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National Situation Update: Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
Scattered showers and thunderstorms forecasted for most of the Midwest with most of the activity centered around the Ohio Valley and Missouri. Some storms could be severe, producing strong winds, heavy rain and large hail.  High temperatures will range from the low 70s on Michigan's Upper Peninsula to the upper 90s in western Kansas.
Northeast
A cold front moving across the region may produce storms in western New York and Pennsylvania into New England.  Some areas will see brief, heavy downpours.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will be far enough into the Atlantic to have little impact on the East Coast.  High temperatures will range from the low 70s in northern Maine to over 100 in southeast and south-central Virginia.
South
A Hurricane Warning is in effect along the Texas coast in anticipation of Tropical Storm Dolly becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.  The first rainbands from Dolly could reach the Texas coast sometime today.  Tennessee could see some severe storms as a cold front passes over the state.
Highs for the region will generally be in the mid-90s to 100.
West
Much of the region will be dry today with some scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the Interior West.  Gusty northwest winds are forecast over Pacific beaches from northern California northward.  High temperatures will range broadly from the mid-50s along the northern California coast to over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.   (NWS, Media Sources)

California Wildfires

Statewide Statistical Summary:
Currently, there are 2,063 contained fires.  Total fires are 2,096.  98% of the fires in California are contained.  There are 33 active fires.  A total of 953,907 acres have been burned and 15,573 personnel have been assigned. (CAL Fire 9:00 p.m. PDT, July 21 report)
Fatalities - 3
Injuries - 324
Structures destroyed: 123 residences; 1 commercial; 138 outbuildings
Structures threatened: 4,958 residences; 139 commercial; 2,166 outbuildings
State EOC is activated
FEMA Region IX activated at Level III

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Cristobal
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located about 485 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Cristobal is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph, and a turn toward the east-northeast with a further increase in forward speed is expected during the next dy or two. 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph.  Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours as Cristobal loses tropical characteristics.

Tropical Storm Dolly
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located about 295 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  Dolly is moving toward the west near 15 mph.  A turn to the west-northwest is expected tomorrow with a decrease in forward speed followed by a turn to the northwest on Wednesday.  On this track, the center of Dolly should be very near the western coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Dolly is expected to become a hurricane prior to landfall.(NWS, National Hurricane Center)

"Area 1" (Medium potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
A large and well-defined tropical wave has emerged from western Africa and is located over the far eastern Atlantic a couple hundred miles east of the Cape Verde Islands.  Although this system will be traversing relatively cool waters, it still has some potential for tropical cyclone formation as it moves generally westward over the next couple of days.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Fausto
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located about 640 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Fausto is moving toward the west near 12 mph, and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Fausto could become a remnant low later today.

Tropical Storm Genevieve
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was located about 310 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Genevieve is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph, and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next day or so.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph, with higher gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Monday, July 21, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
Initial attack activity: Light (126 new fires)
New large fires: 5
Uncontained large fires: 36
Large fires contained: 3
States with Large fires - CA, CO, LA, MT, NV, NC, TX, UT, VA and WA
Thunderstorms, initially dry, are expected over portions of northern California, eastern Oregon and western Nevada today. Wet thunderstorms are also expected over portions of southern California and The Great Basin with drier storms over Idaho, western Montana and western Wyoming. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)