• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Monday, July 21, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms will center along and near a slow-moving front in the lower Midwest today, although a few showers and storms will also mark portions of the Upper Midwest.

Parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio will likely see some of the heaviest rainfall.  Those states, plus Iowa and northern Missouri, could see a few severe storms, too.

Northeast
A frontal boundary, scattered across the northeastern U.S., will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms, principally in New England.

One or two storms in New England, New York state and western Pennsylvania could turn severe.

Tropical Storm Cristobal is forecast to pass southeast of Cape Cod tonight, perhaps brushing the Cape, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard with gusty winds and showers.

West
Much of the western U.S. will be dry today, although the usual scattering of summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms will billow up over the Interior West except Montana.

Gusty afternoon winds will beat over many of the Pacific beaches.

High temperatures will range to over 100 in parts of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.  Readings well in the 90s will dry out central and eastern Montana.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Cristobal
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm (TS) Cristobal was located about 110 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

TS Cristobal is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed over the next couple of days.  On this track, TS Cristobal will be well offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Tropical Storm Dolly
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm (TS) Dolly was about 709 miles south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.

TS Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph, and a turn to the west-northwest is expected later today with a decrease in forward speed on July 22.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Strengthening is expected to begin when the center of the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico, and TS Dolly could become a Hurricane by July 22.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.  TS Dolly could produce winds near tropical storm force, especially in gusts, over the western tip of Cuba this morning.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1,008 mb (29.77 inches).

TS Dolly is expected to produce rainfall of four-to-six (4 - 6) inches across the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in western Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches.

Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress or TS Dolly.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Fausto
At 2:00 a.m. PDT, the center of Hurricane Fausto was located about 405 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Hurricane Fausto is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph, and a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph, with higher gusts.  Hurricane Fausto has probably reached its peak intensity and some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches).

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Sunday, July 20, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
Initial attack activity: Light (114 new fires)
New large fires: 3
Uncontained large fires: 37
Large fires contained: 0
States with Large fires - AK, CA, CO, LA, NC, TX, UT, VA, and WA
Hot and dry over much of the West.  Widely scattered mixed wet and dry thunderstorms are expected over portions of the Great Basin, Wyoming and Montana.  Wet thunderstorms are forecast for southern Sierra and the southern California mountains and deserts.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)