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National Situation Update: Sunday, July 15, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West:  A front extending from a low in the Pacific will produce showers along the coast of Oregon and Washington.  The region will be generally dry except for isolated afternoon thunderstorms along mountain ranges.  High temperatures will range from the 90s into Montana and the triple digits in Desert Southwest.

Midwest:
Weak disturbances will continue to cross the Great Lakes as they rotate around a low pressure system dominating the eastern half of Canada.  The Great Plains will begin to dry out as the upper-level, high-pressure ridge that produced hot and dry conditions in the West expands slightly eastward.  High temperatures will range from 90s in the northern and central Plains with a few 100-degree readings in western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota.

South:  An upper-level disturbance the Louisiana-Arkansas border will produce locally heavy rain and thunderstorms from southern and eastern Texas to Mississippi. With the ground already saturated any additional heavy rain will likely produce flash flooding.  Scattered thunderstorms are also forecast for much of the Southeast and Florida.  However, fewer thunderstorms in north-central Texas and Oklahoma will allow rivers to recede.  Due to the cloud cover and rain, the high temperatures will be average or below average from the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Northeast:
A frontal system extending from a low in eastern Canada will produce showers and thunderstorms (some severe) from New England to the Mid-Atlantic. The front will stall along the east coast through tomorrow afternoon.  Highs will range from the upper 70s in Maine to the low 90s in the southern Mid-Atlantic. (NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
On 15 July at 5:00 am EDT Tropical Depression 06-E was located about 1945 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii. Present movement is toward the West-northwest at 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 29 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Based on the current warning 06-E poses no threat to the United States.

On 15 July at 5:00 am EDT Tropical Depression 05-E center was located 680 miles Southwest of the tip of Baja California. Present movement is toward the west at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 29 mph  with gusts to 40 mph. Based on the current warning 05-E poses no threat to the United States and is forecast to dissipate within 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
The final warning has been issued on Tropical Storm (TS) 04W (Man-Yi) as it will transition to an extratropical low within 12 hours. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  4
States Most Affected: Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Oregon
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, July 14, 2007:

Initial attack activity: Heavy (388 new fires)
New large fires: 11
Large fires contained: 6
Uncontained large fires: 38

Milford Flat:  Southwest Area, Utah State Division of Forestry Fire & State Lands. Three miles north of Milford, UT is 75% contained and has burned 363,052 acres. This fire has a containment date estimate of July 17, 2007.

Egley Complex:  (ten fires), Burns Fire Zone, Malheur NF. Is ten miles north of Riley, OR. Timber litter. It has a moderate fire behavior. Numerous structures remain threatened. Is 36% contained and has burned 83,200 acres. No expected containment date has been set.

Weather Discussion:  Thunderstorm activity and hot weather to continue in the West.
Thunderstorms are expected today in the Northwest, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and the Four Corner states.  Isolated drier storms are possible in the Great Basin and deserts of southern California.  Alaska will continue to see showers and thunderstorms. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, FEMA Region X, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:47:09 EDT