assistance.  One county designated for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)