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National Situation Update: Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

Northeast
The majority of the region will be dry today, with the exception of a few showers over Maryland, Virginia and extreme northern Maine.  Temperatures for Upstate New York and New England are forecast in the 70s.
Flood Warnings continue for numerous rivers in New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine.

South
Scattered showers and thunderstorm will develop across parts of Oklahoma, eastern Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, western Tennessee and northern Mississippi.  A few thunderstorms over Arkansas, Louisiana and eastern Texas may become severe with large amounts of hail and gusty winds.  High temperatures are forecast from the 60s across Virginia and northern North Carolina to the upper 70s and 80s in Florida.  Red Flag Warnings are in effect for Florida from 2:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. EDT for low humidity.   Strong warm winds and warmer temperatures will enhance fire growth potential.

Midwest
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Missouri and Oklahoma.  A few thunderstorms may become severe with large hail across parts of southwest Missouri.
Highs are forecast to range from the 50s across northern Minnesota to the 70s in the Ohio Valley.
Flood Watches are in effect in Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa and Illinois.

West
Showers and mountain snow showers are forecast for the Pacific Northwest, northern California and western Montana today.  A Snow Advisory is in effect for late season heavy snow in central Oregon today.  A strong low pressure system off the Oregon coast will spread Pacific moisture across central Oregon.  A Freeze Warning remains in effect for portions of Washington and Oregon until 11:00 a.m. PDT today. (NWS, Various Media Sources)

Mississippi Valley Flooding

CURRENT SITUATION
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms, including the possibility of isolated tornadoes, damaging winds and quarter size hail, from northeastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and eastern Oklahoma, much of Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, northwestern Mississippi, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, southern Illinois and far southwestern Indiana.  Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect in Mississippi, Louisiana, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa, Arkansas and Illinois.

FEDERAL RESPONSE
FEMA Region IV
Mississippi: Joint IA PDAs are ongoing.
Kentucky Joint PA PDAs are ongoing.
No outstanding issues and no unmet needs.
FEMA Region VI
Oklahoma: Joint PA PDAs ongoing. Currently there are 21 scheduled from April 17-25.
Arkansas:IA and PA PDAs are ongoing; 53 of 56 counties completed for PA; 45 of 49 counties completed for IA. 
No outstanding issues and no unmet needs.
Other Government Agencies
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
158 USACE personnel from 2 Corps' Divisions (MVD, SWD) and 7 Districts continue to support USACE floodfighting activities. USACE is no longer providing ESF #3 support and USACE LNO representation. (USACE, Denton MOC, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, USCG, FEMA HQ)

STATE and LOCAL RESPONSE
Arkansas
Major/Moderate Flooding Update:

• Mississippi River:  There are three flood gauges above major levels at Arkansas City, Greenville and at Vicksburg.
• White River:  There are two flood gauges that are above major flood levels at Des Arc and Clarenden.  (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Louisiana:
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers threat assessment of the main line levees on the Mississippi River from Northern Louisiana to the Gulf of Mexico and the main line levees in the Atchafalaya River, indicates no expected overtopping based on the current river crest forecast by the NWS at this time.(GOHSEP Sit Rep)
Major/Moderate River Flooding:

• Mississippi River:
  • Baton Rougeis at 42.94 ft, Major Flood Stage, and forecast to steadily rise; cresting near 43 ft by Tuesday morning, April 22, 5 feet below baseline height of the levee,then remain steady throughout the forecast period.(GOHSEP sit rep, Region VI)  No flooding issues at this time effecting the citizens or property. (GOHSEP Sit Rep)
  • Bonnet Carre Spillway in operations with 160 of 350 Bays currently open; additional bays opened April 19. There is no expected impact on residents or businesses. (GOHSEP Sit Rep)

Mississippi:
Major/Moderate Flooding:

Hawiin Volcano Plume

A second explosion from the new vent in Halema`uma`u Crater occurred on April 9, 2008, producing a white plume. Trade winds blew a toxic plume out over the ocean and away from inhabited areas.  Seasonal north easterly trade winds effects SO2 emissions which remain elevated and are hazardous to humans.  Hawaii State Civil Defense tasked JFHQ-HI to provide the 93rd CST  to monitor  SO2 content and wind direction providing early warning for communities effected by SO2 emissions.  Hawai'i County has established an evacuation plan for local communities, if needed over 54,000 civilians in Kailua-Kona and Hilo area. (Smithsonian and USGS)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG 2762-FM-NM was declared on April 21, 2008.  The fire is located in the Cibola National Forest, 60 miles southeast of Albuquerque, NM.  The fire has burned is 3,475 acres, approximately 200 people were voluntarily evacuated; 1500 residences are threatened.  No injuries; 9 residences, 9 outbuildings, 2 vehicles destroyed. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)