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National Situation Update: Friday, November 2, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Southern California Wildfires Update

The California OES reports that of the six active fires, only the Santiago and the Poomacha are not 100% contained.  Mandatory evacuation orders remain in effect for both areas, affecting about 3,000 residents.  Officials expect full containment of the Santiago Fire by Friday, November 2, and containment of the Poomacha Fire by Monday, November 4, 2007.  There are 8,066 personnel involved in fighting the fires.  Over 500,000 acres have burned within 7 counties since October 21.  Approximately 3,097 structures were destroyed and 509 structures damaged.  Fatalities remain at 7, with 124 fire victims and 114 firefighters injured.  As of Wednesday night, October 31, seven American Red Cross (ARC) managed shelters had a population of 113 individuals.  In addition, 188 people were sheltered in 17 non-traditional shelters such as state parks and RV parks.  The ARC has distributed more than 173,700 meals on mobile routes, fixed sites, and all traditional shelters.  Over 12,500 registrations for Individual Assistance were completed as of November 1, 2007.  More than $2 million dollars has been disbursed through the Individual and Households Program (IHP). (JFO Situation Status Summary, Pasadena, CA and the United States Forest Service)

Southern California Weather Status

After a period of cooler temperatures, a trend toward warmer temperatures and lower humidity can be expected on Friday, November 02, 2007.  A Fire Weather Watch for 35-40 mph winds has been issued for Saturday, November 3, 2007. Pre-positioned assets include 94 engines and 15 crews staged at the Chino Mobilization Center and available for initial attack, if needed. (NWS)

Tornado Outbreak Sets October Record

A total of 87 tornadoes were reported in the United States from Oct. 17-19 - a new record outbreak for the month, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. The outbreak also contributed to the monthly total of 105 tornado reports - the second highest for October, behind the 117 tornadoes in October 2001.  Records date back to 1950.  The three-day outbreak surpasses the record of 63 tornadoes in five days from southeast Texas to Florida and Georgia in 1997.  According to the Storm Prediction Center, the factors that contributed to the October, 2007 outbreak were two weather systems that were present over the country,

the location of the jet stream, and the moisture streaming inland from the Gulf.  This set-up allowed for two different tornado-spawning systems to occur simultaneously over the United States.  One system produced six tornadoes in the coastal regions of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle.  The other system accounted for the remaining 81 tornadoes reported over a large portion of the central U.S. from southwestern Missouri to middle Tennessee, and from central Mississippi through lower Michigan.  The Storm Prediction Center states that these storms are a reminder that tornadoes can develop any time of year, and anywhere, and emphasizes monitoring severe weather forecasts through media sources including NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards. (NOAA) http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071031_tornado.html

National Weather

South
As a result of Hurricane Noel, the North Carolina outer banks will face strong northerly winds, 35 to 45 mph with higher gusts, along with bands of showers on Friday.  The South should expect sunshine Friday and throughout the weekend.

Northeast
As Noel continues northward, gusty winds and rain can be expected in New England by late Friday with heavy rains and strong winds anticipated for the weekend.  High temperatures will be near or slightly below average through the weekend.

West
Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected throughout the West Friday and into the weekend.

Midwest
Most of the Midwest will experience clear weather conditions through the weekend.
(NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Noel Now a Category One Hurricane
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Noel was located about 675 miles west-southwest of Bermuda and about 470 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Noel is moving toward the north-northeast between the southeastern United States and Bermuda near 18 mph.  This motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph with higher gusts.  Noel is a Category One hurricane on the Saffir/Simspon hurricane scale.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours; however, Noel is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become a powerful extratropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.  Satellite, surface and aircraft observations indicate Noel has grown in size during the night.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles, mainly to the north and east of the center; and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles.  Noel is expected to produce rainfall amounts of up to one inch across the outer banks of North Carolina with isolated maximum totals to 6 inches across eastern New England.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings affecting US interests. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)