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National Situation Update: Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hurricane Flossie Update

At 5:00 am EDT (1100 pm HST) the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 153.2 West or about 260 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii and about 455 miles southeast of Honolulu Oahu. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue overnight. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts. Flossie is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 155 miles. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb/28.64 inches.

A tropical storm warning continues for the big island of Hawaii. A hurricane watch continues for the Big Island of Hawaii...

The Big Island will see the onset of tropical storm force winds 39 mph and higher directly associated with Hurricane Flossie mid-morning today. East to southeast winds of 40 to 50 mph with higher gusts are likely as Hurricane Flossie passes south of the Big Island during the day today. Any shift in the forecast track towards the north (closer to the Big Island) will result in higher winds.

The forecast track of Hurricane Flossie will bring 15 to 20 ft surf to south facing shores of the Big Island. Surf along east facing shores of the Big Island will be 8 to 12 feet .

Heavy showers and thunderstorms within outer rainbands may produce 10 inches or more of rainfall in kau district on the Big Island through tonight. Smaller amounts of 5 to 10 inches may fall on the east slopes of the Big Island through tonight.

The County of Hawaii Civil Defense reported that Punaluu Beach Park, South Point, Vacationland, Whittington Beach Park and the Mauna Kea access road from the 9000 ft elevation have been closed. All schools including the University of Hawaii-Hilo and both Hawaii Community College campuses and all public parks on the Big Island of Hawaii will be closed on Tuesday.

The NRCC monitored a conference call held with the State of Hawaii, the National Weather Service, the Coast Guard, FEMA Region IX, and local, county state and federal partners at 1400 Hawaii Time- 20:00 Eastern Standard Time.

The Governor has declared a state of emergency. The proclamation allows the state and county governments to access the State Disaster Fund. It also allows the National Guard being preparations for any response they may be called upon to perform.

The National Guard has been placed on alert and has its MOC up and monitoring the storm. The guard has also ordered liaisons out to the county EOCs

The state is working with the FAA and the airline carriers to ensure the customers are informed of what actions they must take to be safe and secure.

The other concern raised is the Cruise ships that are scheduled to be in the state. There are at least three  ships that will need to be planned for. The cruise ships have an emergency sortie plan.

No Federal assistance has been asked for at this time. Region IV reports that a ERT A should be on the island today. Region is anticipating it will be at 24 hour operations tomorrow. (Central Pacific Hurricane Center, State of Hawaii, the National Weather Service, the Coast Guard, FEMA Region IX, NRCC)

National Forecast Summary

West: The region will be generally dry with isolated precipitation in Nevada and the Four Corners states with the Colorado Rockies getting the most significant showers and storms. High temperatures will be near to above seasonal means with Highs ranging from the 60s along many Pacific beaches to over 110 in the lower Colorado River Valley and Death Valley.

Midwest: A frontal system from a low over Canada will extend across the Great Lakes and the upper Midwest. Severe storms and heavy downpours are forecast for portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Illinois this morning and moving eastward into Michigan, northern Indiana and northern Ohio this afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 70s to 100s, north to south, with the triple-digit heat searing Kansas, Missouri, much of southern Illinois and far western Kentucky.

South: Record or near-record heat is forecast for most of the region from Texas and Oklahoma eastward into Tennessee and Georgia. High temperatures in the 100s will be widespread. West Texas, along the Gulf Coast, throughout Florida, and in the Carolinas will have temperatures in the 90s. The tail end of a frontal system will produce precipitation over southern Georgia, northern Florida and southern Alabama. Showers and storms will be more numerous in south Florida from tropical moisture.

Northeast: Under high pressure dry weather is forecast for the region with temperatures near or a bit below average. (National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Depression Four has maxium sustained winds of 34 mph, gusting to 47 mph was located 855 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and about 1660 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. A continued brisk and generally westward motion should continue during the next couple of days while the cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a deep layer ridge. The depression could be come a tropical storm today and based on the current advisory it should be located 140 miles from Puerto Rico early Sunday morning.

Eastern Pacific:
As discussed above Hurricane Flossie is 260 miles Southeast of Hilo
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low pressure located about 600 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California remains limited and disorganized. upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development of this system.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No new systems affecting U.S. interests.  ( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

An earthquake of 5.4 magnitude was recorded Tuesday, 1:38 am EDT 25 miles South of Hilo Hawaii, at a depth of 6 miles. There are no reports of damage or injuries and no tsunami was generated. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

• National Preparedness Level:  5
• States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming
• National Fire Activity as of Monday, August 13, 2007:
  • Initial attack activity: Light (176)
  • New large fires: 13
  • Large fires contained: 5
  • Uncontained large fires: 52
  • 2007 acres burned to date: 5,590,643 
• Weather Discussion: Winds decreasing today, however gusty winds will still be common over portions of northern California, southeast Oregon, Nevada, eastern Idaho, and western Wyoming. Isolated thunderstorms with limited moisture are possible over portions of Wyoming, southern Montana, eastern Idaho, and portions of Nevada. Hot, dry conditions will continue in southern California. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)