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National Situation Update: Monday, October 8, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West: Except for isolated showers along a weak front from Oregon into western Montana, the region will be dry. Temperatures are forecast to be seasonable with highs ranging from the 40s in parts of the northern Rockies to the 90s in southwest Arizona and the lower Colorado River Valley.  However, frost advisories and freeze watches are posted for portions of Colorado and New Mexico for early in the day.

Midwest:  The cold front moving eastward will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from eastern North Dakota and the Upper Midwest southward through Missouri. The heaviest rain is expected in northern Minnesota and north-central Kansas and may produce localized flash flooding.  Elsewhere, only isolated showers and storms are forecast for the remainder of the Midwest as the front weakens as it moves east. Highs are expected to range from 40s in north-central Minnesota to 90s in the Ohio Valley and Kentucky.

South:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the moist air over eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, and the western Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, only stray showers or thunderstorms are forecast.  High temperatures are forecast to range from the 70s in the Texas Panhandle and much of Oklahoma to the 80s and 90s in other locations.

Northeast:  A stalled frontal boundary across New York State and New England will lead to some isolated showers and thunderstorms over much of the region except northern Maine. Unseasonably warm conditions will prevail south of New York. High temperatures will range from the 50s in Maine and the northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire to the 90s in Virginia and West Virginia.  (National Weather Service, Media reports)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
An area of low pressure centered between Belize, Honduras, and the Cayman Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas. Upper-level winds are favorable for development of this system during the next couple of days as it moves very slowly westward or northwestward.  An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue a few hundred miles north-northwest of Puerto Rico in association with a surface trough.  Significant development of this system is not anticipated due to strong upper-level winds.

An area of low pressure centered about 375 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands remains poorly organized.  Upper-level winds are unfavorable for development of this system as it moves northwestward at about 10 mph during the next day or two.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the Next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central and Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm 17W (Krosa) is approximately 229 miles South-southwest of Shanghai, China and poses no threat to United States territories.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity in the United States during the last 24 hours. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, NOAA, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, RX RRCC)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
States Most Affected: None.
National Fire Activity:  No new activity to report (National Interagency Coordination Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA Regions, HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:50:48 EDT