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National Situation Update: Sunday, November 11, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West
The first of two cold fronts will move southward through Wyoming, Utah, Nevada and California on Sunday producing rain and mountain snow from the San Joaquin Valley to the Teton and Big Horn Mountains.  The upper-level portion of this front may help to generate gusty, drying, north-to-northeast winds over southern California Monday and possibly trigger a few showers over Arizona.  In the mountains, as snow levels drop to 6,000 feet behind the front, 3 to 6 inches of snow will accumulate over the higher terrain. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 30s, 40s and low 50s north of the front and in the 50s, 60s and 70s (low 80s Desert Southwest) south of the boundary.  The second cold front will impact the Pacific Northwest on Monday and may produce more wind and rain than the first.

Midwest
Ahead of the first cold front moving across the Dakotas on Sunday, high temperatures will range from the 50s to the high 70s in the Plains and Mississippi Valley.  Southerly winds will increase moisture across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes while an upper-level disturbance will result in showers from eastern Iowa and Missouri to Ohio and northern Kentucky.

Northeast
The Northeast will be dry on Sunday with partly to mostly sunny skies.  Lows will be in the 20s across much of the region and in the teens from the Adirondacks in Upstate New York to the mountains of northern Maine.  Highs will be up to 10 degrees below average, with 30s in northern Maine and 50s in the Virginias.

South
Isolated showers are possible Sunday in the lower Mississippi Valley from Louisiana to Arkansas and western Tennessee.  West of this area - across Texas and Oklahoma - skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Highs will be well above average, with widespread readings in the 80s.  Across the Southeast, conditions will be sunny and cooler, with temperatures at or slightly below seasonal levels. Highs will range from the 50s in northern North Carolina to the 70s across Florida and the Deep South. (NWS, Media Sources)

Cosco Busan Oil Spill Update

The Governor of California declared a State of Emergency on November 9, 2007.  The Unified Command relocated to Treasure Island and consists of the U.S. Coast Guard (lead agency), California Department of Fish and Game (Oil Spill Prevention and Response) and a representative of the responsible party.  The estimated oil spilled remains at 53,570 - 58,000 gallons.  Over 700 personnel were involved in containment activities yesterday.  Approximately 9,500 gallons of oil and water were recovered on Thursday, for a total of 20,500 gallons to date.  A total of 21 recovery vessels and eleven skimmers worked oil clean-up and 28 Dept. of Fish and Game / Oiled Wildfire Care Network staff worked wildlife recovery, including 15 experienced volunteers. (California OES SITREP, USCG SITREP)

California Wildfires Support Update

Federal assistance efforts continue throughout southern California, with concentration on debris removal and fire mitigation opportunities for declared counties.  Firefighting resources continue demobilization, with 585 firefighting personnel currently assigned.  The American Red Cross (ARC) reports one ARC managed shelter remains open with a total population of 73 individuals. (JFO Situation Status Summary, Pasadena, CA; NIFC)

California Rethinking Earthquake Safety Assessment Method for Hospital Buildings

California state building regulators are considering the use of a new technology to determine whether hospitals will crumble in an earthquake.  Similar to a seismic affects program used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the computer model examines how buildings are expected to hold up based on ground motion, soil composition, building construction and fault distance.  The California Hospital Association supports the method as a more sophisticated and accurate determination of earthquake risk.  If approved, compliance deadlines for at least half of the estimated 1,100 hospital buildings now slated for improvements could be extended to 2030. (Media Sources)

Disaster Activity

No new disaster activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a weak area of low pressure.  Thunderstorm activity has increased; however, significant development is not anticipated before it moves inland over Central America in a day or two.  This system could produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua during the next few days.  Otherwise, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone activity affecting U.S. interests. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)