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National Situation Update: Monday, July 9, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West: The region will be hot and dry. Precipitation will be limited to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Colorado and New Mexico Rockies, and the Plains from eastern Montana southward to eastern New Mexico. Dry lightning may start new fires. High temperatures are forecast to reach 110 in the deserts of Arizona and California with triple-digit readings as far north as northwest Nevada. During this coming week, the heat in the region will continue to expand as a ridge of high pressure aloft rebuilds.

Midwest:  A frontal system extending from the Great Lakes to the Texas Panhandle will produce precipitation from Michigan southwestward through Iowa and Missouri into the central Plains. Isolated severe storms may develop in the western Dakotas. High temperatures will be near to above early summer averages with readings from the 70s, to 90s, north to south.

South: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, from a broad upper-air low pressure trough, are forecast for most of the region. A few storms could become severe over western Oklahoma and parts of northwest Texas. High temperatures are expected to be near seasonal averages with readings in the 80s and 90s, although some locations in western Texas may top 100.

Northeast:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for much of New York, northern Pennsylvania, and New England from a stalled frontal system. A few of the storms could turn severe. Highs are forecast to range from the 60s in northern Maine to 100 in southern Virginia and Maryland.(NWS, Media Sources)

National Weather Service Hazards Assessment Valid 9 - 20 July

• Severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern north and South Dakota, all but extreme southern Minnesota, and northwest Wisconsin on July 10.
• Severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern Wisconsin, northeastern Illinois, northern Indiana, extreme northwestern Ohio and most of Michigan July 11.
• River flooding is likely for northeastern South Dakota, southeastern Kansas, parts of western Missouri, and northeastern Oklahoma July 9-10.
• River flooding is likely across central and eastern Texas July 9.
• Much above normal temperatures are likely over northeastern Washington State July 9-12.
• Much above normal temperatures are likely across central Nevada and central Utah July 9.
• Severe drought will persist across the southeast, southwest, and southern portions of Hawaii. Some relief is expected across portions of the southeast.
• Very dry fuels and the possibility of dry thunderstorms keeps an ongoing wildfire danger for southwest Montana, western Wyoming, most of Utah, the western three-quarters of Arizona, much of California and Nevada, southeastern Oregon and much of Idaho. (National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG-2710-SD was approved on 8 July for the Alabaugh Canyon fire near the town of Cascadean and three subdivisions, Fall River County, South Dakota. 5,000 acres involved, Fire is 0% contained. 110 homes, a transmission line, and a wild horse sanctuary are threatened.  20 homes have been destroyed. 

FMAG-2711-WA was approved on 8 July for the Easy Street Fire near the communities of Wenatchee, Chelan County, Washington.  250 acres involved, fire is 20% contained. 300 primary residents threatened and 300 people evacuated. Three homes reported destroyed (unconfirmed). Extreme fire behavior observed (FEMA HQ)  

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
A large elongated area of low pressure centered about 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Although this system has not become any better organized during the day it still has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next day or so before the low encounters cooler waters and stronger upper-level winds on Tuesday.
A smaller area of disturbed weather is located about 1350 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity has weakened during the day and development if any is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves generally westward around 15 mph.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm (TS) 04W (Man-Yi) located approximately 240 miles East-northeast of Yap, has tracked westward at 18 mph over the past 06 hours.  Based on the current warning TS 04W will continue to move away from Guam.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity in the United States during the last 24 hours.

Today at 2:50 am EDT there was a 5.5 earthquake in the South Pacific south of Fiji some 840 miles North-northeast of Auckland, New Zealand at a depth of 9.1 miles. No tsunami was produced.(NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

• National Preparedness Level:   3
  
• States Most Affected: Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon
  
• National Fire Activity as of Saturday, July 7, 2007:
  • Initial attack activity: Heavy (419 new fires)
  • New large fires: 24
  • Large fires contained: 13
  • Uncontained large fires: 55
• Weather Discussion:   The potential for thunderstorms continues over the northern sierra, southern Great Basin, and western Rocky Mountains area. Gusty winds will continue over the interior of Southern California across the extreme southern Great Basin and northwest Arizona.  The northern and central interior of Alaska will see continued warm weather with very low humidity and widespread thunderstorms. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb,  FEMA Region X, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)