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National Situation Update: Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Midwest
Rain will develop over the midsection of the nation and expand across many areas on Wednesday, November 21, 2007. A few severe thunderstorms may develop across the Ohio Valley.  Cold air will enter into the Great Lakes area on Wednesday, November 21, 2007 and set up a lake-effect snow situation. Parts of northern Indiana will see their first lake-effect snow accumulations of the season. Lake effect snow will also fall across western Michigan. Northeastern Ohio will likely see some accumulations by Thursday night, November 22, 2007.

Northeast
Colder air will slowly work its way into the Northeast on Wednesday, November 21, 2007 and move across the entire region on Thursday, November 22, 2007.  Rain is forecast from northwest Pennsylvania and western New York up to northern New England where it may become a wintry mix. Precipitation will work its way eastward toward the East Coast from November 23-24, 2007

West
Snow showers will cover parts of the western landscape on Wednesday, November 21, 2007.  Snow will fall from Montana down the Front Range into Denver. Parts of the Denver area may see from two to four inches. 

South
Showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly west of the Mississippi River and will spread eastward to Tennessee and Alabama on Wednesday, November 21, 2007. Thunderstorms may become severe from southeast Texas and Louisiana to Kentucky and tornadoes are also possible. 
There will be some rain around the drought-plagued areas of the Southeast on Wednesday, November 21, 2007 but rainfall will generally average a half inch or less across these areas. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Possible Return of Santa Ana Winds to southern California

Los Angeles & Ventura Counties:
Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - Humidity levels expected lower in wind exposed areas.
Lighter offshore winds continuing Wednesday night, November 21, 2007 through Friday morning, November 23, 2007.  (It does not appear that critical red flag thresholds will be met)
Late Friday and Saturday, November 23 - 24, 2007 - Stronger offshore wind event late Friday into Saturday morning.
Potential wind gusts to 55 mph near favored mountain passes and canyons of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
 Potential for significant drying trend, humidity possibly falling into the single digits.
 If computer model trends continue with this scenario, a fire weather watch will likely be posted. 

San Diego & San Bernardino:
Friday night and Saturday, November 23 - 24, 2007 - Strongest winds below the Cajon Pass, and over the Santa Ana Mountains and foothills with gusts up to 50 to 60 mph.
 The strong winds will be highly localized.
 Relative humidity and temperatures will also be low.

All Areas of Concern:
Sunday and Monday , November 25 - 26, 2007 - A low pressure system approaching Pacific Northwest will bring end of significant winds on Sunday.
Higher humidity expected in all areas on Monday. (FEMA Pasadena JFO)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings affecting U.S. interests.
(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Media Sources)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)