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National Situation Update: Friday, July 13, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
Rain will continue in the southern Plains on Friday and eventually down into flood-plagued Texas. With many rivers still close to or above flood stage any significant rain will make flooding more extensive. On Friday, thunderstorms will extend across parts of Arkansas and Louisiana, as well. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for the drought-stricken Tennessee Valley and Southeast.

Midwest
Scattered thunderstorms predicted from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Saturday and the Ohio Valley Sunday.
 
Northeast
Scattered thunderstorms will move across the Northeast on Friday. After a dry Saturday for most of the Northeast, another cold front will arrive Sunday, triggering a new round of scattered thunderstorms.
Scattered thunderstorms will prevail across the region on Sunday from New England down to the Middle Atlantic region.

West
High heat will be in place across the Interior West, especially from the Desert Southwest to eastern Washington, Idaho and Montana. Highs will range from between 100 and the low 120s in the Desert Southwest to the 90s and occasional low 100s in Montana.

Dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West may spark more fires and these conditions will likely prevail through the summer months.

Temperatures will be cooler west of the Cascades of Washington and Oregon all the way down to coastal sections of northern California through the weekend.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FEMA has approved Fire Management Assistance Grant #2712 for the Egley Complex Fire, Harney County, Oregon. Over 72,000 acres have burned. The fire has threatened Riley Community, 60 primary residences. Additional 10 primary residences also threatened east of Riley along Interstate 10. (FEMA HQ)  

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms with the area of disturbed weather centered about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have not become any better organized this evening.  However, this system has the potential for development over the next day or two as it moves to the west or west-northwest.

Western Pacific:
Typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa may reach as high as 69 mph with gusts to 103 mph.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A 4.6 magnitude earthquake was recorded at 5:10 p.m. EDT Thursday in the vicinity of the Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska, at a depth of 30 miles. Historically, there have been over 1,500 earthquakes within 65 miles radius of this occurrence recorded since 1973. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:   4
States Most Affected: Utah, Oregon, Wyoming, California
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, July 12, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Heavy (336 new fires)
• New large fires: 9
• Large fires contained: 8
• Uncontained large fires: 39
  Structure Loss 2007 Season year to date: Primary 589 (gain of 4), Commercial 29, Outbuildings 795
  Weather Discussion:   Scattered thunderstorms and hot weather continue in the West.  Thunderstorms, some with dry lightning, will spread further north today into the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, western Montana and western Wyoming.  Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms will persist over portions of northern California, Great Basin and the Southwest.  Hot weather will continue over much of the West.  In Alaska, the interior should see scattered showers and thunderstorms today.

The following fires have Incident Management Teams assigned to manage large scale wildfires (Type 1 IMT) and/or extreme fire activity:

Salt Lick Fire: Twenty-five miles from Pinedale, Wyoming.  Type 1 IMT.  Structures threatened.  Evacuations in effect.  2,000 acres with 0% containment. Estimated containment date July 31, 2007.

Milford Flat Fire:   Type 1 IMT.  Three miles north of Milford, Utah.  Structures, natural gas pipeline and geo-thermal power plant remain threatened.  351,549 acres with 40% containment.

Egley Complex Fire (six fires):   Type 2 IMT along with a Type 1 IMT.  Ten miles north of Riley, Oregon.   Numerous structures threatened.  Evacuations and periodic road closures remain in effect.  72,000 acres (gain of 17,000) yesterday with 30% containment reported. FMAG approved July 12, 2007.

Balls Canyon Fire:   Type 2 IMT. Ten miles east of Loyalton, California.  Extreme fire behavior with rapid rates of spread.  Numerous structures and power lines supplying Reno, NV threatened.  Closure of a portion of Highway 395 remains in effect.  4,746 acres (gain of 3,846) with 15% containment.

Antelope Complex (eight fires): Type 1 IMT. Twenty miles northeast of Quincy, California. Structures remain threatened. Mandatory evacuations of several communities and traffic delays on Highway 70 remain in effect. 22,902 acres. 83% contained.

Highway 93 Complex (two fires):  Type 1 IMT. Five miles southeast of Jackpot, Nevada. Structures remain threatened. Estimated at 80,533 acres. The complex is now estimated at 90% contained. Estimated date for full containment is projected for July 13, 2007 at 1800 hours. Estimated date for full control is projected for July 14, 2007. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, FEMA Region X, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)