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National Situation Update: Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Northeast:  Precipitation in most of the northeastern US will be sparse or absent today, July 24, 2007 as a coastal storm dissipates over the interior.

A concentration of showers and thunderstorms will be in western Virginia and West Virginia, and maybe extreme southwestern Pennsylvania, underneath a low pressure system aloft.

South:  Scattered showers and storms will strike the southern US, although the eastern Carolinas, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, Arkansas, and much of Louisiana should remain dry.

Midwest:  Most of the Midwest and Great Plains will stay dry today, July 24, 2007. Showers and storms may hit parts of Ohio and Kentucky underneath a low pressure area, and an isolated storm or two could strike in the Upper Midwest. 

The northern Plains will remain hot with high temperatures over 100 in the western Dakotas and northwest Nebraska.

West:  Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered across the West today, July 24, 2007 reaching from Idaho and western Montana southward into New Mexico, Arizona and parts of southeastern California.

Most of the activity will be in the mountains with dry lightning in parts of the Great Basin.
High temperatures are forecast to over 100 in southeast California, southwest Arizona, eastern Montana and far northeast Wyoming.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Wind Damage in Williston, North Dakota

A severe thunderstorm produced a local downburst at the Williston North Dakota airport (in Williams County) early Monday morning, July 23, 2007.  The Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at the airport recorded a 75 mph wind gust at 4:18 am CDT.

The Williams County Emergency Manager indicated that nearly all of the damage was confined to the airport property, some of it extensive.  There was major damage to three aircraft hangars, minor damage to three storage buildings, and damage to two single engine aircraft and one twin engine aircraft.   (NWS)

Texas: Severe Storms and Flooding

Numerous showers and thunderstorms developed over the Hill Country through the weekend (July 20 - 22, 2007). The storms produced one to two inches of rain per hour, and in some instances 3 to 4 inches per hour.

The hardest hit counties were Uvalde, Kinney, Medina, and Maverick. Radar estimates indicated over 12" of rain fell in some locations in Medina County. Isolated rainfall totals of 6 to 12" were also reported.

In Medina County, the town of D'Hannis was heavily impacted by flash flooding of local tributaries on Saturday, July 21, 2007. The majority of the town was under water. Swift water rescues were conducted throughout the day.

The City of Hondo opened a shelter for residents who were evacuating from the D'Hannis area. Another shelter was opened in Hondo, and the American Red Cross in San Antonio mobilized to support the shelters. As of Sunday July 22, 2007, there were a total of 133 individuals occupying the shelters.

In Bandera County, there was an evacuation at a summer camp for teenagers involving 230 children. As the water receded, Texas Parks and Wildlife (TPWD) game wardens assisted in evacuating the campers, where they were transported to a safe location.

On Friday night July 20, 2007, Guadalupe County had a high wind event, where one residence and one business sustained roof damage. The National Weather Service Austin / San Antonio is surveying the impact area to evaluate the possibility of a tornado touchdown.

In Hays County, there was reported road damage and the Texas Department of Transportation (TXDOT) is evaluating the situation.

There was a swift water rescue in the Dry Frio River near Reagan Wells in Uvalde County on Saturday, July 21, 2007. One person was rescued from a stranded vehicle. There were no reports of injuries or fatalities.

The Texas Division of Emergency Management is continuing to monitor this situation and local responders are assisting citizens in their areas.  (FEMA Region VI)

CO Alpine Mudslide

On the evening July 21, 2007, heavy rains of up to three inches caused mud slides up to six feet deep in Alpine, Chafee County about 20 miles southwest of Buena Vista, CO. 

The Colorado Department of Emergency Management (CO DEM) reports up to 30 homes evacuated with about 80 people sheltered at Buena Vista High School.  There have been no injuries or deaths reported.

Local jurisdictions are responding as necessary.  CO DEM is monitoring the situation.  The Chafee County Board of County Commissioners has requested a Damage Assessment Team from the state. 

Region VIII is monitoring the situation and coordinating with CO DEM as necessary.  There is no request for Federal Assistance at this time.   (FEMA Region VIII)

Murphy Complex Fire, NV

The Murphy Wildland Fire Complex, located 30 miles Southwest of Twin Falls, Nevada, started on July 15, 2007, in Idaho, has moved into Nevada, has burned 567,721 acres, and is 15% contained.

The Nevada Counties affected are Elko, Owyhee and Twin Falls. There are 200 residences, 20 commercial properties and an undetermined number of outbuildings that are threatened. 

Communities that may be threatened within 48 hours including the towns of Jarbidge, Gold Creek, and Mountain Home Air Force Training Range.  Fifteen (15) communities near the Snake River, including Mountain City to the South, may be threatened within 72 hours.

Several communities remain under a mandatory evacuation order within the fire area.
Power remains out to several communities (approximately 1,300 citizens) in Northern Nevada and Southern Idaho due to destruction of a power transmission line.

The fire is expected to spread to the south-southeast with no forward spread expected to the northern portions of the fire.  Growth potential for this fire and the difficulty of the terrain is rated extreme.

Weather conditions are 15 mph winds from the North, 95 degree temperature and 15% humidity. The projected final size of the fire is estimated at 1,000,000 acres. Expected containment date for the fire is August 4, 2007. 

An FMAG request was approved on July 23, 2007.  (FEMA Region IX)

Poll: Residents Would Ignore Evacuation

About one in three people living in Southern coastal areas said they would ignore hurricane evacuation orders if a storm threatened their community, up from about one in four last year, according to a new poll.

The survey released early Tuesday, July 24, 2007 found the most common reasons for not evacuating were the same ones that topped last year's Harvard University poll: People believe their homes are safe and well-built, that roads would be too crowded and that fleeing would be dangerous. Slightly more than one in four also said they would be reluctant to leave behind a pet.

The Harvard professor who directed the survey said the mild 2006 Atlantic hurricane season probably put more coastal residents at ease.  "It just shows how people can become complacent if they're not immediately threatened," the professor said.

Residents were asked how worried they are about hurricanes, what supplies they have in their homes, how confident they are about being rescued and how else they had prepared for possible storms. The poll found 78 percent felt prepared if a major hurricane struck their community in the next six months.  Thirty-one percent of respondents said they would not evacuate. Another 5 percent said their decision would depend on the circumstances.

The telephone poll surveyed more than 5,000 people 18 or older in coastal areas of eight Southern states: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas. All participants lived within 20 miles of the coast.

This year's survey differed from last year's by including more respondents and restricting the survey area to within 20 miles of the coast instead of 50 miles. Researchers went back to the 2006 data and separated respondents who lived less than 20 miles from the coast for comparison. Last year, 23 percent of those respondents said they would not evacuate.

The survey also looked specifically at about 500 residents of the New Orleans area, which was hit hard by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The survey found that six in 10 people in that area did not know the location of an evacuation shelter, compared with four in 10 elsewhere.  New Orleans respondents also were less confident they would be rescued if necessary - 54 percent as opposed to 69 percent elsewhere.

Harvard School of Public Health researchers designed the study, which was funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It was conducted between June 18 and July 10, 2007 and had a sampling error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.  (Media Sources)

Wind Threatens As Crews Tackle Utah Fire

Fire crews wrestled with a huge wildfire Monday, July 23, 2007 that forced the evacuation of several small communities in central Utah, and strong winds threatened to spread the flames.  Rain showers and increased humidity during the weekend had helped crews keep the nearly 29-square-mile fire from spreading.

On Monday, July 23, 2007 however, afternoon thunderstorms were expected to produce wind gusting as high as 50 mph, a fire information officer said. There was already enough wind early Monday to carry smoke from the blaze 90 miles north to Salt Lake City.  The fire started Thursday, July 19, 2007 and remained about 15 percent contained Monday, July 23, 2007.

The small towns of Oaker Hills, Indian Ridge, Elk Ridge, Indianola and Holiday Oaks had been evacuated, officials said. A spokesman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency said a shelter was set up at a school in Mount Pleasant.

Dozens of other large fires were burning across the West, primarily in Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Utah, the National Interagency Fire Center said. Fire managers were worried that dry lightning storms in some of those states could spark further blazes, though the systems were expected to bring rain Tuesday, July 24, 2007 the agency said.

A wildfire in southern Idaho had covered more than 880 square miles, growing by about 200 square miles in just 24 hours during the weekend. Fire officials said it threatened tracking and radar facilities at Mountain Home Air Force bombing and firing range, which is used by pilots training for duty in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Mandatory evacuations remained in effect for the tiny town of Jarbidge, NV; an evacuation order for Murphy Hot Springs was lifted for residents only. A lot of grazing land burned, and cattle likely died in the fast-moving blaze, a fire spokeswoman said.    (Media Sources)

Fire-Fighting Pilot Dies In Calif. Crash

A helicopter delivering water to firefighters battling a blaze in the Klamath National Forest crashed Monday, killing the pilot, authorities said.  Investigators were trying to determine what caused the chopper to go down in "extremely rugged" mountain territory about 12 miles southeast of Happy Camp in Siskiyou County, said a U.S. Forest Service spokesman.

The pilot, who was not identified, was under contract with the Forest Service but was not a government employee the spokesman said. The pilot was the only person on board.

The helicopter was carrying a large water container to refill hand-pump backpacks for firefighters on the ground. Some firefighters saw the helicopter crash and reported it to emergency dispatchers.

More than 1,100 fire crews were battling the cluster of about 30 lightning-sparked fires covering 14 square miles near the Oregon state line. The fires, which started July 10, 2007, had threatened up to 550 homes near the town of Happy Camp, but none has been destroyed.

Fire crews wrestled with dozens of huge wildfires across the West on Monday in Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Utah, the National Interagency Fire Center said.  Fire managers were worried that dry lightning storms in some of those states could spark further blazes, though the systems were expected to bring rain Tuesday, July 24, 2007 the agency said.

In northern Idaho, a lightning-caused fire had raced across 31 square miles and destroyed nine buildings at a hunting outfitter's ranch, a fire spokesman said.

In Montana, a nearly 14-square-mile fire burning on the edge of Lewis and Clark National Forest prompted an evacuation order for 40 summer homes. Many were unoccupied, said a Lewis and Clark County Sheriff.   (Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG-2717 was approved on July 23, 2007 at 6:40 pm EDT for the Murphy Complex Fire in Nevada and Idaho.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical storm (TS) Dalila is centered about 212 miles south-southeast of Socorro Island, Mexico and moving north-northwest at 8 mph.  Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 mph with gusts to 51 mph.  Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.67 inches).

Elsewhere tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday afternoon, July 25, 2007.

Western Pacific:
No significant tropical activity to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant information to report. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new information to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  5
States Most Affected: Idaho, Nevada and Utah
National Fire Activity as of Monday, July 23, 2007:

Initial attack activity: moderate (203 new fires)
New large fires: 7
Large fires contained: 6
Uncontained large fires: 46

Predictive Services Discussion: Thunderstorm activity will increase in the West.  The number and coverage of thunderstorms will be on the increase as monsoon moisture spreads into the region.  Thunderstorms will be a mixture of wet and dry storms ovet the northern Great Basin, Montana and Wyoming with wet storms over the southern Great Basin and southern California.

Overall Situation Summary:  The National Interagency Fire Center moved to a Preparedness Level 5 on July 19, 2007 based on the current and expected fire activity throughout much of the West.  Preparedness Level 5 reflects the most severe fire situation.  This move was prompted by initial attack and large fire activity occurring in multiple geographic areas and a heavy commitment of crews, aircraft, and equipment to these incidents, along with a forecast for continued hot, dry, windy conditions.

Much of the west continues to be characterized by continued drought conditions, record-setting high temperatures, extreme fuel conditions, and widespread dry lightning storms.  This combination of factors recently in the West has resulted in multiple large fires in Utah, Nevada, California, Oregon, Idaho, Washington and Montana.

There were more than 1,000 new fire starts reported between Monday, July 16 and Wednesday July 18.  The high level of resources required for initial attack of these fires, combined with the large number of resources assigned to ongoing large fires means the nation's response capability is being spread thin.

Support of ongoing wildland fire activity is requiring a full commitment of tactical and support resources.  At this time we are not able to provide these resources to non-fire events.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1707-DR-Oklahoma, Amendment No.1 adds 10 Counties for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:51:24 EDT