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National Situation Update: Thursday, April 10, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
A significant weather outbreak continues over Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and western Arkansas where severe thunderstorms with damaging wind, large hail and tornadoes have been erupting since Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage and intensity through the day as the entire storm moves into the Plains. Threats include damaging straight line winds, large hail and flooding rainfall as well as the development of large, destructive tornadoes. Tornado watches and warnings span from south central Texas to western Arkansas. Conditions in Arkansas could become quite dangerous with numerous large and long-lived tornadoes possible. Cloudbursts may produce flash flooding in the state. Red Flag Warnings are in effect through the evening for west Texas for high winds and gusts of up to 50-60 mph, coupled with low humidity.

Midwest
Strong to severe thunderstorms will occur across the Midwest over the next few days as a powerful storm system moves out of the Southwest and toward the Great Lakes region. The entire Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley will be threatened by severe thunderstorms, with much of Missouri, southwest Illinois and Arkansas being under the greatest threat of damaging winds, large hail and destructive tornadoes. With many areas still saturated from recent rainfall, a renewed flood threat is also a concern for many of these areas.

On the Great Plains a mix of wind-driven rain and snow will prevail, mainly from South Dakota southward. In western Nebraska and southwest South Dakota the precipitation may be mostly snow, several inches of accumulation are forecast. Late afternoon or evening heavy, wet, wind-driven snow is expected to develop from the eastern portions of the northern Plains into the northern reaches of the Upper Midwest. Ten to 16 inches of snow is forecast for the western Great Lakes region. Blizzard Warnings, Snow Advisories, and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect through the evening and into Saturday, April 12, 2008. The threat of severe weather will move into southern Wisconsin, western Indiana and western Kentucky late tonight.

Northeast
The vast majority of the northeastern U. S. will be dry today. Light rain showers are possible for northern Maine, West Virginia, western Maryland and northern Virginia.

West
Mountain snow is forecast for the northwest Mountain States, especially across eastern Montana, eastern Wyoming and much of Colorado. In eastern Wyoming and Colorado the majority of the precipitation is forecast as possible snow; Denver could experience four to eight inches of slushy accumulation. It will be sunny throughout California, southern Nevada, Arizona and southern New Mexico. High winds and gusts of up to 50-60 mph, coupled with low humidity, will produce extremely critical fire weather conditions for southeast Arizona and southeast New Mexico. Red Flag Warnings are in effect through the evening. (NWS, Various Media Sources)

Tornado Touchdowns, Storm Damage and Flooding

Tornadoes occurred in Texas and Oklahoma on Wednesday evening, April 9, 2008, marking the beginning of a widespread outbreak of tornadoes and flooding rain that will spread from west-central and northern Texas, Oklahoma to Ohio and is forecast to continue through Thursday. Severe thunderstorm and Tornado Watches and Warnings are in effect through Thursday for a large part of the central U.S. from Illinois southward through east Texas and Louisiana in anticipation of thunderstorms producing tornadoes, possibly large hail, and strong damaging winds. Northern and northeast Texas, most of Oklahoma, western Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northwest Alabama and northern Louisiana appear to be the most susceptible.

On Wednesday, April 9, 2008 several tornadoes (unconfirmed) touched down: A tornado moved through Breckenridge, TX Wednesday afternoon damaging eight homes and the airport, and causing considerable power outages throughout the town.

Storm spotters and first responders report numerous tornadoes touching down in Oklahoma, primarily in the southeast area of the State. Large, golf ball sized hail, high winds, and gusts to 60mph also accompanied these storms. Injuries were reported in Muldrow, OK. Six homes and two outbuildings sustained major damage and utility poles were uprooted. OG&E reports 10,382 customers without power, including 3,417 in Dyer, 2,515 in Alma, and 1,666 in Muldrow. The Oklahoma Department of Transportation reported highways closed due to high water, downed power lines and debris across roadways.

Update - Voluntary Evacuation of Volcano, Hawaii

On April 8, 2008 the Hawaii County Civil Defense called for a voluntary evacuation of residents in the vicinity of Volcano, Hawaii due to harmful sulfur dioxide emissions from Kilauea Volcano in the Volcanoes National Park. As of 11:45 a.m. HST Wednesday, April 9, 2008 the Aunty Sally Luau Hale Shelter in Hilo was closed and all occupants returned to their homes. Winds have shifted, and authorities believe that the harmful emissions from the Kilauea Volcano summit area do not presently pose a threat. Air conditions have improved to Code YELLOW status, indicating only a light level of sulfur dioxide. The voluntary evacuation alert for residential areas close to the Kilauea summit has been lifted, however residents are advised to be on the alert and prepared. No request for Federal Assistance has been received. (Region IX, Hawaii State Civil Defense)

Mississippi Valley Flooding Update

CURRENT SITUATION
Flood Warnings, Flood Watches, and Flood Statements are in effect along the Mississippi River Valley from Louisiana northward to Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. Localized river flooding will continue for parts of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys.

STATE AND LOCAL RESPONSE
Arkansas
The Arkansas State EOC is minimally staffed. The fatality total is three. 51 counties are affected and 51 counties are under State Disaster Declaration. Major Disaster declaration FEMA-1751 was signed March 26, 2008. 35 counties are approved for Public Assistance (PA) and 11 counties are approved for Individual (IA). Six Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) teams in the field have completed PA PDAs for 37 of 45 counties that requested assessments. One shelter is open with a population of 25. There were 151 homes destroyed and 471 damaged. Levee and Major/Moderate Flooding update:

• Levees:
  • Green County had an agricultural levee breach; one home was impacted.
  • The levee in Prairie County is being reinforced by the Corps of Engineers using barrels and sandbags to mitigate the problem. They will continue to monitor the levee. (Region VI)
• White River:
  • Newport crested at Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to fall below Moderate Flood Stage by April 9, 2008.
  • Georgetown crested April 8, 2008 at Moderate Flood Stage and is receding.  It is forecast to remain at Moderate Flood Stage through April 14, 2008.
  • Des Arc crested April 9, 2008 and will hold steady at Major Flood Stage through April 13, 2008.
  • Clarendon will hold steady at Major Flood Stage through April 14, 2008.
• Black River:
  • Pocahontas is at Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to drop below Moderate Flood Stage April 10, 2008.
  • One section of levee at Pocahontas, AR remains underwater; locals may attempt to conduct temporary repairs when drainage permits. (USACE)
• The Mississippi River:
  • Arkansas City is at Moderate Flood Stage and forecast to crest on April 11, 2008; it will hold steady at Moderate Flood Stage through April 14, 2008. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service).

Illinois
The Illinois State EOC is operating 8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT (normal operations). Two fatalities have been attributed to flooding. Nineteen counties are declared States of Emergency. The Governor has requested a Major Disaster Declaration as a result of severe storms producing heavy rain and flooding beginning on March 17, 2008 and continuing. He is requesting Hazard Mitigation statewide, and Individual Assistance for 15 counties. (Region V) There is one shelter open with a population of eight.
USACE furnished 3 pumps to Brookport, IL and 4 pumps to Karnack, IL. Three pumps were also provided to Smithfield, KY. USACE also provided technical assistance for the community. Joint Individual Assistance Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) have been completed in 12 counties.
Major/Moderate River Flooding:

• Ohio River:
  • Cairo is holding steady at Moderate Flood Stage.
  • Grand Chain Dam crested at Major Flood Stage and is forecast to fall below Major Flood Stage on April 10, 2008 and slowly recede. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)
  • Shawneetown is at Moderate Flood Stage and is expected to crest on April 10, 2008 then fall below Moderate Flood Stage on April 13, 2008. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)
• Big Muddy River:
  • Plumfield crested atModerate Flood Stage and is expected to fall below Moderate Flood Stage byApril 10, 2008. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)
  • Murphysboro is maintaining Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to fall below Moderate flood stage on April 12, 2008. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)
• Little Wabash River:
  • Carmi is at Moderate Flood Stage and is expected to fall below Moderate Flood Stage by April 11, 2008. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)

Louisiana
The Louisiana State EOC is partially activated. On March 27, 2008, the Governor of Louisiana issued a State of Emergency from March 24, 2008 to April 22, 2008. Nine parishes have declared States of Emergency.

• USACE considering use of Bonnet Carre Spillway that protects New Orleans and other downstream communities by diverting flood waters into Lake Pontchartrain.
  • USACE evaluation of flow of water on the river at the spillway has not reached a level where a decision to open the gates is required. (Region VI)
• Based on NWS, the New Orleans Office of Emergency Preparedness, and USACE assessment that no levees will be overtopped and river will crest well below the maximum protection height of the New Orleans levees.
• Current NWS Mississippi River crest forecast seven feet below max levee height on April 16, 2008 (NO OEP/NWS/USACE/Region VI)
• USACE has fortified over two miles of the "Potato Ridge" levee across the Fore Bay to the Morganza Flood Control structure and is continuing to provide engineering support. (NICC)
• LA DOTD providing 40 dump trucks to haul sand to sandbagging operations in Vidalia to control "sand boils" below the levees.
• The ring levee surrounding Angola was intentionally breached to eliminate extensive damage to the levee if overtopped. 5,300 acres of farm and pastureland flooded.
• Mississippi River Major/Moderate River Flooding update:
  • Red River Landing is currently at Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to continue rising through April 13, 2008. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)
  • Baton Rouge is at Moderate Flood Stage and will continue to rise to Major Flood Stage on April 10, 2008. The river is forecast to steadily rise through April 13, 2008. River traffic and industrial activity will be affected. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)

Mississippi
The Mississippi State EOC is at Level III (Partially Activated w/MEMA and key State agencies only).
There has been one drowning and 95 people displaced. The Governor declared a State of Emergency for 33 counties on April 4, 2008. Two American Red Cross shelters are open with a population of nine. Mississippi State PDAs indicate 3 homes destroyed and 37 homes with major damage. The State has requested two Individual Asistance (IA) and one Public Assistance (PA) Preliminary Damage Assessment Teamsdue to damages from severe weather on April 4-5, 2008. Assesments began April 9, 2008. (Region IV)

• Mississippi River Major/Moderate Flooding update:
  • Greenville, MS is at Moderate Flood Stage and forecast to rise through April 11, 2008. Practically all areas between levees are flooded and approximately 50 buildings have water inside.
  • Vicksburg, MS is at Moderate Flood Stage and rising. The river is forecast to continue minimal rising through April 13, 2008.
  • Natchez, MS is at Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to steadily rise through April 13, 2008.(Region V, Region VII, Region VI, NWS, NSS, NGB, NICC, ADEM, TX SOC, IL EOC, ARC, MEMA, NOAA)

FEDERAL RESPONSE
FEMA Region IV
RRCC is at Level III, 8:00 a.m. - 11:00 p.m. EDT (Mon-Fri). PDAs are ongoing in Mississippi

FEMA Region V
RRCC is at Level III, 7:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT (Mon-Fri). FEMA state liaisons identified for state EOCs, if requested. IA PDAs for 12 counties in Illinois began April 1, 2008 and were completed as of April 7, 2008.

FEMA Region VI
RRCC is at Level III, 7:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT (Mon-Fri). FEMA state liaison deployed to Texas EOC. The Region is Conducting daily conference calls with Texas and the National Weather Service. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) New Orleans District is currently conducting levee patrols/inspections along the Mississippi River and providing technical Assistance as necessary. FIRST Atlanta was activated April 9, 2008 and is en-route to Little Rock Arkansas at Region VI's request, based on anticipation of additional severe weather. PDAs are on-going in Arkansas.

FEMA Region VII
RRCC is at Level III, 6:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. CDT (Mon-Fri). FEMA state liaison deployed to Missouri EOC.
(Denton MOC, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, USACE, USCG, (Region V, Region VII, Region VI, NWS, NSS, NGB,NICC, ADEM, TX SOC, IL EOC, ARC, MEMA, NOAA)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 5.0 earthquake occurred today, April 10, 2008 at 4:32 a.m. EDT off the coast of Oregon, 301 miles west southwest of Portland, OR at a reported depth of 6.2 miles. There have been no reports of damage or injury, and a tsunami advisory was not generated.

The USGS reported a cluster of ten earthquakes yesterday, April 9, 2007 in the Vanuatu Island/Loyalty Islands region, approximately 1,125 miles east northeast of Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. The earthquakes ranged in magnitude from 4.0 to 7.3, at an average depth of 21-23 miles. No damage was reported, and no tsunami warnings or watches were generated. (USGS, Pacific and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On April 9, 2008 the Governor of Ohio requested an Emergency Declaration as a result of a major snowfall during the period of March 7-9, 2008.  The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance Category B (snow removal assistance) for 24 counties.

On April 9, 2008 the Governor of Indiana requested a Major Disaster Declaration and Individual Assistance for the counties of Alexander, Franklin, Gallatin, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Marion, Massac, Perry, Pulaski, Randolph, Saline, Union, White and Williams. The request is due to flooding that occurred in Indiana in March of 2008.

FEMA DR-1749-MO is amended to add an additional 48 Counties for PA.
FEMA DR-1751-AR is amended to add an additional 5 Counties for IA and 19 Counties for PA.
The JFO for FEMA DR-1747-IL is closing April 25, 2008.
The JFO for FEMA DR-1745-TN is closing April 25, 2008.
The JFO for FEMA DR-1731-WA is closing April 25, 2008. (FEMA HQ)