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National Situation Update: Sunday, July 20, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West
Scattered thunderstorms will shift westward from Colorado and New Mexico into Utah, Arizona, Nevada and southeast California today.  Southern Arizona could locally see two-inch rains in thunderstorms.  Flash flooding will again be a problem across the southwest.

The Northwest will be rain-free and high temperatures will be in the 90s from the eastern sections of Washington and Oregon to the high Plains of Montana, Wyoming and Colorado.  Eastern Colorado will locally top 100 degrees and the Snake River Valley, including Boise.

The increase in humidity, clouds and thunderstorms in the Desert Southwest will keep high temperatures down, ranging from the mid-90s in Phoenix to 112 in Death Valley.

Midwest
As a front lies west-to-east from South Dakota to Lower Michigan, a strong upper-level disturbance will track along the Canadian border from North Dakota toward the northern Great Lakes during the day.

A few thunderstorm complexes could again strike the region from South Dakota and Nebraska, through the northern Mississippi Valley, into the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley, producing damaging wind gusts and hail.

South
Much of the South will be rain free, but Tropical Storm Cristobal will move northeastward just offshore from the Outer Banks, producing several inches of rain from Cape Fear to Duck. Along with the rain, tropical storm strength winds are likely and the surf will be in the 6-to-10-foot.

Isolated thunderstorms will develop from Louisiana to southern Georgia and Florida and across parts of Tennessee. (NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Cristobal
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm (TS) Cristobal was located about 60 miles southwest of Cape Lookout, North Carolina and about 130 miles southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

TS Cristobal is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph.  A northeastward motion, with some increase in forward speed, is expected over the next couple of days.  On this track, the center of the tropical storm is expected to move parallel (and very close) to the coast of North Carolina today and begin to move away from the coast July 21.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

A USAF Hurricane Hunter plane reported a minimum central pressure of 1,006 mb (29.71 inches).

TS Cristobal is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of one-to-two (1 - 2) inches along the immediate North Carolina coast during the next day or so.  Isolated maximum storm total amounts of five (5) inches are possible.  Coastal storm surge flooding of two-to-three (2 - 3) feet above normal tide levels can be expected in areas of onshore winds.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Little River Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including Pamlico Sound.

Invest 94 (High potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
The strong tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea continues to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms with winds to gale force in squalls.

Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for development, and this system is likely to become a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm within the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

Locally heavy rains will affect Jamaica, portions of Cuba and the Cayman Islands today.

Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Fausto
At 2:00 a.m. PDT, the center of Hurricane Fausto was located about 515 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Fausto is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph.  A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph, with higher gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Saturday, July 19, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
Initial attack activity: Light (163 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Uncontained large fires: 36
Large fires contained: 0
States with Large fires - AK, CA, CO, LA, NC, TX, UT, VA, and WA
Chance of a few thunderstorms over northern California, southern Oregon and the Great Basin.  Otherwise, hot and dry over much of the West.  Gusty winds are expected in Montana, Wyoming and portions of the Great Basin.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)