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National Situation Update: Sunday, September 16, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West:
A cold front could bring showers to western Washington and northwestern Oregon Sunday afternoon, while a storm system may drift toward the West Coast producing spotty thunderstorms across California, Nevada and the Four Corners region.   High temperatures Sunday will be 5 to 15 degrees above average in the 70s and 80s across Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico.

Midwest:
Lows over Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley could potentially drop into the 30s and 40s, approaching record temperatures in a few locations. Milder air could enter Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan overnight.  High temperatures this coming week in the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Lower Michigan may rebound into the 80s while they tail off from the 90s to the 80s in Kansas. 

South:
A cold front is forecasted to dissipate over the southern Plains, taking away most of Humberto's rain, and move out over the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida.  Lows in Tennessee and western North Carolina Sunday morning will most likely be in the 40s while 50s push into southern sections of Mississippi and Alabama.  Highs are forecasted to be above average in Texas and Oklahoma (80s to mid 90s) but below average in Tennessee, north Georgia, and the Carolinas (70s).

Northeast:
The Northeast will most likely be rain free Sunday as a large area of dry Canadian high pressure becomes stationary over the region.  Morning lows Sunday and early Monday could be in the 30s, low 40s and maybe even a few upper 20s (in the typically colder valleys) across northern Pennsylvania, Upstate New York, and New England.  High temperatures may be up to 10 degrees below average, which translates into a range from the 50s in northern sections of New England to the 60s and 70s in the Virginias. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Coast Guard Update - Marine Environmental Protection - Evacuation of Kivalina - Kivalina, Alaska:

On September 15, 2007, almost all residents returned to Kivalina, AK, following the voluntary evacuation of approximately 208 residents due to fears that severe storm damage could cause the spill of approximately 233,700 gallons of diesel heating fuel from a nearby fuel tank farm.  While several sections of the village's seawall were degraded or demolished, no flooding of the village occurred. Approximately 38-feet of shoreline remain between the ocean and the threatened Alaska Village Electrical Cooperative (AVEC) fuel storage facility, where the seawall has been reinforced (residents have said that approximately 50 years ago the village of Kivalina was situated 1.5 miles from the ocean's shoreline).  A three-to-four foot storm surge is predicted for the next 24 hours, with a significant storm forecasted for Monday, September 17, 2007, and a second storm expected the following week.  Coast Guard Sector Anchorage is identifying response strategies and monitoring the situation at the Incident Command Post.  Sector Anchorage accessed the oil spill liability trust fund and requested support from the Pacific Strike Team (PST).  A four-person team, consisting of two Sector and two PST personnel were expected to arrive in Kivalina by September 16th for assessment.  AVEC and the City are developing a plan to transfer fuel from AVEC's exposed tanks to the village's other two fuel storage facilities. (USCG, FEMA-MOC-Bothell)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) - 2728 was approved on Saturday, September 15, 2007, for the Butler Two Fire in San Bernardino County, CA. 
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) - 2729 was approved on Saturday, September 15, 2007, for the Angel Fire in San Diego County, CA. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Depression Ingrid
At 11:00 pm EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Ingrid was located about 330 miles east of the Leeward Islands.  Ingrid is moving toward the west near 12 mph, but a turn back to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with minimal thunderstorm activity.  Some slow development is possible over the next couple of days as the system moves generally westward.

A large area of cloudiness and showers centered several hundred miles south of Acapulco, is slowly moving westward. Slow development of this system is possible over the next day or two.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity affecting United States territories.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Multiple earthquakes continue near the Island of Sumatra, Indonesia, ranging in magnitude from 5.1 to 5.9.  There have been media reports of damage.  No tsunami was generated.  (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Texas:  Joint IA Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) for Hurricane Humberto are scheduled to begin Monday September 17, 2007 in Jefferson, Galveston, and Orange counties.  Joint PA PDAs will begin in Orange County on Monday, September 17, with additional counties expected to be added.  (FEMA Regions, HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, September 15, 2007:?

Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 101 new fires.
New large fires:  4
Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  18
2007 acres burned to date: 7,745,895

Weather Discussion:  Thunderstorms are predicted today over northern California, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana, and Wyoming. Windy conditions will continue over the southern Sierras, Nevada, and Utah. (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)