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National Situation Update: Saturday, September 15, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West: An upper level low off the coast will produce scattered showers for northern California and Oregon. Later today a cold front will produce showers in the Pacific Northwest.  Thunderstorms are forecast from the Oregon Cascades and northern Sierra to the mountains of the Four Corners' states and Wyoming. High temperatures will range from the 70s across the Great Basin with the Desert Southwest exceeding 100.

Midwest: A cold Canadian air mass will lower temperatures to the 20s and 30s across the northern Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes this morning. Freeze warnings and frost advisories are in effect for Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Illinois - record lows are likely.  Precipitation will be confined to scattered showers across the Central Plains and lake effect showers around the Great Lakes.  High temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average - from the 50s in the northern Great Lakes to the 70s in Missouri and Kentucky.

South: The remnants of Humberto are moving offshore with the cold front so the region will be generally dry with high pressure moving in from the west. There will be a few showers and thunderstorms along the coast and the Florida Peninsula.  High temperatures will range from the 70s over northern sections of the region to 90s in southern Florida and southern Texas

Northeast: The morning will be wet for much of the mid Atlantic and New England but the precipitation will move offshore with the cold front. High pressure will produce dry but cool conditions for the remainder of the weekend.  Freeze warnings and frost advisories are in effect for Western New York and Northwest Pensyvalinia this morning.  High temperatures will range from the 50s in New England to the 70s in Virginia. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Storm Ingrid
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Ingrid was located about 575 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Ingrid is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph and a motion between west-northwest and northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend ward up to 50 miles from the center.

Based on the current warning the systems closest point of approach (CPA) to  Puerto Rico will be approximately 460 miles at 8:00 am EDT on Tuesday 18 September.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  Some slow development of this systems is possible over
the next couple of days as it moves westward about 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are centered about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico.  The activity is poorly organized at this time, however, some slow development is possible over the next couple of days as the system moves generally westward.

An area of showers and thunderstorms continues several hundred miles to the south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it moves toward the west or west-northwest.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
No activity to report.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity affecting United States territories.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There were no significant earthquakes in the United States during the last 24 hours.

Multiple earthquakes continue near the Island of Sumatra, Indonesia ranging in magnitude from 4.0 to 6.2.  There have been media reports of damage, but no tsunami was generated. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, September 14, 2007:

Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 93 new fires.
New large fires:  3
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  16
2007 acres burned to date: 7,594,105

Weather Discussion:  Thunderstorms, some with limited moisture, are expected mainly over northern California, Oregon, Idaho, westerm Montana, and into portions of Wyoming.  Windy conditions will prevail over the southern Sierras, Nevada, and Utah.  (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Iowa:  FEMA-1727-DR-IA was declared on September 14, 2007, for Severe Storms and Flooding from August 17 to September 5, 2007.
Fourteen counties were approved for Public Assistance.
All counties are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.   (FEMA Regions, HQ)