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National Situation Update: Thursday, July 12, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West
Heat will persist in the Intermountain West Thursday. The high heat will trigger scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening, over the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains (except in Montana). Dry lightning may accompany some of the storms in the Great Basin. Farther east, a few severe storms could erupt over eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico.

The lower Colorado River Valley is expecting temps over 110.  Triple-digit heat will reach as far north as the Colombia Basin and southeast British Columbia.
 
South
Showers or thunderstorms confined to the immediate Atlantic coast and the Florida Peninsula.  Much of Texas will see decent weather with no rainfall.

Louisiana and Mississippi through Arkansas and Oklahoma, can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe.  By Thursday night, excessive rainfall is quite possible across portions Oklahoma and perhaps northwest Arkansas. The weather service warned that large storm complexes could exacerbate the flooding situation. 

Midwest
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are predicted from the Great Lakes and portions of the Upper Midwest through Missouri and Kansas. The heaviest downpours are likely to target Kansas.

Northeast
A few early morning showers will linger over Maine before clearing sets in, and a few evening showers may move into western portions of New York state and Pennsylvania.  (NWS, Media Sources)

New USGS Vehicle for Emergency Response

The US Geological Survey (USGS) Wetlands Research Center in Lafayette, Louisiana are getting ready to help with search and rescue efforts, should they be needed. Lafayette is in a hurricane zone and the agency wanted to have the vehicle in a place where it can respond quickly.

Inside the USGS vehicle is half a million dollars worth of potentially life-saving technology.  The self-sustaining mobile unit serves as communications command post in crisis situations.

The unit is equipped with a satellite phone in case there's no cell phone service, satellite internet and a single-side band marine radio. USGS workers can make and print out maps which can help out with search and rescue.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)  

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
As of 5:00 am Wednesday, Typhoon (TY) 04W (Man-yi), located approximately 288 miles south-southeast of Naha, Okinawa has intensified to 144 mph, with the eye diameter shrinking to 34 miles.  Typhoon Man-yi has slowed from its previous 23 mph forward speed 12 hours ago, and has now tracked northwestward at 15 mph over the past six hours.

Man-yi is forecast to pass 12 miles east of Kadena Air Base on the island of Okinawa packing sustained winds of 144 mph and 173 mph gusts at it center - equal to a Category 4 hurricane - as it moves past Okinawa on Friday before it proceeds towards southwestern Japan (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A 3.3 magnitude quake was recorded Wednesday at 11:53 p.m.EDT, 2 miles west of Canby, Oregon, at a depth of 13 miles. No damage reported.(NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

PDAs continue in Beaver County, Pennsylvania from the flooding and damage caused by the heavy rains that blanketed the Commonwealth on July 5.(FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:   4
States Most Affected: Idaho, Oregon, Washington, California, Alaska
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, July 11, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Moderate (215 new fires)
• New large fires: 10
• Large fires contained: 9
• Uncontained large fires: 42
  Structure Loss 2007 Season year to date: Primary 585 (gain of 7), Commercial 29, Outbuildings 792
  Critical resources: There is competition for most resources to include both Type 1 and Type 2 crews, Type 1 and Type 2 helicopters and Air Tankers. Resources are being shifted daily based on highest priority and Initial attack fires.

Weather Discussion:  Wide spread thunderstorms and hot weather in the west the next few days.  Thunderstorms and hot weather are expected across much of the west with some drier storms over Oregon, the Great Basin and Wyoming.  Alaska will have scattered thunderstorms along with cooler weather.

The following fires have Incident Management Teams assigned to manage large scale wildfires (Type 1 IMT):

Milford Flat Fire:   Type 1 IMT.  Three miles north of Milford UT.  Numerous structures, natural gas pipeline and geo-thermal power plant remain threatened.  Much of this incident is also on BLM land.  329,100 acres (gain of 17,998) with 20% containment.  Reinforcement crews arrived from Alaska, a crew from Illinois, and most of the western states.  More containment is anticipated with next update.  Thunderstorms and lower temperatures are helping firefighters.

Highway 93 Complex Fire (two fires):   Type 1 IMT.   Five miles southeast of Jackpot, Nevada.  Includes previously reported Eccies and West Basin fires.   Structures remain threatened.  79,672 acres (gain of 16,672) with 40% containment.

Egley Complex Fire (six fires):   Type 2 IMT committed along with a Type 1 IMT.  Ten miles north of Riley, Oregon.  Numerous structures threatened.  Evacuations are intermittent and road closures remain in effect.  35,000 acres (gain of 17,000) with 15% containment reported. The Governor of Oregon Governor declared a state of emergency and requested a Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG).

Birdie Fire: Type 2 IMT, with potential to be replaced by a Type 1 IMT.  Twelve fires south of Flagstaff Arizona. Structures remain threatened. 2,500 acres (gain of 700) with 50% containment reported.

Antelope Complex (eight fires): Type 1 IMT.  Twenty miles northeast of Quincy, California.   Structures remain threatened.  Mandatory evacuations of several communities and traffic delays on highway 70 remains in effect.  22,529 acres (gain of 163). 21% containment. 

Zaca fire:  A Cal Fire Type 1 IMT is assigned in unified command with a US Forest Service NIMO IMT.  Fifteen miles northeast of Buellton, California.  This fire has escaped on to federal protection responsibility into the San Rafael Wilderness Area making this a potential long duration incident.  Residences remain threatened.  10,400 acres (gain of 900).  37% containment reported.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, FEMA Region X, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)