National Situation Update: Sunday, January 27, 2008
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Significant National Weather
West: The storm off the Southern California coast will move ashore into Sunday, January 27. Between the storm center and a strong sub-tropical jet stream over Baja, a significant amount of moisture will funnel into Southern California.
From Santa Barbara County to San Diego County, 1 to 4 inches of rain could fall and some hills and mountains could pick up 5 to 10 inches of rain. Rainfall rates could exceed one inch per hour at times. Strong thunderstorms are possible with hail and water spouts.
Snow levels will rise to between 6000 and 7000 feet by early Sunday, January 27 which will add rapidly melting snow to the excessive rainfall. Possible flooding and mudslides will cause problems across Southern California. Snow levels will drop to 4000 feet Sunday, possibly bringing snow back into I-5 between Los Angeles and Bakersfield (the Grapevine).
Wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph in Southern California with some gusts in the mountains to 70 mph are expected.
On Sunday, January 27, 2008, the heavy rains and flash flooding will shift inland across southeast California, southern Nevada, Arizona and southern Utah where local rain totals in the lower mountain elevations could reach 1 to 4 inches.
Northeast: Over the weekend, an upper-level disturbance will move west to east across the Northeast, bringing snow shower to the region Sunday, January 27, 208. At the same time, low-pressure will intensify well east of the Delmarva Peninsula.
On Monday, the deepening storm over the western Atlantic will develop a huge circulation, generating high surf along the East Coast and possibly bringing strong gusty winds plus some rain and wet snow to southeastern New England.
Showery rain will sweep through Tuesday into Wednesday with some ice or sleet toward the Canadian border and ending as snow as much colder air and gusty winds arrive in the wake of the cold front. Lake-effect snow will again develop down-wind of Lakes Erie and Ontario midweek.
A slow-moving storm from out of the South will take aim on the region Friday and next Saturday with rain over the southern Mid-Atlantic, a wintry mix from interior Pennsylvania and southern New York into southern New England and snow from the remainder of Upstate New York to northern New England. (NWS, Media Sources)
CA Severe Weather Preparations
Federal Response
FEMA NRCC:
FEMA HQ has placed the Atlanta FIRST Team on alert for possible response for California Winter Weather Operations.
US Coast Guard notified for possible movement of Atlanta FIRST Team within the next 24 hours from Atlanta, GA to California.
The NRCC is maintaining situational awareness.
FEMA Region IX:
Region IX liaison is in contact with the state, and continues to monitor the situation through their Duty Officer and will be able to respond, if requested.
The southern COES REOC will maintain contact with the Pasadena JFO.
Pasadena JFO:
The Severe Weather Contingency Plan has been activated in preparation to support the State, if needed and requested.
Primary actions include maintaining situation awareness with duty officer, division supervisors and liaison to REOC.
Reviewing and contacting ESFs, establishing planning assumptions and outlining operational actions.
Transportation corridors will be monitored.
Immediate life saving / life support, if necessary/needed, will be coordinated immediately with FCO and region.
CA Local EOC Activations:
All Southern and Coastal Counties have been polled.
San Bernardino County remains activated.
Anticipated Evacuations in Orange County:
The Orange County Sheriff's Department, Fire Authority, and County Executive Officer have issued a voluntary evacuation order for residents of Mojeska, Harding, Silverado and Williams Canyons effective 12:00 pm PST, January 26, 2008.
A mandatory evacuation order for special needs residents (disabled or impaired, special medical needs, etc.) went into effect at 12:00 pm PST, January 26, 2008.
A shelter at El Modena High School in Orange opened at 4:00pm PST, January 26, 2008. The numbers of people affected by the mandatory evacuation will be firmed up January 27, 2008 and is expected to be around 2000. The number of people expected to be sheltered is less than 10. (FEMA HQ, FEMA Region IX, FEMA-1731-DR-CA JFO, CA OES)
Pacific Storm Moves In, Brings Threat of Slides
Throughout Orange County the region braces for a sprawling Pacific storm that could drop 5 inches of rain in the eastern canyons and foothills, possibly causing mudslides and flooding. A flash-flood watch is officially in effect across Orange County.
The first rains will last through Sunday, with the storm calming by Monday, National Weather Service officials said. Showers are forecast for Sunday along with a chance of thunderstorms, which could create additional problems for the burn areas. Even though thunderstorms cover a small area, they can drop a lot of rain in a short period, said a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
Wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph are expected to blow throughout the county; with gusts of up to 50 mph. Winds are expected to be especially strong along the coast. Gale warnings have been issued at the beaches, with winds between 25 and 35 knots, said a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
The American Red Cross of Orange County has set up a shelter for residents in the Santiago burn area at El Modena High School in Orange. Voluntary evacuations have been ordered for Modjeska, Santiago, Silverado, Harding and Williams canyons. The evacuations could become mandatory. The shelter will accommodate more than 200 people. The Red Cross is urging people to register at the shelter, regardless if they choose to stay there.
A National Weather Service forecaster said rainfall totals will be in the two-inch range across the coastal plains but that's enough to cause localized flooding, and lots of runoff. The Orange County Water District says it will likely capture 2 billion gallons of water from this storm, and the ones earlier in the week. The runoff will be diverted into the county's groundwater table.
With even more rain and snow preparing to batter an already water-logged Southern California, public works crews went into damage-control mode, racing to shore up canyon hillsides saturated by two heavy storms that pummeled the region this week.
Rain-slicked roads were blamed for dozens of crashes on Orange County roads and highways, leaving a 56-year-old woman dead and several others injured. In the Mountain High Ski Area, a third fatality was confirmed as a result of three avalanches on Friday, January 25, 2008, according to City News Service. A fourth person was pulled out alive from the snowdrift.
Even with the evacuation warnings, it is unclear how many people will choose to leave their canyon homes. During one of the last evacuations that residents faced, only 90 people are believed to have left the canyons.
"Our fear is that people will become numb to these notices and look at us like the boy who cried wolf," a Captain of the Orange County Fire Authority said. "But what we want them to remember is that in the end, the wolf came." (Media Sources)
Midwest Flooding Update
Indiana: Flood Warnings continue for the Kankakee River at Shelby, Indiana, affecting Lake and Newton Counties. Minor flooding is occurring, and is forecast to continue, but has been forecast to fall below flood stage by Tuesday, January 29, 2008.
Illinois: Flood Warnings continue for the Kankakee (near Wilmington), Rock and the Illinois Rivers through late Wednesday night, January 30, 2008. Major flooding is occurring with no significant changes expected in river conditions. Warmer temperatures and rain forecast late Sunday, January 27, 2008 into Monday, January 28, 2008 may weaken the ice jams.
Wisconsin: Ice jamming continues along the Rock River between Beloit, WI, and Afton, WI, with moderate flooding of streets and homes.
No significant changes are expected to occur in the next 24 hours. (FEMA Region V, NWS)
Tropical Weather Outlook
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Monday, 28-Jan-2008 07:44:57 EST