• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Thursday, November 1, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Southern California Wildfires Update

The United States Forest Service reported that as of 9:30 p.m. PDT, there are five active fires, three of which were 100% contained within the last 24 hours.  The Slide fire has burned 12,789 acres; the Witch fire has burned 197,990 acres; and the Harris fire has burned 90,440 acres, all of which are now 100% contained.  The Santiago fire has burned 28,445 acres and is 90% contained.  The Poomacha fire has burned 50,156 acres and is 85% contained.
A total of 3,606 structures have been destroyed or damaged and 1,700 structures remain threatened.  Approximately 517,705 acres have been consumed.  There have been seven confirmed deaths and 124 injuries attributed to the fires.  182 persons are being housed in 7 Red Cross shelters throughout southern California.  A total of 5,456 customers are without power.  (CA Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, NICC, FEMA HQ, DOE, and JFO Situation Status Summary)

Southern California Weather Status

Weak Santa Ana winds are expected to develop Friday night into Saturday in southern California.  Local wind gusts in canyons and passes may top off at 40 mph on Saturday; well below what was measured during the wildfire "outbreak" early last week.(NWS)

California Advisory Board issues "Earthquake Advisory"

Following Tuesday evening's 5.6 magnitude earthquake near San Jose, California, the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC); a panel of scientists chaired by the State Geologist that advises the Director of the Governor's Office of Emergency Services (OES) on the scientific validity of earthquake forecasts and seismic activity, in areas where damaging earthquakes have occurred in the past, issued an advisory statement.

"CEPEC believes that this evening's earthquake has significantly increased the probability above the normal level for a damaging earthquake along the Calaveras and/or Hayward faults within the next several days.  However, the overall likelihood of such an event is still low.  Scientists will be continuing to monitor the situation and advise OES of any changes."

The earthquake occurred near the junction of the Calaveras and Hayward faults in the southern San Francisco Bay Area.  Both of these faults are known to be active faults capable of producing large, damaging earthquakes.

The "advisory" applies to the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Monterey, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Solano and Sonoma.  The OES recommends that residents of the San Francisco Bay region review their family emergency plans.  The OES also recommends that government agencies and businesses review their plans as well.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Regional Weather

South
As Tropical Storm Noel accelerates northeastward, eventually becoming a conventional "extratropical low" in the open ocean, the epicenter of the strongest coastal winds should gradually shift out of Florida to parts of the Carolinas and Virginia Tidewater Thursday night into Friday.  By Friday morning, frequent gusts to 40 mph can be expected in the Outer Banks of North Carolina and the Low Country of South Carolina. 

Northeast
A few light showers will be generated along and ahead of a cold front over interior New England and Upstate New York.

Highs will be in the 60s along and east of I-95 from Boston to Washington, D.C.  Behind the cold front, highs will be in the upper 40s or low 50s.

Midwest
High pressure will be the dominant weather feature Thursday.  It will be sunny and high temperatures will be fairly close to seasonal averages.

It will be in the forties from northern Minnesota to northeast Ohio.  Fifties will span from North Dakota to southern Ohio.  The central Plains will be in the sixties.

West
Plenty of sunshine can be expected from the Rockies to the West Coast Thursday.  Highs should top out in the 40s & 50s in the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, 60s & 70s in California and the Four Corners, and 80s or 90s in the Desert Southwest.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico - Tropical Storm Noel
Tropical Storm Noel is located about 115 miles southwest of Nassau, Bahamas and about 180 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.  TS Noel is moving toward the north at six mph, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with higher gusts. 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.  A Tropical Storm warning is in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the Government of Cuba cancelled the Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southeastern Florida coast from Ocean Reef to Deerfield Beach.  A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from north of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida. 

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings affecting US interests.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Over 40 aftershocks have occurred in the vicinity of Alum Rock, CA near San Jose, CA following the 5.6 magnitude earthquake that occurred Tuesday night.  Media reports only minor damage and no injuries associated with the quakes.

A 3.7 magnitude earthquake occurred in northern California at 6:54 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, October 31, 2007.  The quake was located five miles north-northeast of Alum Rock, CA, and nine (9) miles northeast of San Jose City, CA, at a depth of 4.7 miles.  There were no reports of damage or injuries.

A 5.9 magnitude earthquake occurred in The Aleutian Islands, Alaska at 9:44 a.m. EDT, Wednesday, October 31, 2007.  The quake was located 83 miles west southwest of Adak, Alaska, at a depth of 21.7 miles.  There were no reports of damages or injuries, and no tsunami bulletins were issued.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, NOAA, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)