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National Situation Update: Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Activity

South
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of the eastern Carolinas, southern Georgia, Florida and southern Alabama on Wednesday.  Isolated thunderstorms from Arkansas back to central and western Texas along a frontal boundary.  A tropical system may bring rain to coastal areas of Louisiana or the upper Texas Coast by Thursday night.
Temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s, slightly cooler in the mountains.

Northeast
It will be sunny in the Northeast today except for a few light showers from New England to Delaware; temperatures will range from the 60s to the 80s.

Midwest
The Midwest is forecast to have sunny skies and mild temperatures across much of the region.

West
The Pacific Northwest will be cooler with frequent showers and snow showers in the higher elevations. Rain and wind will extend from northern Idaho and western Montana southward into western Wyoming. (NOAA,  NWS, media sources)

Hurricane Prediction Update

The Colorado State University forecast team has released their prediction for October-November.  They are predicting four named storms with two to become hurricanes; one of which is expected to become a major hurricane.  Dr. Gray was quoted as saying, "We expect La Nina conditions through this fall.  La Nina conditions tend to reduce the levels of vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, and therefore, the end of the Atlantic basin hurricane season will likely be extended this year." (Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Severe Storms and Tornadoes

Strong storms with reported tornadoes swept across Missouri.  Damage was reported in Montgomery, Wayne, Marion, Monroe, Shelby, Scotland, and Polk Counties.  Local media reports some power outages.  There have been no requests for Federal Assistance, the State and local authorities will be assessing damage after daylight. (FEMA Region VII, Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico have the potential to evolve into a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next day or so; it is moving to the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph. 
A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a weak surface trough.  Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for significant development of this system.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Multiple earthquakes continue near King Cove, AK ranging in magnitude from 3.0 to 6.2 there are no reports of damage or injuries and no tsunami bulletins have been issued.  (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)  

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Five Public Assistance Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDAs) teams have traveled to Indiana in support of the Governor's request for joint PDAs in seven Indiana counties as a result of severe storms and flooding that occurred August 15 - 27, 2007.   
 (FEMA Regions, HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 1
States Most Affected:  Kentucky (1), Virginia (1).
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, October 2, 2007:

  • Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 132 new fires.
  • New large fires:  2
  • Large fires contained:  3
  • Uncontained large fires: 1
  • 2007 acres burned to date: 8,234,888

Weather Discussion: Winds will increase today across much of the West as a cold front moves across the region. Low relative humidity will combine with windy conditions in Southern California, the southern Great Basin, and parts of the Rocky Mountain area. Relative humidity will increase today in the Southeast in advance of a storm system.  (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1730-DR-TX, On October 2, 2007 the President approved a major disaster declaration for Texas for Tropical Storm Erin that occurred August 14 - 20, 2007.  This declaration provides Individual Assistance for six counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.
FEMA-3277-EM-TX, Amendment #1.  This amendment provides notice that the incident period for this emergency is closed effective September 5, 2007.  (FEMA Regions, HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:49:35 EDT