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National Situation Update: Thursday, May 1, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

Midwest
A powerful storm will bring strong winds and thunderstorms to the Great Plains and Midwest today.  Southwestern North Dakota, western South Dakota and western Nebraska are forecast for heavy snow.
Moderate rain will extend eastward from the eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska into Michigan.  
Farther south, severe thunderstorms are expected today over eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas, and continue into Iowa and western Missouri this evening.
Red Flag Warnings continue for western Oklahoma until 9:00 p.m. CDT today, due to warm temperatures and low relative humidity.

West
Snow is forecast for southeast Montana, eastern Wyoming and the mountains of Colorado.  Near blizzard conditions are expected for southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming.  Red Flag Warnings exist until late tonight due to strong winds combined with high temperatures and low humidity in New Mexico and southern Colorado, producing extreme or critical fire weather conditions.  Highs will range from the 20s in Yellowstone National Park and higher Colorado Rockies, to the 90s in far southwest Arizona and extreme southeast New Mexico; most of Washington and Oregon will peak in the 50s.

South
Isolated showers and storms are anticipated over far eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas and Arkansas with strong winds expected over the southern U.S. resulting from the storm system over the Great Plains.
Red Flag Warnings exist through late tonight due to hot temperatures combined with low humidity and strong winds causing critical fire weather conditions over most of West Texas and the Panhandle, Big Bend and western areas of Florida.  High temperatures are expected to be in the 70s and 80s.  Texas is forecast in the 90s from Wichita Falls southward to McAllen.

Northeast
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop along southern New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and parts of West Virginia.  Numerous Flood Warnings and Watches continue for the next 24 hours in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont.  High temperatures will be mostly near seasonal averages ranging from the 40s in northern Maine to the 70s in Virginia and West Virginia.  (NWS)

Maine Flooding

Historically high flooding is taking place on the St. John and Fish Rivers in Fort Kent, Maine with localized flooding in other regions of the state.  Both rivers will recede to below Flood Stage by Friday, May 2, 2008.
The rivers at Fort Kent have crested.  Thirty to forty homes throughout Aroostook County were evacuated and shelters have been opened. 
The State Emergency Operations Center is activated and the Governor has declared a State of Emergency for Aroostook County.  The Maine National Guard has two Title-32 personnel enroute as Liaison Officers to Aroostook County.  A U.S. Coast Guard team has pre-positioned helicopters in the area in support of the flooding.
The Mill Pond Dam on the Salmon Brook upstream from the Aroostook River continues to hold and the status will be monitored and closely watched.  (NORTHCOM, NWS AHPS)

Mississippi Valley Flooding

State EOCs, Regional Offices and the NRCC continue to monitor current river levels in the Mississippi Valley.  Flood Warnings and Watches continue for the Mississippi River Valley from Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri to Arkansas and Louisiana.
The Mississippi River remains at Major Flood Stage at locations in Illinois, Missouri, Iowa and Louisiana; however, most Major Flood Stage gauges on the Mississippi began to recede Wednesday and will continue through Thursday, May 1, 2008.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Severe Storm and Tornado Activity in Southeast Virginia

The National Weather Service confirmed eight tornadoes touched down in various locations in Virginia:  Two EF-0 tornadoes struck in both Gloucester and Mathews Counties and one EF-3 tornado has touched down in the City of Suffolk.  Five EF-1 tornadoes were confirmed in Brunswick, Surry, Isle of Wright, and Halifax counties, as well as the City of Colonial Heights.

• Injuries: 194 treated and released; 4 currently hospitalized.
• No shelters reported open.
• Homes damaged: 56 (+8) destroyed ; 77 (+35) with major damage; 240 (+80) with minor damage
• Power outages: 17 customers in the Southeastern affected area (as of 6:45 p.m.EDT April 30 - power outage numbers down from 1, 953)

The Commonwealth of Virginia has requested Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs), which are scheduled to begin on Thursday, May 1.  A State of Emergency was declared on April 28, with four local declarations.  The four local declarations are the City of Colonial Heights, the City of Suffolk, Brunswick and Isle of Wight Counties  (Region III)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

• A 4.4 magnitude earthquake occurred twelve miles SSE of Lake Isabella, CA or 98 miles north of Los Angeles Civic Center at 4:11 a.m. EDT at a depth of 2 miles.  No reports of injuries or damage reported.
• A 3.3 magnitude earthquake occurred five miles NW of Mount Carmel, IL at 1:30 a.m. EDT at a depth of 3.1 miles.  No reports of injuries or damage reported.
• A 4.2 magnitude earthquake occurred fourteen miles NNW of Borrego Springs, CA or 60 miles NE of San Diego, CA at 11:55 EDT at a depth of 3.6 miles.  No reports of injuries or damage reported.
• In the last 24 hours there has been 17 temblors reported in the Reno, Willow Creek, and Verdi-Mogul area of Nevada.  The Earthquake Magnitude ranges from 1.0 to 3.0, with an average depth of three miles.  (USGS, FEMA HQ, Region IX)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 1
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, April 30, 2008:

• Initial attack activity: Light (104 new fires)
• New large fires: 2 (Nevada and Arizona)
• Large fires contained: 0
• Uncontained large fires: 11

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1749-MO: Amendment # 5 was received on April 30, adding two counties, Dade and Vernon, to those already approved for Public Assistance (already designated for emergency protective measures -Category B). (FEMA HQ)