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National Situation Update: Thursday, May 29, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest:  Showers and thunderstorms over the Great Plains today with widespread storms likely over Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa.

Severe storms may develop over the High Plains this afternoon then move eastward through Minnesota and Iowa with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.  Cities potentially impacted Thursday/Thursday night include Omaha, Neb., Des Moines, Iowa, and Sioux Falls, S.D.

South:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot portions of the Southeast mainly from North Carolina westward through Georgia and northern Florida into Alabama. Texas, Oklahoma and Florida Peninsula will be in the 90s to near 100 in the Big Bend country of Texas.

West:  Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered across the West today from Washington, Oregon and California eastward into Montana and Wyoming.
Isolated afternoon storms may expand over Colorado and New Mexico.
High temperatures are expected to range from the 40s in the high Sierras to just over 100 in southwest Arizona.    (NWS, Media Sources)

Hurricane Preparedness Week - Forecast Process

Part of the mission of the National Weather Service (NWS) Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) is to save lives and protect property by issuing watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous weather conditions in the tropics.

The TPC is comprised of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), and the Technical Support Branch (TSB). During hurricane season, the latter two provide support to the NHC.

The local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in hurricane-prone areas are also important participants in the forecast process.  The NHC and your local WFO have various roles in the forecast process that are closely coordinated. Their activities are summarized below.

OBSERVATION
Observations including satellites, buoys, reconnaissance aircraft, and radar are the basis for all forecast and warning products issued by the NHC.
ANALYSIS
Observations are checked for quality, analyzed, and put into a suite of computer models.
 MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTERPRETATION
The computer models generate predictions of hurricane behavior and general conditions of the atmosphere in which the hurricane is embedded. The predictions are packaged as guidance for the appropriate national centers and local offices and for evaluation and use in the NWS forecast and warning process.
COORDINATION WITHIN THE NWS
Forecasts and warnings are coordinated between the national centers and local forecast offices to provide consistency.
PRODUCT GENERATION
When the coordination and collaboration process reaches consensus, the issuing offices generate forecast and warning products for release to the public.
PRODUCT DISSEMINATION
Timely and reliable release of forecasts and warnings is critical to the protection of life and property.
COORDINATION WITH CUSTOMERS
The NHC and local NWS forecast office work with community leaders to determine whether the forecast and warning products issued were useful and how they can provide you even better service in the future.   (National Hurricane Center)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No request has been made.  (FEMA HQ)   

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant Activity to report.

Eastern Pacific:
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located about 90 miles south-southwest Nicaragua.

The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph.  A turn to the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours. 

On the forecast track the center of the depression will be very close to the coast of Nicaragua during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  The depression is expected to become a tropical storm as it approaches the coast.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

Western Pacific: No activity affecting U.S. Territories. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On May 29, 2008 at 2:14 am Guam (May 28, 12:14 pm EDT), a magnitude 5.4 earthquake struck 10 miles southeast of Hagatna, Guam at a depth of 33 miles.  There were no reports of damage or injuries, and there was no Tsunami generated.  (USGS, PTWC, FEMA region IX)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 2

National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, May 28:

Initial attack activity: Moderate (202 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 1
Uncontained large fires: 9

Weather Discussion: In the Southwest, there is a chance of dry thunderstorms over the mountains of western New Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday along with some gusty winds over portions of Arizona and New Mexico on Wednesday. In Florida, dry weather is on tap the next couple of days. Mild weather and relatively high humidity should continue over California through Thursday.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, NGB)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President approved FEMA-1764-DR for Mississippi, May 28, 2008.

The incident is for Severe Storms and Tornadoes.
The FCO will be Michael L. Parker
One (1) county was approved for Individual Assistance
One (1) county was approved for Public Assistance
All counties are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.  

The Governor of Illinois submitted an appeal and amended appeal for a major disaster declaration as a result of severe storms producing heavy rain and flooding beginning on March 17, 2008, and continuing. 

Governor Blagojevich initially appealed for Individual Assistance for 15 counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.  On May 27, 2008, the Governor amended his request to include Public Assistance for 21 counties.  (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:35:54 EDT