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National Situation Update: Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

South:
A wide area of low pressure between Florida and the Bahamas should continue to saturate the Florida coast with heavy rains and is expected to drift westward toward the Gulf of Mexico. This system has the potential for developing into a tropical storm.  A strong high pressure system from the north, combined with lower pressure around Florida, should produce gusty northeast winds and rough surf around the east coast of Florida as well as the beaches of Georgia. A few showers may drift northward toward coastal sections of North Carolina and Virginia. Westward, parts of the southern Plains and western Texas are expected to see isolated thunderstorms by this afternoon.  High temperatures should be mostly in the 80s but parts of Louisiana and Texas may see highs around 90 once again.

West:
An unusually strong Pacific storm system will likely bring scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Northwest and northern California eastward into Montana. Gusty northwest winds should prevail across the Interior West and northern Great Basin behind a cold front. Ahead of the front, strong southwesterly winds and low humidity will lead to increased wildfire danger in southern Nevada, western Utah, northwest Arizona and the interior mountains of southern California.  Temperatures could range from the 40s in Glacier National Park to over 100 in southwest Arizona. Most of the Northwest will see highs only in the 50s and 60s.

Midwest:
A severe storm front that produced thunderstorms across the Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday should weaken as it moves eastward on Wednesday.  The result is expected to be sporadic showers and thunderstorms from Missouri to northeast Oklahoma.  Thunderstorms are also likely by evening from eastern Montana to the western Dakotas.  High temperatures should range from the upper 50s near the Canadian border to the low 90s in isolated portions of southern Illinois.

Northeast:
A warm airflow from the southern Plains is expected to bring unseasonably warm temperatures to the Northeast through the final days of summer.  High temperatures across the region should be mostly in the 70s, although some 60s should be found in northern New England. 

National Weather Service To Introduce Changes To Severe Warning System

The National Weather Service is changing the way it issues severe weather warnings with a new system that switches from alerts based on county lines to notices aimed at specific communities. The new system uses radar and computer modeling programs to predict the moment a storm will hit a community or even certain crossroads. Experts say the new alerts, known as storm-based warnings, could reduce a warning area from thousands of square miles to a few hundred square miles. The new system will go into effect nationally on 1 October. The system will initially be limited to warnings for tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, floods and marine hazards and later it will be expanded to include other threats like extreme heat. (DHS NICC, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
"Invest 93"
A large area of disturbed weather ("Invest 93") over the western Atlantic, northern Bahamas, and the east coast of Florida is associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low.  There are no signs of organization at this time.  However, surface pressures are gradually falling and environmental conditions appear favorable for a subtropical or a tropical cyclone to form over the next day or two as the disturbance moves westward over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely bring showers, squalls, and locally heavy rains over portions of Florida during the next day or two.
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association with a tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Upper-level winds are unfavorable for development of this system.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Ivo
Tropical Storm Ivo continues to strengthen as it exhibits a well-defined upper-level outflow pattern.  The current intensity is set at near 57 mph.  The official intensity forecast shows strengthening to a hurricane in a day or two.   If Ivo moves farther north than expected it would encounter stronger upper-level westerlies, and would most likely weaken faster than indicated.  There has been a slight slowing in the estimated motion.  The center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near Latitude 14.7 North, Longitude 110.0 West.  Estimated minimal central pressure is 997 mb.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity affecting United States territories.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Texas: Public Assistance (PA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) for Hurricane Humberto are scheduled to begin for Galveston County on Thursday, September 20, 2007.  PA PDAs for additional counties have not yet been scheduled. (FEMA Regions, HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho 
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, September 18, 2007:

Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 129 new fires.
New large fires: 1
Large fires contained: 4
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres: 11
2007 acres burned to date: 8,056,257

Weather Discussion:  Mild weather is predicted to continue in southern California with gusty winds in the mountains.  Scattered showers are expected in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana with dry weather throughout the remaining western states.  (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)