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National Situation Update: Sunday, May 11, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

South:
The cold front which produced yesterday's severe weather over the Central Plains, Mississippi and Tennessee valleys has moved over the Southeast. Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Florida Gulf Coast to the Mid Atlantic. These storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. There is a tornado watch for portions of northern and central Alabama, of northern and central Georgia, and parts of southern and western South Carolina coastal waters until 10:00 am EDT. See  www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ for the latest watches. Highs will range from the 80s across the northern part of the Region to 100 near the Mexican Border.

Midwest:
Strong thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall are expected this morning near the deepening surface low across much of the Midwest, Plains States and Lower Mississippi Valley.  The heaviest rainfall and thunderstorms will shift eastward into the Appalachians and mid Atlantic states tonight and Monday morning. The heavy rain will move eastward to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. One to three inches of rain is forecast from South Dakota to Ohio. Localized flooding is possible due to the saturated ground; the additional water will contribute to ongoing flooding on the upper Mississippi.  Highs will range from the 40s near the Great Lakes and in the Ohio Valley to 70s over the Plains.

Northeast:
The weather system moving out of the Midwest will bring showery precipitation and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic by midday and will move into New York state and Southern New England tonight
Rainfall amounts of two to four inches are possible by Monday. Given the already saturated ground localized flash flooding is likely. High temperatures will be range from the 60s in the mid Atlantic to the upper 40s.

West:
A frontal system will produce showers over the Pacific Northwest and rain (snow in higher elevations) across parts of Montana to northern Utah on Sunday. Temperatures across the Northwest will be relatively cool. However, melting snow may cause some localized flooding across the Northwest and northern Rockies. The Southwest will be hot, dry and windy. Fire danger remains high from southeast California to West Texas. (NWS, Storm prediction Center, Various Media Sources)

Severe weather Outbreak:

A deep surface low pressure system and associated frontal system moved across the Central Plains last night and into the mid Mississippi and Tennessee valleys this morning. This system combined with warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico produced a significant severe weather outbreak across the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley.

Region IV
State Actions Mississippi

• EOC Level IV (Normal)
• The counties of Desoto, Marshell, and Panila are reporting trees and power lines down, road closures and possible homes damaged.

State Actions Alabama

• EOC Level IV (Normal), monitoring situation.
• No reports of fatalities, but possible injuries.
• Cullman, Lawrence, Marion, and Morgan Counties reported damage including downed trees and possible structure damage.
• No requests for assistance at this time.

Region VI
State Actions Oklahoma

• The Town of Picher reports twenty neighborhood block reported impacted.
• 6 unconfirmed fatalities in Ottawa and Pittsburg counties.          
• Oklahoma EOC watch officer is monitoring the situation.
• Unknown number of injuries.
• 3,000 customers without electric service.
• Damage assessments underway.
• No additional requests for assistance at this time.
• OK DPS dispatched Mobile Command Center to Picher; will provide communications support and act as command vehicle.
• Scheduling over flight of impacted area tomorrow, the Governor may be onboard.
• American Red Cross is setting up a shelter; no shelter numbers.
• Oklahoma Department of Public Safety (DPS) providing 18 troopers.
• As of 7:00am on May 11, OK National Guard will provide 25 soldiers to assist in Picher

State Actions Arkansas

• Unknown number of injuries.
• Four people reported missing (Arkansas County).
• Damage assessments underway.
• Reports of Tornado damage in Arkansas County.
• Arkansas Department of Emergency Management (ADEM) is activated to Level 3 (limited activation).
• An ADEM liaison has been dispatched to Stuttgart in Arkansas County.
• No additional requests for assistance at this time.

Region VII
State Actions Missouri

• The State of Missouri has deployed Missouri Task Force One (Boone County/Columbia state asset) to the impacted area.
• The State EOC is activated at a level 2.
• 12 confirmed fatalities.
• Unknown number of injuries.
• 3 shelters open, no shelter numbers at this time.
• Power outages are scattered.
• Numerous tornadoes have touched down and damages are being reported in four communities (Newton County and Jasper County).
• No additional requests for assistance at this time

State Actions Kansas

Mississippi Valley Flooding

Currently, no river gauges along the Mississippi River are reporting Major Flood Levels; however, Moderate Flood Levels continue at many gauges. (Region IV, Region V, Region VI RRCC, National Weather Service, FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

Five earthquakes ranging from 2.0 to 4.4 magnitudes have occurred South of Atka, Alaska between 4:48 a.m. to 10:22 a.m. EDT May 10, at a depth of 20 to 62 miles.  No injuries or damage have been reported.  No tsunami advisory, watch or warning is in effect for these areas.
An earthquake of 4.7 magnitude occurred 12:03 a.m. 63 miles south southeast of Cordova, Alaska, at a depth of 9.9 miles.  No injuries or damage have been reported.  No tsunami advisory, watch or warning is in effect for these areas.  (USGS, FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, May 10:
Initial attack activity: Light (148 new fires)
New large fires: 1
Large fires contained: 4
Uncontained large fires: 8
Weather Discussion:  Dry and windy conditions continue for New Mexico and west Texas today.  The Southeast will begin to see some light precipitation today ahead of a stronger storm system. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center,  NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, NGB)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)