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National Situation Update: Saturday, November 17, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West:
The next low-pressure area and cold front may come ashore tonight.  This system will move rapidly eastward across Montana and into the northern Plains tomorrow.  Showers and mountain snow will dominate the Northwest through the weekend.  High temperatures will be slightly below average along the coast but as much as 5 to 15 degrees above average across the Desert Southwest, Rockies and high Plains.

Midwest:
A dry "clipper low" will move from Iowa to West Virginia.  Light snow will fall north of the low's track across the southern Great Lakes and light rain will fall south of the track across the northern Ohio Valley.  Highs will range from the 30s and 40s in the Great Lakes region (as much as 11 degrees below average) to the 60s and 70s in Kansas (7 to 12 degrees above average).

South:
Under high pressure the Region will be clear and dry but a freeze is likely from the Carolinas to northern Florida this morning as temperatures in some areas could drop into the 20's.  A disturbance riding eastward along the U.S.-Mexico border will trigger thunderstorms across southern Texas and Louisiana.

Northeast:
The retreating storm over eastern Canada will produce gusty winds and a few flurries over northern New England.  The fast-moving disturbance (clipper low) will move from West Virginia this evening to east of the Delmarva Peninsula by tomorrow.  Light snow will develop over southern New York and Pennsylvania later today, mixing with or changing to light rain east of the mountains.  Then light snow could spread over southern New England tonight.  High temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average right through Monday, 30s and 40s over much of the region, 50s in Virginia and 20s in northern Maine. (NOAA, National Weather Service,  Media Sources)

Update on Possible Santa Ana Event Next Week

The potential for large fire will become high over Southern California next Tuesday through Thursday as widespread, very strong Santa Ana winds blow and humidity becomes very low.  Winds will move north to east 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph and minimum humidity will be in the single digits and teens.  The potential for large fire will increase over portions of Central California next Tuesday through Thursday due to local gusty winds moving north to east and very low humidity.  Winds will be 12 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph over the wind prone areas and minimum humidity will be in the single digits and teens.  Expect initial attack to remain very light across the region through Monday, then become moderate to heavy especially over Southern California Tuesday through Thursday.  (NIFC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings affecting U.S. interests.

Bay of Bengal:
More than 1,100 people are reported dead after Tropical Cyclone Sidr, packing winds above 150 mph, battered Bangladesh, creating a 15-foot storm surge that destroyed houses, crops, and vital infrastructure.  United Nation's report indicated that more than 20,000 houses have been damaged in the hardest-hit districts, and that the death toll is expected to climb beyond the government's figures.  Aid workers struggled to help thousands of survivors, contending with roads that were washed out or blocked by wind-blown debris, in an effort to try to get water and food to those stranded by flooding from Sidr.

Bangladesh is a low-lying Delta region much like New Orleans, prone to seasonal cyclones and floods that cause huge losses of life and property.  In 1970, between 300,000 and 500,000 people were killed by a cyclone, and some 140,000 died in 1991.  After the 1991 cyclone, foreign donors and Bangladeshi government agencies began building emergency shelters-concrete boxes raised on pillars, each able to hold anywhere from a few hundred to 3,000 people.  More than 2,000 shelters have since been built. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Media Sources)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)