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National Situation Update: Monday, April 21, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

Northeast
Wet weather will dominate in Virginia, Maryland and Delaware Monday with a few showers reaching into Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
The wettest conditions will occur in Virginia where some locations could pick up several inches of rain.

South
Showers and thunderstorms will affect North Carolina and South Carolina Monday.
The significant shower activity will focus on northeast North Carolina as an upper-air low nears the coast; rainfall totals of several inches are possible.

Midwest
A few thunderstorms could turn severe late in the day across Iowa, Kansas and Missouri.

West
Scattered rain and mountain snow showers will affect areas from the Pacific Northwest to Montana and Wyoming Monday.(NWS, Various Media Sources)

Mississippi Valley Flooding

CURRENT SITUATION
A cold front from the West arrived in the high Plains brining scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Rain will increase from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley and some of the thunderstorms could turn severe in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri. 
The front will move eastward Tuesday and Wednesday as scattered showers and thunderstorms move through the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. 

FEDERAL RESPONSE
FEMA Region IV
Mississippi: Joint IA PDAs scheduled to begin April 21, 2008.
Kentucky Joint PA PDAs scheduled to begin on April 21, 2008
No outstanding issues and no unmet needs
FEMA Region VI
S1 to visit Louisiana on April 21-22, 2008
Oklahoma: Joint PA PDAs ongoing.
No outstanding issues and no unmet needs

Other Government Agencies
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
193 USACE personnel currently engaged in flood fighting activities.
Levee seepages and boil activities are increasing in MS, AR, LA. 
Technical assistance, levee patrols and inspections are ongoing. 
Supporting FEMA Region VI in Denton, TX with 1 Team Leader and 1 LNO for flood fighting activities.(Denton MOC, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, USACE, FEMA HQ)

STATE and LOCAL RESPONSE
Arkansas
Damages have not changed since last report

  • Major/Moderate Flooding Update:
    • White River:
    • Clarendon is at 33.73 ft, Major Flood Stage, and is holding steady; however, the river is forecast to recede but remain at Major Flood Stage throughout the forecast period. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service).

Louisiana:

  • Mississippi River:
  • Baton Rouge: Sand boil have been reported at "Big Mamou" currently showing no change in activity as only clear water is flowing from the side of the bank wall. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, GOHSEP Sit Rep)

Mississippi:
The State EOC is currently at Level III Partially Activated w/MEMA staff only.
There is currently 1 shelter being reported with 2 occupants
The number of damaged homes and business hasn't changed since the last report.

  • Mississippi River: 
  • Natchez is at 56.78 ft., Moderate Flood Stage,and is forecast to reach 57.0 ft, Major Flood Stage, by Monday, April 21, 2008.
  • Impact at 57 ft includes flooding of Bourke Road and homes south of Natchez, in the township of Ft Adams (Region IV RRCC, Region V RRCC, Region VI RRCC, Arkansas Department of Emergency Management (ADEM) Emergency Operations Center, Louisiana Governor's Office of State Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOSHEP), Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management, Texas Division of Emergency Management State Operations Center, National Weather Service, National Guard Bureau, USACE.)

Central U.S. Earthquake

Background
The epicenter of Fridays 5.2 earthquake and numerous aftershocks was in southern Illinois about 230 miles south of Chicago in the Wabash Valley seismic zone. The Wabash Valley region in southeastern Illinois and southwestern Indiana has been an area of persistent seismicity and the site of several moderate magnitude (M=4.5-5.8) historical earthquakes but little is known about the causative faults.

This map is of the New Madrid and Wabash Valley seismic zones. Red circles indicate earthquakes occurring from 1974 to 2002 with magnitudes larger than 2.5 (University of Memphis). Green circles denote earthquakes occurring prior to 1974. Larger earthquakes are represented by larger circles. For a more complete discussion see pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-131-02/fs-131-02.pdf.

Preparations
While Friday's earthquake occurred in the Wabash Valley seismic zone, Emergency Managers have long been concerned with earthquakes in the central United States, in particular the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). FEMA has been working with eight (8) states in the NMSZ since July 2006 to develop a response plan for a catastrophic earthquake in the region.  This is the most comprehensive and complex catastrophic disaster planning conducted in U.S. history.  It involves partnerships and collaboration among four FEMA Regions (IV,V, VI, and VII); eight (8) states; more than 200 local governments; multiple federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Transportation, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Health and Human Services, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the U.S. Northern Command and the American Red Cross; the Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium (CUSEC); business, industry and voluntary organizations; as well as contractors and scientific and academic intuitions.

For the NMSZ planning project, FEMA has also deployed emergency planners to the eight NMSZ states and to FEMA Regions IV, V, VI, and VII to support planning activity. Earthquake capabilities assessments have been completed for each of the eight NMSZ states, and more than 20 planning workshops have been held to date, with 16 more scheduled. These include seven more state-level workshops, four FEMA Regional workshops, a National-level workshop, three geographic-focused workshops (for St. Louis, Memphis, and Cairo, IL) and a final workshop focused on integration of all plans.

In Illinois specifically, two state-level planning workshops have been held involving approximately 60 state officials. Topics included direction and control, search and rescue, communications, logistics and resource management, mass care, sheltering, damage assessment, transportation and debris removal, and other areas. Three local tabletop exercises have also been conducted throughout Southern Illinois. These focused on communications, patient tracking, emergency medical, public health, transportation, and resource management. Local planning workshops that will involve approximately 200 people from state and local government in Illinois are scheduled for summer 2008. (USGS, FEMA's Catastrophic Disaster Planning Branch)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

Monday, April 21, 2008 at 1:38 am EDT an earthquake measuring 4.5 occurred 5 miles NW of Mount Carmel, Illinois and 131 miles E of St. Louis, MO at a depth of 6.5 miles, There are no reports of damage or injuries.  (USGS, NOAA, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:36:38 EDT