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National Situation Update: Monday, September 3, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hurricane Felix Discussion

Felix is moving quickly westward toward Central America as it maintains category five intensity.  An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft penetrated the eye twice during the past few hours.  The eye diameter has shrunk to 11 miles. The pressure is estimated to be 929 mb.

The advisory intensity is kept at 165 mph. The hurricane is moving in a rather straight line along a heading at about 20 mph.  The official forecast basically keeps the current direction of motion for the next 48 hours, with only a gradual decrease in forward speed.  After that a modest bend to the right is forecast, although not all of the models concur. 

Beyond that time the intensity forecast is greatly complicated by the exact track that Felix will take and the amount of time it spends over land. If the hurricane moves a little farther north than the official track during the 24-48 hour period, it will spend more time over water and would likely maintain a greater intensity during that time. If however it moves a little south of the official track, it would spend even more time over land and could weaken more quickly than indicated.

In addition, the forecast of restrengthening to hurricane status on day 4 assumes that Felix will in fact emerge over the Bay of Campeche.

As of 5:00 am EDT Monday, the Hurrevac model, given the present speed and direction forecasted by the NHC at 72 hours (on land), has Felix 368 miles south south-west of Cameron and Hidalgo counties in Texas, on Friday, September 8, at 5:00 am EDT.   Tropical force winds forecasted at that time extend out 115 miles.

Hydrometeorolgical Prediction Center (HPC) 5-day rainfall estimates call for 3-4 inches through September 8 for the Texas counties of Zapata, Webb and other counties bordering Mexico, as well as some coastal counties.  No predictive rainfall forecasts specific to the rain bands of Felix have been issued yet.  Typically, HPC will issue products associated with tropical systems 120 hours out, or starting as early as today.

National Weather Summary

South
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Texas to Mississippi and Florida.
The low pressure system that produced flooding across coastal sections of South Carolina and Georgia is expected to move further out to sea on Monday.

Northeast
The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are expected to be rain free through the week.
High temperatures are forecast to be up to 12 degrees above average.

Midwest
A few thunderstorms may develop across eastern North Dakota or northern Minnesota and then move into northern Michigan by Tuesday.
The Plains, Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley are expected to be rain free.
High temperatures are forecast to be 5 to 20 degrees above average south of North Dakota to Lower Michigan.

West
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast from the Sierras to southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.
High temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees above average in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming on Monday. (NOAA, media sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Felix moving quickly westward...New hurricane watches and warnings issued for portions of
Honduras...
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Felix was located
about 275 miles south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 490 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

Felix is moving toward the west near 21 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track the center of Felix will be near the coasts of extreme northeastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras early on Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph, with higher gusts.  Felix is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible during the next day or so, but Felix is expected to maintain category four or five status during this period.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Warning from Limon Honduras eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border, and a Hurricane Watch from west of Limon westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica and for Grand Cayman. 

Other Tropical Activity - Atlantic
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles remains limited and disorganized.  The circulation continues to be well-defined, but upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for development.  There is still some potential for this system to become a tropical depression during the next couple of days.  

The weak low pressure system that has dumped flooding rain from Charleston to Savannah along the Southeast Coast will move slowly east-northeastward over the Atlantic over the next few days, allowing the worst of the rain to end. Although conditions are not favorable for development in the short term, this low could begin to take on tropical characteristics in a few days.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Henriette
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT on September 3, 2007, the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located about 145 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico and about 280 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Henriette is moving toward the northwest near nine mph.  This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for southern Baja Peninsula from La Paz southward on the east coast and from Santa Fe southward on the west coast.

Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity impacting US interests is not expected during the next 48 hours. 
( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, FEMA Regions II, IV, VI, FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 4.7 earthquake occurred in southern California, eight miles west-northwest of Lake Elsinore, California, on September 2, 2007, at 1:29 p.m. EDT.  The reported depth of the earthquake was 7.6 miles.  There have been no reports of damage or injury, and no tsunami warning issued.

A magnitude 4.5 earthquake occurred in the Kodiak Island Region of Alaska, 24 miles west-northwest of Akhiok, Alaska, on September 2, 2007, at 9:01 p.m. EDT.  The reported depth of the earthquake was 0.6 miles.  There have been no reports of damage or injury, and no tsunami warning issued.

Several additional earthquakes ranging in magnitude of 4.8 to 5.4 continued through Sunday, September 2, 2007, in the vicinity of the Santa Cruz Islands.  A magnitude 6.9 earthquake was reported in the Santa Cruz Islands, 60 miles south of Lata, Solomon Islands, on September 1, 2007 at 9:05 p.m. EDT.  There have been no reports of damage or injury, and no tsunami warning issued. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Illinois: Individual Assistance (IA) PDAs will begin on September 4, 2007; and Public Assistance (PA) PDAs will begin on or about September 9, 2007 in six counties. Region I is supporting.
Indiana: A PDA for Lake County is scheduled to begin September 5, 2007.
Ohio: PA PDAs for seven counties will begin on September 4.  Region II is assisting.
Oklahoma: IA and PA PDAs are continuing. (FEMA Regions, FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  4
States Most Affected:  Montana (13), Idaho (10).
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, September 2, 2007:

  • Initial Attack Activity:  Heavy with 302 new fires.
  • New large fires:  3
  • Large fires contained:  4
  • Uncontained large fires:  34
  • 2007 acres burned to date:  6,992,476

Greys Creek Fire:   A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  Thirteen miles south of Council, Idaho.  Structures remain threatened.  Evacuations and area closures are in effect.  14,630 acres with 30% containment.

Sawmill complex Fire (three fires):   A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  Twenty-two miles southeast of Missoula, Montana.  Structures remain threatened.  Evacuations are in effect.  60,027 acres with 22% containment.

Ahorn Fire: This incident is being managed by the same team managing the Fool incident. Thirty miles west of Augusta, Montana.  Structures remain threatened.  Evacuations and area closures in effect.  Precipitation occurred over the fire area yesterday.  51,654 acres with 20% containment.(National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, Incident Information System)

Weather Discussion:  Weather conditions will continue to be warm, dry, and windy in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana.  California will also remain hot and dry along with thunderstorms in the southern part of the state.  Gusty winds are predicted for the Great Lakes area.  The southeastern states will be dry except for thundershowers over the Gulf Coast states. (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:51:12 EDT