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National Situation Update: Thursday, October 18, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Midwest
Severe thunderstorms producing heavy rain, hail, and strong tornadoes are forecasted to move eastward from the central Plains through southern Iowa and Missouri overnight.
There is also a threat of severe thunderstorms with tornadoes from southeastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and western Michigan moving southward through western Kentucky.
High temperatures are expected to range from the 40s in the northern Plains and sections of the Upper Midwest to the 80s in southeast Missouri, Indiana and Kentucky.

South
Severe storms and some strong tornadoes are expected to move eastward from Oklahoma and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Ahead of a cold front, severe weather may move east into Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama bringing much needed rain to areas of the south suffering from drought, especially from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into South Carolina.
High temperatures ranging from the 60s to the 90s are expected thoroughout the region.

West
A strong storm system bringing strong, gusty winds and heavy rain is moving toward the Pacific Northwest and is forcast to impact the region on Thursday.  Winds ranging from 30 to 40 mph with gusts as high as 65 mph are possible.
Flooding could occur in areas that experienced heavy rain over the past week.
High temperatures should range from the 30s in the northern Rockies to the 80s in southeast California and southwest Arizona.

Northeast
A storm system crossing the Plains is expected to bring rain and strong thunderstorms to the region.
Temperatures are forecast to be above average, ranging from the 50s in the north to the 80s in Virginia. (National Weather Service, Media reports)

Hazardous Weather Advisory - Plains and Midwest

The frontal system moving through the center of the country is producing severe weather in a broad swath from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast.  The severe weather is defined as thunderstorms and other weather phenomenon to include lightning, downbursts with gusty winds, localized flooding, hail and even tornadoes.  Yesterday the National Weather Service had a dozen unconfirmed reports of tornadoes in Texas, Missouri and  Louisiana with more widespread reports of hail and damaging winds.  The National Weather Service has issued a series of Hazardous Weather Advisories, Tornado Watches and Warnings for many states in the Plains and Midwest expected to last through the next 24 hours. The area of strongest convective activity is expected to move northward from Arkansas through the Mississippi Valley to Southern Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and the Ohio River Valley tonight.  There are no reports of widespread damage or deaths and there has been no request for federal assistance.(National Weather Service,  DHS  NICC, Media reports)

Drought spreads to Mid-Atlantic

The National Climate Data Center (NCDC) has reported that the southern drought spread to the Mid-Atlantic area in September.  According to the NCDC, approximately 43 percent of the United States is experiencing moderate to extreme drought.  The drought should persist from the Maryland-Delaware area into northern portions of Georgia and Alabama.  Tropical rains will lead to improvement along the Gulf and Southeast Coasts, with more limited improvement expected in other portions of the drought region.(National Climate Data Center, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/National Weather Service )

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Shower activity remains disorganized with the small area of low pressure centered about 60 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida.  Upper-level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for development as this system moves northward to north-northeastward over the next day or two.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical Storm Kiko is located about 290 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Kiko is moving to the east-northeast at 7 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph.  Based on the current warning the system poses no threat to land.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:48:27 EDT