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National Situation Update: Thursday, May 22, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest  
The threat of severe storms, with a chance of dangerous tornadoes, is forecast for central and western Nebraska and Kansas today.  Heavy showers are possible today in parts of Missouri.  Gusty winds are forecast across the Plains through this evening.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Kansas until 11:00 pm EDT as a result of gusty winds and low humidity.

South
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, western Tennessee, southern Georgia and Florida today.  Severe storms may develop over western Oklahoma this evening, bringing the possibility of tornadoes.  Heavy to excessive rainfall is forecast late tonight along the central Gulf Coast and will shift eastward tomorrow night.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Oklahoma and Texas until 11:00 pm EDT as a result of gusty winds and low humidity. 

West
The east slopes of mountain ranges in Montana and Wyoming can get heavy rainfall which could increase the flooding threat from rivers already running full with snow-melt runoff.  In Utah, heavy snow is forecast for the higher elevations of the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Colorado and southern New Mexico until 11:00 pm EDT as a result of gusty winds and low humidity.

Northeast
Showers are forecast for much of the Northeast today.  Showers will keep the temperatures across the region, below normal from the 40s southwest New York northwest Pennsylvania to the 70s in most of Virginia and south western West Virginia.  (NWS, Media Sources)

NOAA Model Projects Fewer, But More Intense Atlantic Hurricanes Late This Century

Greenhouse Gases Have Little Impact in Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers

A new model simulation of Atlantic hurricane activity for the last two decades of this century projects fewer hurricanes overall, but a slight increase in intensity for hurricanes that do occur. Hurricanes are also projected to have more intense rainfall, on average, in the future. The findings are reported in a study by scientists at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J.  "This study adds more support to the consensus finding of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other reports that it is likely that hurricanes will gradually become more intense as the climate continues to warm," said Tom Knutson, research meteorologist and lead author of the report.  The scientists performed hurricane simulations using a new regional model that offers both higher resolution and an improved ability to simulate past observed changes in Atlantic hurricane activity.  In the new study, the model was used to test the influence of greenhouse gas warming on Atlantic hurricane activity through the end of the 21st century. Simulations reveal higher levels of wind shear and other changes, which act to reduce the overall number of hurricanes in the model.  The study suggests that in the Atlantic basin, global warming from increasing greenhouse gases will have little impact, or perhaps cause some decrease, in tropical storm and hurricane numbers. (NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)   

Tornado Activity

Georgia
An EF-1 Tornado was reported in Cherokee County on May 20 with Severe Storms in Fulton and Heard Counties.  The Georgia EOC at Level III (Normal Operations) and the Cherokee County unified command was terminated with no request for assistance (FEMA Region IV)

Joint PDA Requests

No requests for Joint PDAs.(FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant Activity to report.
Eastern Pacific: No significant Activity to report.
Western Pacific: No activity affecting U.S. Territories. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report.  (USGS, PTWC)

Wildfire Update

Florida
Paisley Fire
The Paisley Wildfire is located in Lake County, FL approximately 50 miles northwest of Orlando, FL.  The wildfire began on Wednesday, May 21, 2008; it is estimated at 600+ acres by Fire/Rescue.  The County EOC is partial activated, Lake County, FL is at Level-2 activation, and there is no local State of Emergency.  Evacuations are mandatory for the Deerhaven Community that was evacuated as a precaution.  One road into and out of the neighborhood was the reason for the evacuation.  There is one shelter opened with 50 people in the parking lot and 35 in the shelter.  There are currently no unmet needs and no requests for Federal Assistance.  

Mustang Corner Fire, Everglades National Park
Everglades grass fire, 10 miles northwest of Homestead, FL.  The fire has burned over 39,465 acres and is 70% contained.  The National Park Service is working to keep the fire within the park boundary.  There are personnel from around the country involved and are being supported by a variety of aircraft.  There is no reported impact on any Critical Infrastructure and Key Resources in the vicinity of the fire. (Everglades National Park, NICC )

Disaster Declaration Activity

No Disaster Declarations requested.(FEMA HQ)