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National Situation Update: Sunday, September 2, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hurricane Season in Peak Month

With Felix becoming a hurricane yesterday, 2007 only ties this stage of the eerily quiet 2006 season, which by Labor Day weekend had accounted for only six named storms and one hurricane.

By Sept. 1, 2005, that year's record-breaking season had produced 13 named storms, six of which were or would become hurricanes.

This year has seen five tropical storms (one was actually "subtropical"), and only Dean and now Felix became hurricanes.

An oceanographer for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. said the Atlantic sea surface temperatures that fuel hurricanes have been somewhat cooler than the past few years.

He also indicated that the factors forecasters are watching - the jet stream which has remained stubbornly north, the possibility of a late-developing La Nina, and Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean sea surface temperatures -  are ripe for late-season hurricane development.

By late June, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were all over 80 degrees Fahrenheit. That's one thing that hurricane forecasters watch for because sea surface temperatures of 80 degrees Fahrenheit or warmer are needed to power tropical depressions into tropical storms and grow them into hurricanes.

A specialist at the National Hurricane Center indicated that what has been a quiet season now is reaching its busy time, traditionally the two weeks on either side of Sept. 10.

Hurricane season ends on November 30. (Media Sources)

National Weather Summary

South
Local rain amounts of over six inches may affect the coastal plains of South Carolina, the lower Savannah River Valley, southeast Georgia, and northeast Florida through early next week.
An upper-level low moving westward into the southern Plains may bring several inches of rain to parts of south Texas and the Texas Gulf Coast.  This low may also bring moisture northward, increasing thunderstorms across eastern Texas, Louisiana, eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.  High temperatures will range from the mid-80s to mid-90s from northern Tennessee to Texas on Sunday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s in the southern Appalachians and north Georgia.

Northeast
The northeast region of the country is expected to be mostly sunny and rain free for the next five days.  High temperatures will be near average on Sunday with high temperatures on Labor Day mainly in the 80s, with Boston likely near 90. 

Midwest
Dry conditions are expected across the Plains and Midwest through the Labor Day weekend.  A few strong thunderstorms are forecast across the Upper Midwest near the Canadian border.  Temperatures on Sunday and Monday are expected to be in the 80s and lower 90s from the Plains to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, with mainly 70s from northern North Dakota to Upper Michigan.

West
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to be confined to the Four Corners states on Labor Day.  High temperatures as much as 5 to 20 degrees above average remain forecast from California to Montana, Wyoming and Colorado.  Highs are forecast to be between 105 and 120 degrees in the Desert Southwest, in the 90s to low 100s across the Sacramento Valley and Nevada Great Basin, and the upper 80s to mid 90s across the lower elevations of southeast Oregon, southern Idaho, eastern Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Felix... Felix strengthens to a Category TWO hurricane as it passes Bonaire...
At 5:00 a.m. AST (EDT) the center of Hurricane Felix was located about 400 miles south-southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and about 85 miles east-northeast of Aruba.

Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.  On this track the center of Felix will pass very near to the north of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao during the next few hours and into the open waters of the central Caribbean Sea later today and tonight.

Data from a Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts.  Felix is a Category TWO hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Some strengthening is forecast and Felix could become a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
 
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica.
 
Felix is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with possible maximum isolated amounts of 6 inches over the offshore islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
 
A strong tropical wave
located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is moving west-southwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  This wave has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or two.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Henriette
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT on September 2, 2007, the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located about 350 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baha.  Henriette is moving toward the west at nine mph.  The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings along the Mexican Coast.  Maximum sustained winds are near 69 mph with gusts to 86 mph.  Henriette could become a hurricane later this morning (September 2, 2007).

Tropical Depression Gil
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT on September 2, 2007, the center of TD Gil was located about 920 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California.  Present movement is toward the west-northwest at about 9 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are approximately 29 mph with higher gusts.  Gil is expected to become a remnant low in the next 12 hours and dissipate in the next three days.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity impacting US interests is not expected during the next 48 hours. 
( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, FEMA Regions II, IV, VI, FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred in the Gulf of California, 56 miles northeast of La Paz, Mexico, on September 1, 2007, at 3:14 p.m. EDT.  The reported depth of the earthquake was 6.2 miles.  Three additional earthquakes of magnitude 4.1, 4.6 and 4.7 also occurred in the vicinity.  There have been no reports of damage or injury, and no tsunami warning has been issued.

The USGS reported that at 9:05 p.m. EDT, a 6.9 magnitude earthquake occurred 65 miles south-southwest of Lata, Santa Cruz Island, in the Solomon Islands.  The earthquake occurred at a depth of 96.6 miles. A second earthquake struck the same area at 10:34 p.m. EDT the magnitude was 5.4 and the depth was 24.9 miles. There are no reports of damage or injuries.  The NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued a Public Tsunami Information Statement indicating there was NO tsunami threat due to this event.
(NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Illinois:
Individual Assistance (IA) PDAs will begin on September 4, 2007; and Public Assistance (PA) PDAs will begin on September 10, 2007 in Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Lake, LaSalle, and McHenry Counties.

Indiana:
A PDA for Lake County is scheduled to begin September 5, 2007.

Ohio:
PA PDAs in Allen, Crawford, Hancock, Hardin, Putnam, Richland, and Wyandot Counties will begin on September 3, 2007 and continue on September 4, 2007.

Oklahoma:
IA and PA PDAs are continuing.

Wisconsin:
Region V reports additional PA PDA requests are expected September 2, 2007.
(FEMA Regions, FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  4
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, September 1, 2007:

Initial Attack Activity was Moderate with 281 new fires (50% of the new fires were in CA)
New large fires:  5
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires:  36
2007 acres burned to date:  6,971,593

Castle Rock Fire (Sawtooth National Forest):  A Type 1 Incident Management Team (IMT) is assigned to this fire which is located eight miles west of Ketchum, ID.  There are evacuations in the area.  As of 11:45 p.m. EDT on September 1, 2007, 47,859 acres have burned and there is 81% containment of the fire.

Butler Fire (San Bernardino National Forest): A 100 acre fire started at Hwy 18 between Snow Valley and Big Bear Dam at approximately 12:30 p.m. PDT on September 1, 2007.  Highway 18 is closed between Snow Valley Ski Area and the Big Bear Dam.  There are no evacuations at this time; however, a precautionary warning of a possible evacuation of the recreational camps in the area has been issued.

Fire Weather Discussion:   Thunderstorm activity will decrease in the West and shift eastward today.  Gusty winds are expected from the northern Sierras to Idaho and Montana.  Otherwise, hot weather will continue over the West.  Dry, windy weather is expected over the northern Great Lakes through Sunday.  The Southeast will be dry except for thunderstorms over the Gulf Coast states and Carolinas.

Red Flag Warning in eastern Montana and western North Dakota for low relative humidity.( NOAA, National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, Incident Information System)

Disaster Declaration Activity

North Dakota - On August 31, 2007 the Governor requested a Major Disaster Declaration for Grand Forks County, North Dakota.  The request was made due to damages that occurred on August 26 & 27, 2007 from an EF-4 tornado, accompanied by high winds, heavy rain, and driving hail.  The Governor is requesting Individual Assistance and Public Assistance as well as statewide Hazard Mitigation assistance.