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National Situation Update: Saturday, July 7, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West: The heat wave will break slightly this weekend but highs will still be around 100 degrees in Las Vegas and Phoenix. A weak frontal system dropping southward across the Northwest will produce slight cooling across the northern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Rockies and high Plains, lightning strikes may trigger fires.

Midwest: Most of the Midwest will be dry through the weekend. Temperatures will increase across much of the region today as a high pressure ridge aloft builds eastward. Highs at least in the 90s will encompass much of the northern and central Plains and will extend eastward across the Mississippi River. Temperatures in parts of South Dakota and western Nebraska will reach over 100 degrees.

South: The area of low pressure that produced so much rain over the southern Plains and eastern Texas will move eastward across the region this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered from the Gulf Coast to the southern Appalachians today and extending into the Carolinas tomorrow. Expect typical afternoon scattered thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula. High temperatures will reach the 90s from the eastern Carolinas, the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf Coast.

Northeast: A stationary front will remain in place across northern New York and northern New England through Monday. Look for a few severe thunderstorms across northern sections of New York and New England. Temperatures will become significantly warmer across the Middle Atlantic region today with highs in the 90s.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG-2704-NV was issued for the Red Rock Fire near the community of Red Rock, Washoe County, Nevada. 158 acres involved, Fire is 0% contained and is an immediate threat to 30 homes. 60 people have been evacuated. An additional 200-300 homes may be affected along with two large ranches, secondary roads, and a watershed.

FMAG-2705-NV was issued for the Elephant Fire near the community of Topaz Ranch Estates, Douglass County, Nevada. 800 acres involved, Fire is 0% contained and is threatening power lines and 300 homes.  50 people have been evacuated. (FEMA HQ)  

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
An elongated and weak low pressure area located about 125 miles east of Jacksonville Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the southern Florida peninsula northeastward into the Atlantic for several hundred miles. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development.
An area of low pressure is located about 350 miles east of the southern Windward Islands and is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph. Associated shower activity has mostly dissipated and environmental conditions remain unfavorable for development.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
A broad area of disturbed weather is located about 700 miles south of Manzanillo Mexico and is moving west-northwestward at around 10 mph.  Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more favorable for slow development of this system during the next couple of days.
An area of disturbed weather is located about 1350 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and is moving westward at 10 -15 mph.  While environmental conditions appear favorable for development...this system is poorly-organized and development if any is expected to be slow to occur.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for an area near 4.5N 148.1E, approximately 645 nm south-southeast of Guam. Winds in the area are estimated to be 17 to 22 mph. The system is moving west-northwestward at 7 mph. Based on the improved organization, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to good.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

• National Preparedness Level:   2
  
• States Most Affected: Alaska, California, Oregon, Utah
  
• National Fire Activity as of Thursday, July 5, 2007:
  
  • Initial attack activity: Heavy (365new fires)
  • New large fires: 3
  • Large fires contained: 1
  • Uncontained large fires: 16
    
• Neola North Fire, located three miles north of Neola, Utah, has consumed 42,465 acres and is 50% contained.  Structures remain threatened and the estimated containment date is unknown.
  
• Weather Discussion: Very hot, dry and unstable conditions will continue in the west.  Thunderstorms, some of them dry, are expected today over portions of the Four Corner states, the Great Basin, western Wyoming, northern California and Oregon.  The northern and central interior of Alaska will see hot weather with very low humidity along with some wet thunderstorms expected in the southern interior. The southeast will have scattered thundershowers.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb,  FEMA Region X, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1706-DR-Nebraska, Amendment No. 1   adds Thomas County for Public Assistance.

FEMA-1710-DR-New York, Amendment No. 1 adds Sullivan County for Public Assistance.

Oklahoma: On 7 July, 2007 the President declared a Disaster for the State of Oklahoma, FEMA-1712-DR, as a result of severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding beginning on May 24, 2007, and continuing. Two Counties were approved for Individual Assistance and all counties are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation program. The Federal Coordination Officer (FCO) will be Philip E. Parr.

The Joint Field Office (JFO) for 1703-FEMA-DR-KY in Frankfort, KY closed July 6, 2007 (FEMA HQ)