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National Situation Update: Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
A few showers and thunderstorms, some severe, impacted the northern and central Plains overnight.  Showers are forecast for the Lower Ohio Valley, but will move out in the early morning.  High temperatures will range from the upper 70s across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and parts of Illinois to the 100s in parts of Kansas.
Northeast
A cold front moving across the region may produce showers and thunderstorms across the Northeast  with heavy rainfall in portions of New York and New England and some severe storms in the Mid-Atlantic.  The slow moving front may also result in flash flooding for some areas.  High temperatures will range from the low 70s in Maine through the central Appalachians to the mid and upper 80s in extreme southern New England and Virginia.
South
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the coast of Texas from Brownsville to Corpus Christi and for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the border between Mexico and the United States.  Dolly should make landfall on the western Gulf of Mexico coast sometime today. The landfall location appears to be either southern Texas or extreme northern Mexico.  A cold front approaching the region will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Carolinas westward to Arkansas.  Highs for the region will be in the mid-90s across the Deep South and Lower Mississippi Valley to 100s in parts of Texas.
West
Much of the western U.S. will see mainly sunny skies with a few showers and storms along the high terrain of Idaho and Montana.  High temperatures will be near seasonal averages with widespread 80s and 90s and some 100s across the southwestern desert regions.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Hurricane Dolly Preparations

FEMA  Region VI Actions

• FEMA Region VI is activated Level II, 24 hour operations
• Two FEMA Liaisons and a DCE Representative are at the Texas SOC.
• Five MDRCs have been deployed.
• Three PA PDA teams and six IA PDA teams will deploy to Austin today. 

State Actions - Texas

• TX State EOC fully staffed (Level I)
• Governor of TX issued State Disaster Declaration for 14 counties in response to imminent threat posed by Hurricane Dolly.
• TX Military Forces (TMF) activated 1,200 members, an IMT and 6 UH-60s
• TX evacuations not anticipated, but preparations continue
• Texas reports no unmet needs

Rio Grande Levees, Texas

The United States Section of the International Boundary and Water Commission (USIBWC) is a government-sponsored commission that oversees boundary, water and environmental issues between the United States and Mexico.  The IBWC operates the Lower Rio Grande Flood Control Project, which consists of a series of flood control levees, dams, and floodways.

The IBWC is closely monitoring National Weather Service (NWS) warnings and forecasts for Hurricane Dolly.  In accordance with IBWC operating guidelines, staff go on "stand-by-alert" whenever a tropical depression, storm, or hurricane is within 100 miles of the Rio Grande watershed.  In this status, they would initiate testing of emergency equipment, check availability of additional flood supplies, and, as warranted, begin coordination with local, state, and Federal agencies. 

Should the Rio Grande experience flood conditions, IBWC staff will move into Flood Fight Operations.  In this phase, crews work 24 hrs a day to patrol flood control levees and identify and respond to any problems that may arise, including levee erosion and seepage.

The USIBWC also exchanges information with the Mexico section of the Commission regarding flood conditions along the Rio Grande in both countries.  In May, the U.S. and Mexican sections of the Commission conducted their annual flood workshop in preparation for the hurricane season. (USIBWC Press Release, July 22, 2008)

California Wildfires

Statewide Statistical Summary:

• Currently, there are 2,063 contained fires.  Total fires are 2,096.  98% of the fires in California are contained.  There are 33 active fires.  A total of 978,180 acres have been burned and 15,131 personnel have been assigned.  (CAL Fire 9:00 p.m. PDT, July 21 report)
•  Fatalities - 3
• Injuries - 334
• Structures destroyed: 122 residences; 1 commercial; 138 outbuildings
• Structures threatened: 4,926 residences; 136 commercial; 2,183 outbuildings
• State EOC is activated
• FEMA Region IX activated at Level III

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Cristobal
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located about 380 miles east of Halifax, Nova Scotia.  Cristobal is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph.  A turn toward the east is expected during the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph, with higher gusts.  No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Dolly
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located about 65 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  Dolly is moving toward the west near 8 mph and northwestward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed expected today.  On this track, the center of Dolly will be along the coast near the Texas/Mexico border around midday today.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph, with higher gusts.  Some additional increase in strength is expected, and Dolly could approach Category Two intensity when it reaches the coastline later today. (NWS, National Hurricane Center)

"Area 1" (Low potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
A large and well-defined tropical wave is located over the far eastern Atlantic just west of the Cape Verde Islands.  Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Fausto
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Fausto, located about 750 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Genevieve
At 5:00 a.m. PDT, the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was located about 415 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Genevieve is moving toward the west near 9 mph, and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Genevieve could be at or near hurricane strength later today.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, July 22, 2008:

• National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
• Initial attack activity: Light (194 new fires)
• New large fires: 5
• Uncontained large fires: 41
• Large fires contained: 4
• States with Large fires - CA, CO, MT, NV, NC, TX, UT, VA and WA
• Scattered wet thunderstorms are expected today over portions of northern California, eastern areas of Oregon and Washington, Eastern Great Basin and the Rockies. Drier air will begin pushing into the rest of California and Nevada. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)