• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Monday, July 16, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West: Much of the region will continue to be hot and dry with little significant weather. Scattered showers and storms will be limited to the Rockies and Intermountain region. Dry lighting from these storms has the potential to start fires. High temperatures will range from the coast north of Point Conception to over 110 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.

Midwest: A frontal system draped across the upper Midwest will produce rain showers and thunderstorms across the northern part of the region with the heaviest weather over Iowa. High temperatures will range from the 70s along the border to over 100 in parts of Nebraska and Kansas.

South: Showers and thunderstorms will extend along coastal areas from Texas to the Carolinas. The heaviest activity will be in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama. High temperatures reach into the 90s.

Northeast: The tail end of the cold front off shore New England lies across the Mid Atlantic and southern Ohio, A trough of low pressure extends south along the coast. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for much of the Mid-Atlantic.  The Northeast should remain dry. High temperatures are forecast from the 70s in northern New England to the 90s from in Virginia. (NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Hazards

Critical wildfire conditions are forecast across a large portion of the central great basin on July 16-18.
Much above normal temperatures are predicted for the northern Rockies and northern plains from July 16-19.
Flooding is expected in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and in the lower Mississippi valley from July 16-18.
Flooding is forecast to persist along the James River.
Severe drought will persist across the southeast, southwest, the western great lakes and the big island of Hawaii. Some relief is expected across portions of the southeast.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
On 15 July at 1100 pm EDT the final warning was issued on Tropical Depression 05-E center was located 830 miles South-southwest of the tip of Baja California. Movement was` toward the west-northwest at 14 mph. The system is forecast to dissipate within 24 hours.

On 16 July at 5:00 am EDT Tropical Storm Cosme was located about 1,800 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii. Present movement is toward the northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 63 mph  with gusts to 75 mph. Based on the current warning Tropical Storm Cosme will continue to track towards the Hawaiian Islands gradually increasing and then decreasing in intensity. At 2:00 am EDT on 21 July the system is forecast to be about 275 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii with winds of 35 mph with gusts to 46 mph.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There was a swarm of earthquakes during the last 24 hours in the Pacific just south of Nikolski in the Aleutian Islands 904 miles West-southwest of Anchorage, AK.  Intensities ranged from 1.0 to 6.0 and depths from 60 miles to the surface. There were no report of damage or injuries and no tsunami was generated.

A 6.7 earthquake was recorded on Sunday, July 15, 2007 at 09:13 pm (EDT) in the Sea of Japan 155 miles West-northwest of Tokyo Japan at a depth of 34 miles. Media reports indicate 5 fatalities, about 300 people injured and the collapse of some wooden structures.  There were reports of localized tsunamis but No Pacific wide tsunami was generated. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:   4
States Most Affected: Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Oregon
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, July 15, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Moderate (262 new fires)
• New large fires: 11
• Large fires contained: 7
• Uncontained large fires: 39

• Milford Flat:   Southwest Area, Utah State Division of Forestry Fire & State Lands. Three miles north of Milford, UT is 85% contained and has burned 363,052 acres. This fire has a containment date estimate of July 17, 2007.
  
• Egley Complex:   (six fires), Burns Fire Zone, Malheur NF. Is ten miles north of Riley, OR. Transfer of West Zone command from IMT 2 (Paul) to the IMT 1 today. Is 45% contained and has burned 94,748 acres. This fire has a containment date estimate of July 19, 2007.
  
• Black Pine 2, Sawtooth NF. IMT 2 (Grant). Started on private land eleven miles southeast of Malta, ID. is 65% contained and has burned 72,000 acres. This fire has a containment date estimate of July 16, 2007.
  
• Tongue Complex (three fires), Boise District, BLM. IMT 2 (Johnson). IMT also managing the Boulder Creek fire. Forty-five miles south of Silver City, ID is 10% contained and has burned 48,000 acres. This fire does not have a containment date. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)